661
FXUS65 KTFX 112040
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
240 PM MDT WED MAR 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A LONG DURATION STRONG WIND EVENT IMPACTS AREAS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
FRONT BEGINNING TONIGHT AND EXPANDS TO ALL OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST MONTANA THURSDAY MORNING.
- SNOW INTENSIFIES ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TONIGHT WITH MODERATE
TO HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS CREATING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR
A PERIOD FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FROM ROGERS
PASS NORTH TO MARIAS PASS.
- WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS INCREASE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL MONTANA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS AREAS OF SNOW
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD.
DISCUSSION
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
A STRONG WESTERLY MID-UPPER LEVEL JET IS APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NW
COAST THIS AFTERNOON, SANDWICHED BETWEEN A USUALLY DEEP TROUGH IN
THE GULF OF AK AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED OFF THE COAST
OF CA. A FAIRLY ROBUST PLUME OF ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS ALSO
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE STRONG FLOW, WHICH WILL PRODUCE MULTIPLE WIND
AND WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS AS THIS ZONE OF STRONG WINDS AND MOISTURE
STREAM ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND MT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.
EXPECT THE ONSET OF STRONG WINDS ALONG THE ROCKY MTN FRONT BY
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE EXPANDING EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING AS THE INITIAL WAVE EJECTING OUT FROM THE
PACIFIC TRACKS EAST ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN AB/SK WITH A WSW-ENE PACIFIC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL MT BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, OROGRAPHICALLY FORCED SNOW ALREADY ALONG
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT
THE ARRIVAL OF THE PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM AND DEEPER MOISTURE
PLUME. THIS IN TANDEM WITH THE INCREASING WINDS WILL SUPPORT AN
INCREASING COVERAGE OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ALONG THE DIVIDE AS
FAR SOUTH AS MACDONALD PASS BY LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE
PINTLER/BEAVERHEAD RANGES BY THURSDAY MORNING. SHOWERS TRACKING
EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH THE INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE
ON SATURDAY WILL BE LESS NUMEROUS BUT ENOUGH ENOUGH ATMOSPHERIC
INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT FOR SOME BRIEF/BUT INTENSE SHOWERS
WHICH MAY BEGIN AS RAIN WITH A TRANSITION TO GRAUPEL OR SNOW
SHOWERS.
WINDS DECREASE LATE THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE MID-UPPER
LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND A SECONDARY CANADIAN
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MT, SHIFTING WINDS
TO THE NORTH AND BRINGING A COOLER AIRMASS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS. THIS E-W FRONTAL ZONE STALLS ACROSS CENTRAL MT FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AND SERVES AS A FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION AS THE
PACIFIC MOISTURE PLUME CONTINUES TO STREAM OVERHEAD. SNOW WITHIN
THIS FRONTAL ZONE BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD WITH GREATER INTENSITY
LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
THE COOLER AIRMASS AND AREAS OF SNOW MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY BEFORE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AMPLIFIES OFF THE WEST COAST AND SHIFTS INLAND
NEXT WEEK, BRINGING MUCH WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. HOENISCH
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
STRONG WIND HAZARDS:
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN A WIDESPREAD AND LONG DURATION WIND EVENT
TO IMPACT ALL OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MT AS AN UNUSUALLY
STRONG (80-90KT @700MB) WIND MAXIMUM STREAKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND MT LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. TIMING OF THE
STRONGEST WINDS STILL LOOKS TO BE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING FOR AREAS IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT TO THE ROCKY MTN FRONT AND
DURING THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS MOST OF NORTH-CETRAL AND SOUTHWEST
MT WITH STRONG WINDS LINGERING INTO EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MT. PROBABILITIES
FOR GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 55 MPH ARE 80-100% FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA WITH A RISK FOR GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 75 MPH ACROSS SOME AREAS NOT
TYPICALLY ASSOCIATED WITH WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE, INCLUDING A 60-
75% PROBABILITY FROM CASCADE AND JUDITH BASIN COUNTIES SOUTH THROUGH
MEAGHER AND NORTHERN GALLATIN COUNTIES, WHERE TIMING OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND POTENTIAL FOR EARLY AFTERNOON MIXING WILL BE
MOST FAVORABLE TO TRANSPORT HIGHER WINDS TO THE SURFACE. WE
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE LONGER DURATION OF STRONG WINDS (6+ HRS
OF >55MPH GUSTS) AS A FACTOR THAT CAN INCREASE THE RISK FOR WIND
DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES AS HAS BEEN SEEN IN OTHER RECENT WIND
EVENTS.
WINTER WEATHER HAZARDS:
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT NEAR THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE FROM GLACIER NP TO AS FAR SOUTH AS ROGERS PASS AS
THE HIGHER INTENSITY SNOWFALL RATES AND STRONGER WINDS DEVELOP.
FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE DIVIDE, SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DECREASE, BUT
PERIODS OF MORE INTENSE SNOW AND WINDS COULD CREATE LOCALIZED
PERIODS OF BLOWING SNOW WITH VISIBILITY 1/2 MILE OR LESS FROM
MACDONALD PASS SOUTH THROUGH NW BEAVERHEAD COUNTY.
