678
FXUS65 KTFX 120746
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
146 AM MDT THU MAR 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A LONG DURATION AND SIGNIFICANT WIND EVENT WILL IMPACT THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS TODAY.
- BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
FRONT THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON TODAY, WITH WINDS GRADUALLY
DECREASING THEREAFTER; HOWEVER, SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
- WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS INCREASE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL MONTANA TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS AREAS OF SNOW
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD.
DISCUSSION
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
A PLUME OF PACIFIC MOISTURE WITHIN STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
STREAM EASTWARD AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH SATURDAY,
WITH THE INITIAL PLUME THROUGH THURSDAY BEING ORIENTATED ALONG THE
ENTIRETY OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE FROM THE IDAHO BORDER TO THE
CANADIAN BORDER BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTH TO MAINLY AFFECT THE SOUTHERN
2/3RD OF THE DIVIDE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THIS PLUME OF
MOISTURE WILL HELP TO SUPPORT A MULTI-DAY SNOWFALL EVENT ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, WITH
MOST MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS MEASURING STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL IN THE FEET.
AT THE SURFACE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EMERGE ACROSS SOUTHERN
ALBERTA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY AND QUICKLY MOVE
EAST OVER WESTERN NODAK BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AS THIS SURFACE LOW
MOVES EAST A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO DIVE SOUTH AND EAST OVER THE
PLAINS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MONTANA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS ON THURSDAY. THIS FRONT AND WHERE IT ULTIMATELY STALLS
ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA WILL NOT ONLY BE THE FOCUS FOR LOWER
ELEVATION SNOWFALL DURING THE DAYS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, BUT WILL
ALSO SERVE THE PURPOSE OF SHUTTING DOWN THE STRONG WESTERLY WINDS ON
THURSDAY. STRONG TO VERY STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE EXPERIENCED
ACROSS THE ENTIRETY OF SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA FROM
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING, WITH
WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. ADDITIONAL
OPPORTUNITIES FOR STRONG WINDS WILL ARRIVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST MONTANA,
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE I-19 CORRIDOR, ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
CONTINUED STRONG WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT MOVE OVER THE AREA. - MOLDAN
AS THE UPPER-LEVEL WAVE EXITS THE REGION, A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
WESTERN U.S. NEXT WEEK. BEING ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE
WILL BRING A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PATTERN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK BEFORE THE RIDGE FLATTENS OUT MID WEEK. OVERALL, THE FORECAST
PERIOD WILL BE DRIER, BUT A FEW DISTURBANCES ROUNDING OUT THE RIDGE
WILL BRING A FEW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH MID WEEK. STRONG
700MB FLOW LOOKS TO KEEP WINDY CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE
COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS WILL BRING WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES BY MIDWEEK. -WILSON
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
HIGH WIND HAZARDS FOR THURSDAY :
CONFIDENCE IN A WIDESPREAD, LONG DURATION, AND SIGNIFICANT WIND
EVENT REMAINS HIGH ACROSS ALL OF NORTH CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND
SOUTHWEST MONTANA. LATEST DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS
SLOWED DOWN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A SOUTHWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT,
WHICH WOULD HELP TO SHUT-OFF THE STRONGEST WINDS, UNTIL LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA. THIS SLOWER
SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT MAY REQUIRE A TEMPORAL EXTENSION OF
THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF GLACIER, PONDERA, AND TETON
COUNTIES GIVEN THE CURRENT 21Z EXPIRATION. OTHERWISE THE REMAINING
HIGH WIND WARNINGS REMAIN ON TRACK. THIS EVENT WILL STRESS
INFRASTRUCTURE ACROSS THE AREA, WITH ~7 TO 14 HOURS OF CONTINUOUS
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 40-50 MPH AND/OR GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.
- MOLDAN
WINTER WEATHER HAZARDS:
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE FROM
GLACIER NP TO AS FAR SOUTH AS ROGERS PASS AS HIGHER INTENSITY
SNOWFALL RATES AND STRONGER WINDS CONTINUE. FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE
DIVIDE, SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DECREASE, BUT PERIODS OF MORE INTENSE SNOW
AND WINDS COULD CREATE LOCALIZED PERIODS OF BLOWING SNOW WITH
VISIBILITY 1/2 MILE OR LESS FROM MACDONALD PASS SOUTH THROUGH NW
BEAVERHEAD COUNTY.
