732
FXUS65 KTFX 110209
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
809 PM MDT TUE MAR 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
- WIDESPREAD STRONG WINDS SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY, WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY.
- PERIODS OF HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL IMPACT THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH COLD TEMPERATURES AND LOCALLY
HEAVY LOWER ELEVATION SNOW OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTGRAL MT
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
- MILDER AND WINDY CONDITIONS LOOK TO RETURN NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
NO UPDATES PLANNED FOR THE EVENING FORECAST...OVERALL EVERYTHING
IS ON TRACK. SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING, AS THEY CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA.
OTHERWISE, ALL ATTENTION WILL START TO TURN TOWARDS THE STRONG
WINDS THAT WILL DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY EVENING ALONG THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN FRONT AND THEN SPREAD EASTWARD, OVER THE PLAINS AND
ACROSS SOUTHWEST MT BY THURSDAY MORNING. OVERALL, THIS COULD BE A
VERY STRONG HIGH WIND EVENT. THE ENTIRE CWA IS UNDER A HIGH WIND
WARNING...THUS NO CHANGES.
IN TERMS OF SNOWFALL, HEAVY SNOW IS STILL EXPECTED ALONG THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN FRONT, BEGINNING ON WED AND THEN GOING INTO SAT.
INITIALLY, NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WED NIGHT INTO
THU, AND IT IS STILL POSSIBLE THAT THE WINTER STORM WARNING MIGHT
BE CHANGED TO A BLIZZARD WARNING. EXPECT COLDER AIR TO START TO
MOVE SOUTHWARD ON THU AFTERNOON INTO NORTH CENTRAL MT. THIS WILL
END THE STRONG WINDS, BUT ALLOW FOR SNOW TO DEVELOP OVER NORTH
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MT. PERIODS OF SNOW WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO
SAT. A WINTER STORM WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF CENTRAL MT,
WITH ADDITIONAL WINTER STATEMENTS LIKELY ISSUED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. BRUSDA
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 600 PM MDT TUE MAR 10 2026/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
COLD WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS
AFTERNOON WITH H500 TEMPERATURES DOWN TO THE -35 TO -40C RANGE.
THIS COMBINED WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S WILL
MAINTAIN AREAWIDE WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW/GRAUPEL SHOWERS THROUGH
THIS EVENING. AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT WILL BRING MORE SCATTERED
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY WHILE THE WESTERLY FLOW
INCREASES MARKEDLY AND USHERS PERIODS OF WIDESPREAD STRONG TO
DAMAGING WINDS THAT WILL PEAK IN STRENGTH LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. DURING THIS TIMEFRAME THERE LOOKS TO BE A WIDE
SWATH OF H700 FLOW IN THE 70 TO 100 KT RANGE. BOTH DETERMINISTIC
AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE DO MIX AT LEAST SOME OF THIS TO THE SURFACE
EVEN THOUGH THE TIMING OF THE STRONGEST FLOW IS NOT QUITE IN PHASE
WITH PEAK DIURNAL MIXING. SCATTERED CONVECTIVE SHOWER ACTIVITY,
ASSOCIATED WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY, WILL ALSO WORK TO MIX
STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE.
THIS SET UP ALSO BRINGS ANOMALOUSLY PACIFIC MOISTURE DEEP INTO
THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST. SNOW WILL CONTINUE INCREASING ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES FOR THE
IMMEDIATE EASTERN SLOPES. THE COMBINATION OF THE SNOW AND WINDS
WILL BRING PERIODS OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. THEN A CANADIAN COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ON THURSDAY AND WILL DECREASE THE WINDS
FOR NORTHERN AREAS, BUT WILL INTRODUCE COLDER TEMPERATURES AND
SNOW TO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL MT THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL LARGELY BE DETERMINED BY
WHERE THE FRONTOGENESIS SETS UP. THERE'S CURRENTLY SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAST THIS WILL MOVE SOUTH AND WHETHER OR NOT IT
WILL STALL ALONG THE WAY.
