896
FXUS65 KTFX 111717
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1117 AM MDT WED MAR 11 2026
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD, LONG DURATION STRONG WINDS PICK UP LATE WEDNESDAY
EVENING INTO THURSDAY.
- HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL WILL IMPACT THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
DURING WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY LOWER
ELEVATION SNOWFALL POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IN NORTH-CENTRAL
MT.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS FOR SOUTHWEST MT SATURDAY.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES, A FEW ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION, AND WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP FOR NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 520 AM MDT WED MAR 11 2026/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL KEEP BRINGING IN
MOISTURE AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT TO KEEP SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING IN WILL BRING BETTER FORCING FOR HEAVY SNOW TO BEGIN OVER
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING IN A STRONG MID LEVEL JET UP TO 80-100KTS
STATEWIDE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS WELL. STRONG WINDS LOOK
TO DEVELOP REGION-WIDE THROUGH THURSDAY DESPITE TIMING OF THE
PEAK MID LEVEL JET BEING OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. PERHAPS
THIS IS DUE TO PRECIPITATION HELPING MIX DOWN THESE WINDS, THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING DURING THE NIGHT, AND MOUNTAIN WAVE
ACTIVITY. THE COMBINATION OF THE STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY SNOWFALL
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL BRING NEAR WHITEOUT CONDTIONS
AT TIMES, PARTICULARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
A WARM FRONT THURSDAY MORNING WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT SNOW TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE HI-LINE BEFORE THE MAIN SNOW SYSTEM COMES IN. A
CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO THE HI- LINE AND NORTH-
CENTRAL MT. THIS WILL HELP UNDERCUT THE STRONG WINDS AND BRING
WIDESPREAD SNOW TO NORTH-CENTRAL MT. THE FRONT IS FORECASTED TO
STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MT THURSDAY. WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT BRINGING IN REMNANT MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC ATMOSPHERIC
RIVER WILL OVER RUN THE STALLED FRONT, AND BRING PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AT LOWER ELEVATIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
THE BEST CORRIDOR FOR HEAVIER SNOWFALL WILL BE WHERE THE FRONT
STALLS OUT. PERIODS OF SNOW CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY/OVERNIGHT
INTO SUNDAY BEFORE EXITING.
SOUTHWEST MT BEING SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL NOT BE IMPACTED AS MUCH
BY THE SNOW. THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW TO MORE MODERATE
SNOW AT THE MOUNTAIN PEAKS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE
MAIN CONCERN FOR SOUTHWEST MT DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE
PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS.
NEXT WEEK, AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
MONTANA WILL BE ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THIS RIDGE. THIS WILL
CONTINUE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK,
BEFORE THE RIDGE FLATTENS OUT MID NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A
FEW WAVES OF RAIN/SNOW AS WELL AS WINDY CONDITIONS AND MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
WINDS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY:
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT IN THE STRENGTH OF THE
700MB WINDS. ALTHOUGH THE TIMING OF THESE PEAK WINDS IS DURING
THE NIGHTTIME AND PRE-DAWN HOURS AND THEREFORE NOT UTILIZING PEAK
DAY TIME VERTICAL MIXING, DETERMINISTIC AND HI-RES ENSEMBLES
STILL HAVE THESE STRONGER WINDS MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. MOUNTAIN
WAVE ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT, AND WILL LIKELY BE THE
MAIN DRIVER FOR THE STRONGEST WINDS THAT DEVELOP. SNOW AND A
BUILDING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALSO HELP MIX DOWN STRONG WINDS
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS WELL, BUT THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE
IN THESE PEAK WINDS BEING LIMITED BY HAPPENING DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS 700MB JET WILL BE PERSISTENT FOR A LONG
PERIOD OF TIME, WHICH WINDS CAN BECOME LONGER DURATION. THE MAIN
WINDOW OF CONCERN WILL BE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH ABOUT
NOON TIME. TRAVEL WILL BE DIFFICULT TO DANGEROUS FOR HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES, AND IF A LONGER DURATION OF WINDS DO SET UP, THEN
TREE/POWER LINE DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN. STRONG WINDS ALSO
BRING AN INCREASE RISK OF WILDFIRE SPREAD IF ONE DOES DEVELOP.
HIGHER END VALUES EXCEED 90 MPH OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS
AND 80 MPH ACROSS THE NORTH- CENTRAL MT PLAINS.
SNOWFALL WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY:
MODERATE SNOW WILL BUILD BACK IN ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WILL TRANSITION TO HEAVY SNOW WEDNESDAY
EVENING. FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY, IT IS CURRENTLY
FORECASTED FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO REACH 1-4 FEET OF SNOW.
HEAVY CONVECTIVE SNOW COMBINED WITH GUSTY WINDS THURSDAY MORNING
WILL BRING WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES SHOULD THE WINDS MIX DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. THE HEAVY SNOW WILL MAKE TRAVEL OVER MARIAS PASS
EXTREMELY DIFFICULT. THE HEAVY SNOW WILL ALSO WEIGH DOWN ON
POWER LINES AND TREES, WHICH CAN CAUSE THEM TO FALL DOWN.
