881
FXUS65 KTFX 100010
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
610 PM MDT MON MAR 9 2026
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- TWO MAJOR WEATHER EVENTS WILL AFFECT THE CWA LATER THIS WEEK,
THE FIRST BEING STRONG WINDS WED INTO THU, WITH THE SECOND BEING
HEAVY SNOW ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT WED NIGHT THRU SAT.
- MILD TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS WEEK, TURN A BIT COOLER BY LATE IN
THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS RESULTING IN A FEW SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CWA. EXPECT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL RESIDE OVER THE CWA FOR TUE INTO WED,
BEFORE THE TROF BECOME MORE WESTERLY BY WED EVENING. THIS WILL
RESULT IN VERY STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING OVER NORTH CENTRAL MT WED
NIGHT INTO THU. OVERALL, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND
GUSTS OVER THE ENTIRE CWA BY THU, THUS THE ENTIRE CWA IS UNDER A
HIGH WIND WATCH BY THU. ADDITIONALLY, THIS WILL BE A VERY MOIST
WESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD HEAVY PRECIPITATION
FALLING ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. THE AIRMASS WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH, THAT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS SNOW.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE MEASURED IN FEET BETWEEN THU AND
SATURDAY. ADDITIONALLY, THE STRONG WINDS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
EVENT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.
FOR FRI INTO SATURDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL TROF REDEVELOPS IN THE WAKE
OF THE STRONG WINDS FROM THU. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A GOOD CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. AGAIN, WITH COLDER AIR
MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA, MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS
SNOW AT ALL ELEVATIONS. IT IS NOT UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT THAT THE
UPPER LEVEL TROF BEGINS TO EXIT THE CWA, SLOWLY ENDING THE
PRECIPITATION THEN.
SUN INTO MON...WARM AIR ADVECTION TRIES TO MOVE IN FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST SUN INTO MON. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER PERIOD
OF RAIN/SNOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA, BUT EXPECT WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO ALSO MOVE IN AS WELL BY MONDAY.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
THERE IS OVER AN 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF MUCH OF THE CWA SEEING WIND
GUSTS OVER 60 MPH ON THU, WITH MOUNTAIN AREAS SEEING OVER AN 80
PERCENT CHANCE OF WIND GUSTS OVER 75 MPH.
THERE IS OVER AN 80 PERCENT THAT THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT SEES
OVER 2 FEET OF SNOWFALL FROM THU THRU SAT. BRUSDA
AVIATION
10/00Z TAF PERIOD
A FEW PASSING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE
CWA THIS EVENING. EXPECT SHOWERS TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT, BUT THEN
REDEVELOP ON TUE MORNING, GENERALLY MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE CWA TUE AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN PASSING SHOWERS,
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. BRUSDA
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 19 38 21 45 / 10 20 0 20
CTB 12 34 18 40 / 10 20 0 20
HLN 22 38 20 47 / 10 30 0 30
BZN 19 37 14 47 / 10 30 10 0
WYS 17 32 5 35 / 20 40 20 10
DLN 20 36 16 45 / 0 20 0 10
HVR 17 40 19 46 / 10 10 10 10
LWT 19 36 16 42 / 10 30 20 20
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR BEAVERHEAD AND WESTERN MADISON BELOW 6000FT-BIG
BELT, BRIDGER AND CASTLE MOUNTAINS-CANYON FERRY AREA-CASCADE
COUNTY BELOW 5000FT-EAST GLACIER PARK REGION-EASTERN GLACIER,
WESTERN TOOLE, AND CENTRAL PONDERA-EASTERN PONDERA AND EASTERN
TETON-EASTERN TOOLE AND LIBERTY-ELKHORN AND BOULDER MOUNTAINS-
GALLATIN VALLEY-GALLATIN AND MADISON COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND
CENTENNIAL MOUNTAINS-GATES OF THE MOUNTAINS-HELENA VALLEY-JUDITH
BASIN COUNTY AND JUDITH GAP-LITTLE BELT AND HIGHWOOD MOUNTAINS-
MADISON RIVER VALLEY-MEAGHER COUNTY VALLEYS-MISSOURI HEADWATERS-
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS-NORTHWEST BEAVERHEAD COUNTY-RUBY MOUNTAINS
AND SOUTHERN BEAVERHEAD MOUNTAINS-SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS-SOUTHERN
ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT-UPPER BLACKFOOT AND MACDONALD PASS-WESTERN
AND CENTRAL CHOUTEAU COUNTY.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR EAST GLACIER PARK REGION-SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN
FRONT.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR BEARS PAW MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN BLAINE-FERGUS
COUNTY BELOW 4500FT-HILL COUNTY-NORTHERN BLAINE COUNTY-SNOWY AND
JUDITH MOUNTAINS.
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
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