THE BOUNDARY DOES LOOKS TO MOVE SOUTHWARD AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS TO SOUTHWEST MT
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS AREN'T VERY ENTHUSIASTIC AS FAR AS
WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW, BUT LOCALIZED SNOW IMPACTS ARE
DEFINITELY ON THE TABLE, ESPECIALLY OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAIN
PASSES. SNOW BEGINS TO DIMINISH ON SUNDAY, BUT TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FOR AT LEAST ONE MORE DAY. MOST ENSEMBLES
FAVOR RIDGING ALOFT TO MOVE IN NEXT WEEK FOR MILDER, BUT CONTINUED
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS. DESPITE THIS, THERE MAY BE ONE MORE
WAVE THAT SNEAKS IN AND BRINGS SOME LIGHT, MOSTLY MOUNTAIN SNOW ON
MONDAY. - RCG
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
WIDESPREAD STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...
THE COMBINATION OF ANOMALOUSLY STRONG WINDS ALOFT WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTIVE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LOOK TO TRANSFER STRONG WIND GUSTS
GENERALLY RANGING FROM 60 TO 90 MPH OVER LARGE PORTIONS OF NORTH-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA FOR A 2 TO 6 HOUR PERIOD, LONGEST
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. WINDS
OF THIS MAGNITUDE FOR SUCH A LONG TIME SPAN WOULD EXERT A MUCH
LARGER IMPACT THAN INSTANTANEOUS HIGH WIND GUSTS OF A TYPICAL HIGH
WIND EVENT. THE ONE CONFOUNDING FACTOR THAT COULD PRECLUDE THE
HIGHER END WIND GUSTS FROM REACHING THE SURFACE IN SUCH A
WIDESPREAD FASHION IS THE PEAK UPPER LEVEL WINDS OCCURRING DURING
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS, GENERALLY BETWEEN 3 AM AND
NOON. THERE'S IS AN EXPECTATION FOR CONVECTIVE SHOWERS TO MAKE UP
FOR THIS SHORTCOMING; HOWEVER, SHOULD THE SHOWERS NOT BE AS
WIDESPREAD OR EFFECTIVE, THEN THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FAR MORE
LOCALIZED AND MUCH SHORTER IN DURATION. SOME IMPACTS MAY INCLUDE
TREE/POWER LINE DAMAGE, AREAS OF BLOWING DUST OR SNOW, AND
DIFFICULT TO DANGEROUS TRAVEL FOR HIGH PROFILE OR LIGHT WEIGHT
VEHICLES. ALL THE HIGH WIND WATCHES WERE UPGRADED TO HIGH WIND
WARNINGS WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.
PERIODS OF HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOW ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
SPREADING TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL
MONTANA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOW HAS ALREADY COMMENCED OVER THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THIS WILL ONLY INCREASE
AS THE STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT USHERS IN RICH PACIFIC MOISTURE
DEEP INTO THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST. AREAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE DIVIDE WILL SEE SNOW TOTALS RANGING FROM 1
TO 4 FEET THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG
GUSTY WINDS WILL PRODUCE NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES,
ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT ZONES AND NW BEAVERHEAD COUNTY FOR
THE NEAR TERM, WITH THE WINTER STORM WATCH BEING UPGRADED TO A
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT ZONES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR AN
UPGRADE TO A BLIZZARD WARNING SHOULD CONFIDENCE INCREASE WITH THE
STRONGER WINDS BEING ALIGNED WITH THE HEAVY SNOW.
BY THURSDAY NIGHT COLDER AIR MOVES ONTO THE PLAINS, ALONG WITH AN
AREA OF H500/H700 FRONTOGENESIS. THIS WILL BRING PERIODS OF SNOW
OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL MT THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
CURRENTLY THE HEAVIEST SNOW LOOKS TO FALL OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
ADJACENT TO THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND THEN ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE CENTRAL ISLAND RANGES WHERE SNOW TOTALS LOOK TO GENERALLY FALL
IN THE 10 TO 20 INCH RANGE. LIGHTER AMOUNTS IN THE 3 TO 8 INCHES
SEEM PLAUSIBLE FOR OTHER CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL LOCATIONS.
