885
FXUS65 KTFX 250712
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1212 AM MST WED FEB 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR SNOW
SQUALLS TO SOUTHWEST MT WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- STRONG WINDS DEVELOP ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT, CENTRAL
MT, AND SOUTHWEST MT WEDNESDAY.
- THE STRONGEST WINDS DEVELOP THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, SPREADING
FARTHER OUT ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL MT PLAINS.
- ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSAGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL DROP
TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSER TO AVERAGE, AND BRING LIGHT SNOW.
DISCUSSION
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
THIS ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE REGION OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. A COLD FRONT WILL EXPAND SNOWFALL OFF OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE TO FARTHER EAST ACROSS CENTRAL MT OVERNIGHT. THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHWARDS THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL
PRODUCE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS, WHICH WILL BRING QUICK BURSTS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. WITH MARGINAL TEMPERATURES, SNOW WILL
LIKELY STRUGGLE TO ACCUMULATE AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER, IF
THERE IS A HEAVY SNOW SHOWER, THAN LIGHT SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS ON
PAVEMENTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SO FAR THE SNOW SQUALL THREAT IS
ISOLATED, WITH BETTER CHANCES BEING IN THE SOUTHWEST MT MOUNTAIN
PASSES. MOST OF THE SNOW WILL FALL ALONG THE FRONTAL PASSAGE,
WITH LIGHT SNOW LINGERING FOR A LITTLE BIT BEHIND THE FRONT.
WHILE THIS IS HAPPENING, THE MID LEVEL JET BEGINS TO PICK UP
ACROSS THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT WITH ACCOMPANYING SNOW SHOWERS
WILL HELP MIX DOWN THESE STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE.
BEHIND THE FRONT, A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS ALONG THE
ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST MT. THIS WILL KEEP
THE THREAT OF STRONG WINDS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. PEAK WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN THURSDAY AS THE MID LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS
AND SPREADS FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL MT PLAINS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL DIE DOWN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, BUT WILL
STILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS.
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY, A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO
THE HI-LINE REGION, BRINGING IN COLDER AIR AND LIGHT SNOW. THERE
REMAINS A LITTLE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR SOUTH THAT FRONT MAKES IT
INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL MT PLAINS, BUT ENSEMBLES HINT AT AT LEAST
TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO NEAR AVERAGE BEHIND THE FRONT. FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE PERSISTENT.
HOWEVER, THERE DOESN'T LOOK TO BE MUCH DISTURBANCES ALOFT, SO IT
WILL BE DRIER FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
WINDS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:
THE MID LEVEL JET WILL START TO PICK UP DURING WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THIS JET DOESN'T LOOK OVERLY TOO IMPRESSIVE AS IT ONLY PEAKS TO
65-75KTS AT TIMES. HOWEVER, THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE WEDNESDAY
COMBINED WITH CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD HELP MIX DOWN THESE
STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE ACROSS SOUTHWEST MONTANA. FURTHER
NORTH ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND CENTRAL MT, A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPING AND PEAK DAYTIME MIXING SHOULD HELP
WITH GETTING THESE STRONG WINDS TO THE SURFACE. THE SYNOPTIC SET
UP STILL GIVES GOOD CONFIDENCE FOR STRONG WINDS WEDNESDAY, SO THE
CURRENT HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS ON TRACK.
HEADING INTO THURSDAY, THE 700MB WINDS PICK UP EVEN MORE TO ~85KTS
AT TIMES ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. THIS WILL BRING THE
PERIOD OF STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT
THURSDAY. HIGH RES GUIDANCE STILL SHOW THAT AN EXCESS OF 90-100MPH
WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE CLOSE TO THE IMMEDIATE EASTERN
SLOPES. THE BEST WINDOW FOR THOSE PEAK SPEEDS WILL BE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WHERE DEEP DAYTIME VERTICAL MIXING WILL BE
THE STRONGEST. STRONG MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
WELL. EVERYWHERE ACROSS THE PLAINS, THE 700MB WINDS EXPAND FARTHER
EAST ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MT. STRONG WINDS REMAIN LIKELY, WITH
THE BEST WINDOW FOR MORE WIDESPREAD WINDS WILL BE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE BEST TIME FRAME WILL BE
THURSDAY FOR STRONG WINDS, THAT PERSISTENT STRONG 700MB JET WILL
KEEP THE THREAT FOR STRONG WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WITH THE
CANADIAN COLD FRONT BEGINNING TO MOVE SOUTH INTO THE HI-LINE
FRIDAY MORNING, HIGH WINDS UP THERE MAY BE CUT OFF EARLY. STILL
WITH A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE END END TIMING FRIDAY MORNING,
I'VE OPTED TO EXTEND THE END TIME THROUGH 11AM FRIDAY. ONE AREA
WHERE THE WIND DYNAMICS DID NOT LEAD TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IS HILL
COUNTY, SO THEY WERE LEFT OUT OF THE HIGH WIND WARNING UPGRADE FOR
THURSDAY.
SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MT WEDNESDAY MORNING:
GOOD OROGRAPHIC LIFT IN THE EVENING HAS LEAD TO A FEW INCHES OF
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO ALREADY DEVELOP ON ROGERS, MACDONALD, AND
FLESHER PASS. TO ACCOUNT FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS DUE TO
THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE EARLY THIS MORNING, A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY WAS ISSUED EARLIER IN THE EVENING. THE COLD FRONT HAS
STARTED TO START TO DEVELOP SNOW BANDS/SHOWERS FARTHER EAST ACROSS
LOWER ELEVATIONS. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH SOUTH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MT. A FEW
CONVECTIVE SNOW BANDS/SHOWERS AND OR SNOW SQUALLS WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT. BEST CHANCES FOR THIS WILL BE ALONG THE MOUNTAIN
PASSES. THE BOULDER HILL/ELK PARK AREA WAS ALSO ADDED TO THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY DUE TO BETTER CHANCES FOR STEADIER
SNOWFALL ALONG THE FRONT TO ACCUMULATE A FEW INCHES OVER A FEW
HOURS. I CAN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED HEAVY SNOW SHOWER/SNOW SQUALL
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS DURING THE MORNING. HOWEVER, WET BULB
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO GET TO FREEZING, WHICH WILL MAKE IT MORE
DIFFICULT TO GET SNOW TO ACCUMULATE. EXPECT WINTER DRIVING
CONDITIONS FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE, ESPECIALLY ALONG MOUNTAIN
PASSES AND THE I-90 CORRIDOR. -WILSON
AVIATION
25/06Z TAF PERIOD
AREAS OF PRECIPITATION AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD ARE MAINLY EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM ROUGHLY KHLN TO KLWT WITH PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH
OF THIS LINE. LOW-VFR/MVFR CLOUD CEILINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHWEST MT TERMINALS WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF IFR CIGS/VIS AT KEKS AND KBZN BETWEEN 10-14Z
WHEN THERE IS A RISK FOR CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WITH
GUSTY WINDS. IN ADDITION TO THE GUSTY WINDS WITH SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS SW MT WEDNESDAY MORNING, GUSTY/STRONG WESTERLY SURFACE
WINDS DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH-
CENTRAL/CENTRAL MT. MOUNTAIN WAVE TURBULENCE AND LOCAL INSTANCES
OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR DEVELOPING UNDER THE STRONG MID LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THURSDAY. HOENISCH
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 48 34 50 36 / 10 0 0 0
CTB 43 29 45 27 / 0 0 0 10
HLN 46 27 51 31 / 30 0 0 0
BZN 49 23 52 27 / 60 0 0 0
WYS 40 11 35 15 / 80 10 0 0
DLN 46 23 48 27 / 50 0 0 0
HVR 48 27 52 26 / 0 0 0 10
LWT 45 28 49 32 / 10 0 0 0
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR BEAVERHEAD
AND WESTERN MADISON BELOW 6000FT-BIG BELT, BRIDGER AND CASTLE
MOUNTAINS-CANYON FERRY AREA-CASCADE COUNTY BELOW 5000FT-EAST
GLACIER PARK REGION-EASTERN GLACIER, WESTERN TOOLE, AND CENTRAL
PONDERA-ELKHORN AND BOULDER MOUNTAINS-GALLATIN VALLEY-GATES OF
THE MOUNTAINS-HELENA VALLEY-JUDITH BASIN COUNTY AND JUDITH GAP-
LITTLE BELT AND HIGHWOOD MOUNTAINS-MADISON RIVER VALLEY-MEAGHER
COUNTY VALLEYS-MISSOURI HEADWATERS-NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS-SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS-SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT-UPPER BLACKFOOT AND
MACDONALD PASS.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM MST FRIDAY FOR
BEARS PAW MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN BLAINE-BIG BELT, BRIDGER AND
CASTLE MOUNTAINS-CASCADE COUNTY BELOW 5000FT-EAST GLACIER PARK
REGION-EASTERN GLACIER, WESTERN TOOLE, AND CENTRAL PONDERA-
EASTERN TOOLE AND LIBERTY-GATES OF THE MOUNTAINS-HELENA VALLEY-
JUDITH BASIN COUNTY AND JUDITH GAP-LITTLE BELT AND HIGHWOOD
MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN BLAINE COUNTY-NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS-SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS-SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT-UPPER BLACKFOOT AND
MACDONALD PASS-WESTERN AND CENTRAL CHOUTEAU COUNTY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR ELKHORN
AND BOULDER MOUNTAINS-SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT-UPPER
BLACKFOOT AND MACDONALD PASS.
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
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