THE COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THURSDAY WILL USHER IN COLDER AIR
INTO NORTH-CENTRAL MT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE REMAINS A LITTLE
VARIABILITY IN WHERE THIS FRONT STALLS OUT, BUT GENERAL CONSENSUS
AT THE TIME IS SOMEWHERE AROUND THE CENTRAL ISLAND RANGES THROUGH
THE MT HIGHWAY 200 CORRIDOR THROUGH ROGER'S PASS. GENERALLY, SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 6-10" LOOK PLAUSIBLE FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS IN
NORTH-CENTRAL MT AND EXCEEDING A FOOT IN THE CENTRAL MT MOUNTAINS
AND AREAS THAT THE FRONT STALLS OUT IN. SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE
BETTER AT NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS WHERE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
DROP INTO THE 20S/TEENS. MARGINAL TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON
MAY SLIGHTLY LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS IN AREAS THAT DON'T DEVELOP A
HEAVIER SNOW BAND. THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER WATCHES REMAIN ON
TRACK. -WILSON
AVIATION
11/18Z TAF PERIOD
INITIAL CONCERN THIS TAF PERIOD WILL BE FOR BREEZY WINDS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE SUBSIDING
BRIEFLY. WINDS ALOFT WILL ALREADY BE INCREASING THIS EVENING AS
SURFACE WINDS SUBSIDE, WHICH WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST ISOLATED
INSTANCES OF LLWS. CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING WAS TOO LOW TO
PLACE IN ANY TAF AT THIS TIME HOWEVER.
LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT SURFACE WINDS INCREASE AGAIN,
BECOMING STRONG OVER THE PLAINS AND ADJACENT AREAS BETWEEN 6Z AND
12Z. THESE STRONGER WINDS SPREAD SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MORNING,
REMAINING GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY. LOW-LEVEL TURBULENCE WILL BE COMMON
AS EARLY AS 6Z OVER THE PLAINS, SPREADING TO ALL AREAS BY LATE
MORNING THURSDAY.
ALL THE WHILE, PRECIPITATION ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL
OBSCURE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, OCCASIONALLY MAKING
INROADS FURTHER EAST OF THE DIVIDE. -AM
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 44 37 49 29 / 10 40 70 90
CTB 39 27 41 20 / 10 50 60 60
HLN 46 38 51 33 / 20 50 90 100
BZN 46 35 56 34 / 10 20 50 70
WYS 34 27 46 33 / 20 60 60 60
DLN 44 35 52 38 / 10 30 40 40
HVR 45 29 46 20 / 10 70 80 70
LWT 41 31 47 24 / 10 40 90 100
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR EAST
GLACIER PARK REGION-SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM MDT SATURDAY
FOR EAST GLACIER PARK REGION-SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR BEARS PAW MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN BLAINE-CASCADE
COUNTY BELOW 5000FT-EASTERN GLACIER, WESTERN TOOLE, AND CENTRAL
PONDERA-EASTERN PONDERA AND EASTERN TETON-EASTERN TOOLE AND
LIBERTY-FERGUS COUNTY BELOW 4500FT-JUDITH BASIN COUNTY AND
JUDITH GAP-LITTLE BELT AND HIGHWOOD MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS-SNOWY AND JUDITH MOUNTAINS-SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS-WESTERN
AND CENTRAL CHOUTEAU COUNTY.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR
BEAVERHEAD AND WESTERN MADISON BELOW 6000FT-BIG BELT, BRIDGER
AND CASTLE MOUNTAINS-CANYON FERRY AREA-CASCADE COUNTY BELOW
5000FT-EASTERN PONDERA AND EASTERN TETON-EASTERN TOOLE AND
LIBERTY-ELKHORN AND BOULDER MOUNTAINS-GALLATIN VALLEY-GALLATIN
AND MADISON COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND CENTENNIAL MOUNTAINS-GATES OF
THE MOUNTAINS-HELENA VALLEY-JUDITH BASIN COUNTY AND JUDITH GAP-
LITTLE BELT AND HIGHWOOD MOUNTAINS-MADISON RIVER VALLEY-MEAGHER
COUNTY VALLEYS-MISSOURI HEADWATERS-NORTHWEST BEAVERHEAD COUNTY-
RUBY MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN BEAVERHEAD MOUNTAINS-UPPER BLACKFOOT
AND MACDONALD PASS-WESTERN AND CENTRAL CHOUTEAU COUNTY.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM MDT THURSDAY
FOR EAST GLACIER PARK REGION-EASTERN GLACIER, WESTERN TOOLE, AND
CENTRAL PONDERA-NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS-SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS-
SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR BEARS PAW
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN BLAINE-FERGUS COUNTY BELOW 4500FT-HILL
COUNTY-NORTHERN BLAINE COUNTY-SNOWY AND JUDITH MOUNTAINS.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON MDT
FRIDAY FOR NORTHWEST BEAVERHEAD COUNTY.
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