ULTIMATELY THIS WILL DEPEND ON PRECISELY WHERE THIS TRANSIENT AREA
OF FRONTOGENESIS SETS UP. SOUTHWESTERN AREAS DON'T LOOK OVERLY
OPTIMISTIC FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ASIDE FROM LOCALLY INTENSE SNOW
SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. WINTER STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN SENT OUT FOR
MOST CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL LOCATIONS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. - RCG
AVIATION
11/00Z TAF PERIOD
WINDS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL WIND DOWN EARLY THIS
EVENING. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A "HIT OR MISS" AT
TERMINAL THROUGH 11/01 - 11/03Z. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR WEDNESDAY IS
DIURNAL DRIVEN BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS PICKING UP AGAIN ACROSS THE
REGION MID TO LATE MORNING, AND CONTINUING THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. -WILSON
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 20 44 37 49 / 20 10 50 70
CTB 16 39 25 40 / 10 10 70 70
HLN 20 46 38 50 / 20 20 50 80
BZN 14 46 35 55 / 20 10 20 60
WYS 5 34 24 45 / 30 10 50 70
DLN 15 44 35 52 / 10 10 30 40
HVR 18 45 28 43 / 10 10 70 80
LWT 16 41 30 46 / 30 20 40 80
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR EAST
GLACIER PARK REGION-SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM MDT SATURDAY
FOR EAST GLACIER PARK REGION-SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR BEARS PAW MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN BLAINE-CASCADE
COUNTY BELOW 5000FT-EASTERN GLACIER, WESTERN TOOLE, AND CENTRAL
PONDERA-EASTERN PONDERA AND EASTERN TETON-EASTERN TOOLE AND
LIBERTY-FERGUS COUNTY BELOW 4500FT-JUDITH BASIN COUNTY AND
JUDITH GAP-LITTLE BELT AND HIGHWOOD MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS-SNOWY AND JUDITH MOUNTAINS-SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS-WESTERN
AND CENTRAL CHOUTEAU COUNTY.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO 6 PM MDT
THURSDAY FOR BEAVERHEAD AND WESTERN MADISON BELOW 6000FT-BIG
BELT, BRIDGER AND CASTLE MOUNTAINS-CANYON FERRY AREA-CASCADE
COUNTY BELOW 5000FT-EASTERN PONDERA AND EASTERN TETON-EASTERN
TOOLE AND LIBERTY-ELKHORN AND BOULDER MOUNTAINS-GALLATIN VALLEY-
GALLATIN AND MADISON COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND CENTENNIAL MOUNTAINS-
GATES OF THE MOUNTAINS-HELENA VALLEY-JUDITH BASIN COUNTY AND
JUDITH GAP-LITTLE BELT AND HIGHWOOD MOUNTAINS-MADISON RIVER
VALLEY-MEAGHER COUNTY VALLEYS-MISSOURI HEADWATERS-NORTHWEST
BEAVERHEAD COUNTY-RUBY MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN BEAVERHEAD
MOUNTAINS-UPPER BLACKFOOT AND MACDONALD PASS-WESTERN AND CENTRAL
CHOUTEAU COUNTY.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO 3 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR
EAST GLACIER PARK REGION-EASTERN GLACIER, WESTERN TOOLE, AND
CENTRAL PONDERA-NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS-SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS-
SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR BEARS PAW
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN BLAINE-FERGUS COUNTY BELOW 4500FT-HILL
COUNTY-NORTHERN BLAINE COUNTY-SNOWY AND JUDITH MOUNTAINS.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO NOON MDT FRIDAY
FOR NORTHWEST BEAVERHEAD COUNTY.
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
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