AREAS ADJACENT TO THE EAST GLACIER REGION AND ROCKY MTN FRONT MAY
SEE SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AS SNOW SHOWERS MOVE OFF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE FOLLOWING THE PACIFIC FRONT THURSDAY MORNING. THE
COMBINATION OF VERY STRONG WINDS (GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 70MPH), SOME
FRESH SNOWFALL AND DOWNSTREAM WIND TRANSPORT OF SNOW FROM AREAS TO
THE WEST, COULD ALSO PRODUCE REDUCED VISIBILITY IN BLOWING SNOW,
THOUGH NOT TO THE EXTENT AS AREAS FURTHER WEST. - HOENISCH
THE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
MONTANA PLAINS AND ISLAND RANGES HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO EITHER A
WINTER STORM WARNING OR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM THIS EVENING
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON; WITH THE FOCUS FOR THE HEAVIEST SNOW AND
SUBSEQUENT IMPACTS EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MT HWY 200
CORRIDOR, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN GREAT FALLS AND LEWISTOWN, AND WEST OF
THE US HWY 89 CORRIDOR FROM GREAT FALLS TO BROWNING. NORTH AND EAST
OF THIS LINE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BEGIN TO DROP OFF AND WITH THIS BEING
A MULTI-DAY SNOWFALL EVENT THE EXPECTED IMPACTS ARE LIKELY TO BE
THAT OF THE NUISANCE VARIETY. SOUTH OF THE LITTLE BELT AND SNOWY
MOUNTAINS A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED TO INCLUDE THE BIG
BELT, BRIDGER AND CASTLE MOUNTAINS, ELKHORN AND BOULDER MOUNTAINS,
HELENA VALLEY, AND MEAGHER COUNTY VALLEYS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON HOW
FAR SOUTH THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SNOW BAND MOVES. FINALLY THE
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE UPPER BLACKFOOT AND MACDONALD PASS,
WHICH CURRENTLY RUNS THROUGH NOON FRIDAY, MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
FURTHER INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ONCE AGAIN
IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE PERSISTENT SNOW WILL BE OVER THIS TIME. - MOLDAN
AVIATION
12/06Z TAF PERIOD
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT REGION WIDE, WITH WINDS
PEAKING THURSDAY MORNING (BETWEEN 13/12Z-13/18Z). BEFORE WINDS
PICK UP, LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE A CONCERN. WINDS WILL
LIKELY BE THE STRONGEST OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL MT PLAINS, WHERE
THEY COULD PEAK BETWEEN 55-65KTS. PRECIPITATION WILL COME OFF OF
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THURSDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON AND WILL BRING
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO LOWER ELEVATIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL
HELP DECREASE WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL
STALL OUT ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A
LITTLE UNCERTAINTY IN PRECIPITATION TIMING FOR TERMINALS DUE TO
DIFFERENCES IN FRONT TIMING/IF SHOWERS OVERCOME THE DRY SURFACE
AIR. -WILSON
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 47 26 29 21 / 40 70 90 80
CTB 39 19 27 14 / 30 70 80 70
HLN 47 30 39 27 / 90 90 100 90
BZN 53 32 49 31 / 30 50 60 80
WYS 45 31 44 31 / 40 50 80 70
DLN 52 36 54 36 / 30 20 30 50
HVR 45 20 33 16 / 50 50 40 60
LWT 45 22 31 18 / 70 100 100 100
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 3 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR EAST GLACIER
PARK REGION-SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR BEAVERHEAD AND
WESTERN MADISON BELOW 6000FT-BIG BELT, BRIDGER AND CASTLE
MOUNTAINS-CANYON FERRY AREA-CASCADE COUNTY BELOW 5000FT-EASTERN
PONDERA AND EASTERN TETON-EASTERN TOOLE AND LIBERTY-ELKHORN AND
BOULDER MOUNTAINS-GALLATIN VALLEY-GALLATIN AND MADISON COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AND CENTENNIAL MOUNTAINS-GATES OF THE MOUNTAINS-HELENA
VALLEY-JUDITH BASIN COUNTY AND JUDITH GAP-LITTLE BELT AND
HIGHWOOD MOUNTAINS-MADISON RIVER VALLEY-MEAGHER COUNTY VALLEYS-
MISSOURI HEADWATERS-NORTHWEST BEAVERHEAD COUNTY-RUBY MOUNTAINS
AND SOUTHERN BEAVERHEAD MOUNTAINS-UPPER BLACKFOOT AND MACDONALD
PASS-WESTERN AND CENTRAL CHOUTEAU COUNTY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS-SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM MDT
SATURDAY FOR BEARS PAW MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN BLAINE-EASTERN
GLACIER, WESTERN TOOLE, AND CENTRAL PONDERA-EASTERN TOOLE AND
LIBERTY-WESTERN AND CENTRAL CHOUTEAU COUNTY.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM MDT
SATURDAY FOR EAST GLACIER PARK REGION-SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN
FRONT.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM MDT SATURDAY
FOR LITTLE BELT AND HIGHWOOD MOUNTAINS-SNOWY AND JUDITH
MOUNTAINS.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
FOR BIG BELT, BRIDGER AND CASTLE MOUNTAINS-ELKHORN AND BOULDER
MOUNTAINS-HELENA VALLEY-MEAGHER COUNTY VALLEYS.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 3 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR EAST GLACIER
PARK REGION-EASTERN GLACIER, WESTERN TOOLE, AND CENTRAL PONDERA-
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS-SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS-SOUTHERN ROCKY
MOUNTAIN FRONT.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM MDT SATURDAY
FOR CASCADE COUNTY BELOW 5000FT-EASTERN PONDERA AND EASTERN
TETON-FERGUS COUNTY BELOW 4500FT-GATES OF THE MOUNTAINS-JUDITH
BASIN COUNTY AND JUDITH GAP-NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS-SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR BEARS PAW
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN BLAINE-FERGUS COUNTY BELOW 4500FT-HILL
COUNTY-NORTHERN BLAINE COUNTY-SNOWY AND JUDITH MOUNTAINS.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT FRIDAY FOR NORTHWEST
BEAVERHEAD COUNTY-UPPER BLACKFOOT AND MACDONALD PASS.
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