507
FXUS65 KTFX 090204
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
804 PM MDT SUN MAR 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW WILL AFFECT THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND THE HI-LINE
TONIGHT.
- MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION ARE LIKELY OVER THE NEXT WEEK,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD STRONG WINDS IS LIKELY ON THURSDAY.
UPDATE
8 PM UPDATE...THE STRONG WIND EVENT FOR TODAY IS OVER. ALL HIGH
WIND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN CANCELLED. THE BLOWING DUST ADVISORY HAS
ALSO BEEN CANCELLED. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE
ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND THE HI-LINE INTO MONDAY MORNING.
AS OF 8 PM, THE COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE CITY OF GREAT
FALLS. CONTINUE TO EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES
IN 20 MINUTES AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE SNOWFALL ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE AND ALONG THE HI-LINE HAS BEEN HEAVY AT TIMES. WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOWER 20S, ROADWAYS ARE SNOW COVERED
AND SLIPPERY IN THIS AREA. EXPECT THIS BAND OF SNOW TO CONTINUE TO
EXPAND EASTWARD TOWARDS THE HAVRE AREA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THE
ADVISORY MIGHT NEED TO BE EXPANDED SOUTHWARD A BIT TO COVER MORE
OF NORTH CENTRAL MT, JUST DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH OF THE SNOWFALL
OVERSPREADS NORTH CENTRAL MT OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE, EXPECT A WINDY
DAY ON MONDAY ONCE AGAIN, BUT NOT AS STRONG AS TODAY. IT IS STILL
LOOKING LIKELY FOR ANOTHER WIDESPREAD HIGH WIND EVENT ON THURSDAY.
BRUSDA
445 PM UPDATE. THE BLOWING DUST ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED UNTIL 8 PM
FOR THE GREAT FALLS/FORT BENTON AREAS. THE HIGH WIND WARNING WAS
CANCELLED FOR A PORTION OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT/ADJACENT
PLAINS WHERE THE WINDS ARE DECREASING. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS
MOVING SOUTH THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL MT. AS OF 4 PM, IT WAS JUST
SOUTH OF A CUT BANK TO HAVRE LINE. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL 20
DEGREES IN 15 MINUTES AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. LIGHT RAIN/SNOW WILL
ALSO DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT. BRUSDA
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 555 PM MDT SUN MAR 8 2026/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
STRONG TO VERY STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 70 MPH GUSTS
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND UP TO 90 MPH ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT.
FURTHER NORTH, A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY SITTING IN SOUTHERN
ALBERTA AND IS EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN INTO MONTANA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE HIGH WINDS HEADING INTO
THE EVENING HOURS AND ALLOW FOR PRECIPITATION TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION.
PRECIPITATION WILL INITIALLY BE CONFINED TO THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE NORTH OF THE US HWY 12 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS DUE TO STRONG DOWNSLOPING IN LEE OF THE DIVIDE; HOWEVER, A
COLD FRONT DIVING SOUTH FROM ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN DURING THE
MID- TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS COMBINED WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE
OVERRUNNING THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL HELP TO SUPPORT A
SOUTHWARD ADVANCING BAND OF MODERATE, TO AT TIMES HEAVY, RAIN/SNOW
OVER THE ADJACENT PLAINS. THIS COLD FRONT WILL ALSO HELP TO END
THE STRONG TO VERY STRONG WESTERLY WINDS OVER THE PLAINS OF
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA; HOWEVER, PRIOR TO ITS ARRIVAL A
LONG DURATION OF HIGH SUSTAINED AND/OR GUSTS WILL IMPACT MOST
COMMUNITIES. STRONG, POTENTIALLY HIGH, WINDS LOOK TO RETURN TO
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MONTANA FROM THE LATE MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON HOURS ON MONDAY AS SURFACE WINDS VEER BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND BECOME UNIDIRECTIONAL WITH THE MID-LEVEL FLOW.
-MOLDAN/THOR
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
BLOWING DUST:
BLOWING DUST WILL REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT CONCERN FOR ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL MONTANA THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.
THE INITIAL BLOWING DUST ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF
CASCADE/CHOUTEAU, HILL, AND BLAINE WITH A RECENT EXPANSION INTO
LIBERTY AND EASTERN TOOLE COUNTIES AS CAMERAS HAVE SHOWN
SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY OVER THE PAST HOUR.
MULTIPLE OBSERVATIONS OF LESS THAN A MILE HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN
THE PAST COUPLE HOURS WITH A COUPLE REPORTS COMING IN OF
SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY ALONG US-87, US-2, AND I-15
SOUTH OF GREAT FALLS.
