275
FXUS65 KTFX 091733
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1133 AM MDT MON MAR 9 2026
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN FROM THE LATE MORNING
THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS TODAY.
- ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT WIND EVENT IS POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
- HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE FROM THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK TO THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY OVER
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 522 AM MDT MON MAR 9 2026/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
A VERY ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY PERSISTENT
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WITH EMBEDDED WAVES RIPPLING EASTWARD WILL BRING
DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION, SEESAWING TEMPERATURES, AND
NUMEROUS DAYS OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY HIGH WINDS.
OF PARTICULAR CONCERN WILL BE THE PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON WHEN A PLUME OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL STREAM EASTWARD AND OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
THIS PLUME OF PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL BRING HEAVY MOUNTAIN
PRECIPITATION, PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF SNOW, AND STRONG WINDS,
PARTICULARLY FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A COLD
FRONT MOVING SOUTH OVER THE PLAINS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
MONTANA THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING WILL STALL NEAR THE CENTRAL
MONTANA ISLAND RANGES. PACIFIC MOISTURE STREAMING OVER THIS STALLED
LOW TO MID-LEVEL FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION TO
END THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
FOR MOST OF THE PLAINS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA. FURTHER
TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE VALLEYS/MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
MONTANA PERIODS OF MOUNTAIN SNOW AND STRONG VALLEY WINDS WILL OCCUR
OVER THE SAME PERIOD, WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SOME 10 TO NEARLY 20
DEGREES WARMER THAN OVER THE PLAINS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
MONTANA. - MOLDAN
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
STRONG TO POTENTIAL HIGH WINDS TODAY (MONDAY)...
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG WESTERLY FLOW, WITH H700 WINDS OF BETWEEN 40-
50KTS, WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR STRONG AND GUSTY
WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA.
ECMWF EFIS OF BETWEEN 0.5-0.8 SUPPORT A CLIMATOLOGICALLY UNUSUAL
PERIOD OF WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, WITH BUFKIT
SOUNDING SUPPORTING THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR FROM THE
LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS (I.E. 16Z TO 02Z). NBM25PCT
WIND GUSTS VALUES, WHICH REPRESENT A REASONABLY LOW END WIND GUSTS
SCENARIO (75% CHANCE FOR HIGHER WIND GUSTS OR A 25% CHANCE FOR LOWER
WIND GUSTS), SUPPORT GUSTS OF BETWEEN 35-45 MPH ACROSS SOUTHWEST
THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA; WITH NBM75PCT WIND GUSTS VALUES,
WHICH REPRESENT A REASONABLY HIGH END WIND GUSTS SCENARIO (75%
CHANCE FOR LOWER WIND GUSTS OR A 25% CHANCE FOR HIGHER WIND GUSTS),
SUPPORT GUSTS OF BETWEEN 45-60 MPH. WHILE THE NBM75PCT VALUES
SUGGEST THAT A FEW LOCATIONS COULD REACH OR EXCEED HIGH WIND
CRITERIA CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THESE INSTANCES WOULD BE LIMITED
TO A FEW LOCATIONS PER COUNTY. FOR THIS REASON WE WILL HOLD OFF ON
ISSUING ANY HIGH WIND WARNINGS FOR THE DAY TODAY; HOWEVER, SHOULD
WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING CRITERIA BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THAN CURRENT
THINKING THEN A SHORT TERM HIGH WIND WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.
HIGH WINDS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...
ANOTHER WIDESPREAD AND LONG DURATION WIND EVENT CONTINUES TO BE OF
CONCERN OVER THE PERIOD, WITH H700 WINDS PER NAEFS ANALYSIS RANGING
FROM 3 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL AT BETWEEN 50-90KTS.
THESE WIND VALUES, PARTICULARLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MT HWY 200
CORRIDOR, ARE OUTSIDE OF THE CFSR CLIMATOLOGY BETWEEN 06Z-18Z
THURSDAY. ECMWF EFIS IN EXCESS OF 0.8 SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS
WIND EVENT TO BE VERY UNUSUAL TO EXTREME (I.E. SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO
DECEMBER 17, 2025 AND MARCH 8, 2026). RIGHT NOW ONE GOOD THING
WITHIN THE ECMWF EFIS IS THE FACT THAT THE SHIFT OF TAILS (SOTS),
WHICH WOULD INDICATE HOW EXTREME THE TOP 10% OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERSHIP
IS, ONLY HAS A VALUE OF 1. SHOULD THESE SHIFT OF TAILS CLIMB
FURTHER OVER THE SUCCEEDING DAYS THEN A TRULY EXTREME AND IMPACTFUL
WIND EVENT WOULD BE POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE RECENT STRAIN INFRASTRUCTURE
AND VEGETATION THIS EVENT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE PARTICULARLY
DAMAGING.
ACCUMULATING SNOW FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY, SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE NORTH OF THE MONTANA HWY 200 CORRIDOR CONTINUES TO BE OF
CONCERN AS A PLUME OF PACIFIC MOISTURE STREAMS EASTWARD OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. ECMWF EFIS IN EXCESS OF 0.95 EXIST NEARLY EVERY
DAY, WITH A SHIFT OF TAILS OF 3 CONTOURING THESE AREAS. NBM25PCT
(REASONABLY LOW END) VALUES WITH RESPECT TO SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE FROM 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY
RANGE FROM 1 TO NEARLY 3 FEET, WITH NBM75PCT (REASONABLY HIGH END)
VALUES RANGING FROM 3 TO 5 FEET. OVER THE PLAINS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA 25PCT VALUES RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES WHILE
THE 75PCT RANGES FROM 8 TO 12 INCHES. SNOW LEVELS AND WHERE THE COLD
FRONT STALLS WILL ULTIMATELY IMPACT LOWER ELEVATION SNOWFALL TO END
THE WORK WEEK. - MOLDAN
AVIATION
09/18Z TAF PERIOD
WESTERLY WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY BETWEEN
09/18Z AND 10/02Z, WITH MOUNTAIN WAVE TURBULENCE AND INSTANCES OF
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR REMAINING A CONCERN THROUGH AT LEAST 03-06Z
TUESDAY. PERIODS OF LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST MONTANA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION
REMAINING AN ON-AND-OFF CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. -THOR
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 43 19 39 22 / 30 10 20 0
CTB 36 13 33 20 / 40 10 20 0
HLN 46 19 37 20 / 40 10 30 0
BZN 46 19 36 14 / 50 10 30 10
WYS 44 18 30 3 / 30 10 40 20
DLN 48 18 35 14 / 10 0 10 0
HVR 41 16 39 18 / 40 10 10 10
LWT 39 17 35 17 / 50 10 30 20
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR EAST GLACIER
PARK REGION-FERGUS COUNTY BELOW 4500FT-JUDITH BASIN COUNTY AND
JUDITH GAP-LITTLE BELT AND HIGHWOOD MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS-SNOWY AND JUDITH MOUNTAINS-SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT.
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
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