AREAS ADJACENT TO THE EAST GLACIER REGION AND ROCKY MTN FRONT MAY
SEE SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AS SNOW SHOWERS MOVE OFF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY MORNING. THE
COMBINATION OF VERY STRONG WINDS (GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 70MPH), SOME
FRESH SNOWFALL AND DOWNSTREAM WIND TRANSPORT OF SNOW FROM AREAS TO
THE WEST, COULD ALSO PRODUCE REDUCED VISIBILITY IN BLOWING SNOW,
THOUGH NOT TO THE EXTENT AS AREAS FURTHER WEST.
A WINTER STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
MT FOR THE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON PERIOD.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN A MULTI-DAY PERIOD OF SNOWFALL AFFECTING THESE
AREAS WITH THE FOCUS FOR MORE IMPACTFUL SNOW AMOUNTS SHIFTED SOME
TOWARDS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. HOENISCH
AVIATION
11/18Z TAF PERIOD
INITIAL CONCERN THIS TAF PERIOD WILL BE FOR BREEZY WINDS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE SUBSIDING
BRIEFLY. WINDS ALOFT WILL ALREADY BE INCREASING THIS EVENING AS
SURFACE WINDS SUBSIDE, WHICH WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST ISOLATED
INSTANCES OF LLWS. CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING WAS TOO LOW TO
PLACE IN ANY TAF AT THIS TIME HOWEVER.
LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT SURFACE WINDS INCREASE AGAIN,
BECOMING STRONG OVER THE PLAINS AND ADJACENT AREAS BETWEEN 6Z AND
12Z. THESE STRONGER WINDS SPREAD SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MORNING,
REMAINING GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY. LOW-LEVEL TURBULENCE WILL BE COMMON
AS EARLY AS 6Z OVER THE PLAINS, SPREADING TO ALL AREAS BY LATE
MORNING THURSDAY.
ALL THE WHILE, PRECIPITATION ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL
OBSCURE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, OCCASIONALLY MAKING
INROADS FURTHER EAST OF THE DIVIDE. -AM
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 38 48 28 35 / 20 40 70 80
CTB 28 41 20 31 / 50 40 50 50
HLN 37 49 32 44 / 40 60 90 90
BZN 35 54 33 49 / 10 30 70 80
WYS 26 45 31 44 / 50 50 60 80
DLN 34 53 36 54 / 20 30 50 50
HVR 31 45 20 34 / 50 50 60 30
LWT 31 47 23 31 / 20 60 90 80
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR EAST
GLACIER PARK REGION-SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS-SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR
EAST GLACIER PARK REGION-SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THURSDAY TO 6 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR
EAST GLACIER PARK REGION-SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR BEARS PAW MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN BLAINE-CASCADE
COUNTY BELOW 5000FT-EASTERN GLACIER, WESTERN TOOLE, AND CENTRAL
PONDERA-EASTERN PONDERA AND EASTERN TETON-EASTERN TOOLE AND
LIBERTY-FERGUS COUNTY BELOW 4500FT-JUDITH BASIN COUNTY AND
JUDITH GAP-LITTLE BELT AND HIGHWOOD MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS-SNOWY AND JUDITH MOUNTAINS-SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS-WESTERN
AND CENTRAL CHOUTEAU COUNTY.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR
BEAVERHEAD AND WESTERN MADISON BELOW 6000FT-BIG BELT, BRIDGER
AND CASTLE MOUNTAINS-CANYON FERRY AREA-CASCADE COUNTY BELOW
5000FT-EASTERN PONDERA AND EASTERN TETON-EASTERN TOOLE AND
LIBERTY-ELKHORN AND BOULDER MOUNTAINS-GALLATIN VALLEY-GALLATIN
AND MADISON COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND CENTENNIAL MOUNTAINS-GATES OF
THE MOUNTAINS-HELENA VALLEY-JUDITH BASIN COUNTY AND JUDITH GAP-
LITTLE BELT AND HIGHWOOD MOUNTAINS-MADISON RIVER VALLEY-MEAGHER
COUNTY VALLEYS-MISSOURI HEADWATERS-NORTHWEST BEAVERHEAD COUNTY-
RUBY MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN BEAVERHEAD MOUNTAINS-UPPER BLACKFOOT
AND MACDONALD PASS-WESTERN AND CENTRAL CHOUTEAU COUNTY.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON MDT FRIDAY
FOR NORTHWEST BEAVERHEAD COUNTY-UPPER BLACKFOOT AND MACDONALD
PASS.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM MDT THURSDAY
FOR EAST GLACIER PARK REGION-EASTERN GLACIER, WESTERN TOOLE, AND
CENTRAL PONDERA-NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS-SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS-
SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR BEARS PAW
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN BLAINE-FERGUS COUNTY BELOW 4500FT-HILL
COUNTY-NORTHERN BLAINE COUNTY-SNOWY AND JUDITH MOUNTAINS.
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