THE BLOWING DUST WILL CONTINUE AS LONG AS THE HIGH WINDS CONTINUE.
THE RELIEF FROM BLOWING DUST WILL COME AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH AND GRADUALLY TAPERS OFF THE WINDS AS WE HEAD INTO THE
EVENING.
IN THE MEANTIME, ANYONE WHO IS TRAVELING NEEDS TO BE PREPARED FOR
SUDDEN REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY ALONG AREA ROADS. IN PARTICULAR,
BE CAREFUL WHEN ENTERING CLEARING AREAS AS THEY MAY BE VERY SHORT
LIVED AND
SNOW TONIGHT THRU EARLY MONDAY:
THE LATEST HREF GUIDANCE HAS AROUND A 60% CHANCE FOR 2 INCHES AT
MARIAS PASS WITH A 30% CHANCE FOR 4 INCHES. ACROSS THE REST OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS, THE HREF IS NOT VERY CONFIDENT IN WHERE SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS GREATER THAN ONE INCH WILL SET UP. WHICH IS NOT TO SAY
THERE WILL NOT BE INSTANCES OF MORE THAN 2 INCHES ACROSS THE HI-
LINE. BUT THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD ADVISORY-LEVEL
CRITERIA SNOW. SO, FOR NOW, NO PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED. BUT THIS
WILL BE MONITORED IN CASE FUTURE UPDATES ARE NEEDED. -THOR
HIGH WINDS ON MONDAY:
LINGERING STRONG, ZONAL FLOW COMBINED WITH DIURNAL MIXING MAY HELP
TO SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUNDS OF STRONG WINDS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
FRONT AND ACROSS THE US HWY 200/US HWY 87 CORRIDOR FROM THE LATE
MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS. NBM PROBABILITIES FOR WIND GUSTS
EXCEEDING 60 MPH ACROSS THESE AREAS RANGE FROM A 45-90% CHANCE.
-MOLDAN
THURSDAY WINDS:
THE MODELS STILL REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE POTENTIAL
OF ANOTHER WIDESPREAD HIGH WIND EVENT WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. RELATIVELY
SPEAKING, NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS WHICH HAVE
A 700MB LEVEL JET OF 60-90KTS (70-100MPH) AND 500MB WINDS IN THE
90-110KT (100-130 MPH) RANGE.
RIGHT NOW THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE STRONGEST WINDS ARRIVING
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SHOULD THE STRONGER WINDS SHIFT TOWARDS A
LITTLE LATER IN THE MORNING, THE CONCERN FOR IMPACTS MAY INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT WOULD IMPACT THE THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTE. IT
IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT THE EXACTLY DETAILS OF HOW THIS EVENT
WILL PLAY OUT BUT THERE ARE EARLY SIGNS THAT THE EVENT ON THURSDAY
COULD EXCEED WHAT HAS BEEN OBSERVED TODAY. FOLKS SHOULD START TO
PREPARE AND ALTER TRAVEL PLANS NOW, IF POSSIBLE. -THOR
AVIATION
09/00Z TAF PERIOD
STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS KGTF/KLWT INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH NORTH
CHOUTEAU/TETON COUNTIES HAVE STARTED TO UNDERCUT THE WINDS ALONG
THE HI-LINE. THIS FRONT HAS ALSO BROUGHT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH THIS
EVENING AND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL CUT DOWN STRONG
WINDS AND CONTINUE TO BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS.
THE FRONT WILL ALSO USHER IN MVFR CLOUDS TO NORTH-CENTRAL
MT. IFR CLOUDS AND VIS ARE POSSIBLE WITH SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
INTO MONDAY, WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR VIS TO DROP BELOW A MILE
BRIEFLY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MT. AFTER PRECIPITATION EXITS MONDAY
MORNING, BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS MOVE BACK IN FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON.
-WILSON
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 29 42 22 38 / 60 20 0 20
CTB 18 35 13 34 / 100 20 10 10
HLN 32 43 20 37 / 30 40 10 40
BZN 32 47 19 37 / 20 40 20 40
WYS 28 44 15 31 / 10 20 20 60
DLN 34 47 20 35 / 0 10 0 10
HVR 21 40 17 39 / 80 30 10 10
LWT 26 39 18 35 / 60 40 20 40
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT MONDAY FOR EAST GLACIER
PARK REGION-SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MDT MONDAY FOR EASTERN
GLACIER, WESTERN TOOLE, AND CENTRAL PONDERA-EASTERN TOOLE AND
LIBERTY-HILL COUNTY-NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
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