185
FXUS65 KTFX 122026
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
226 PM MDT THU MAR 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG WINDS WILL DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST MONTANA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
- GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW
NEAR THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT THROUGH THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE WINDS DECREASE TONIGHT.
- A FEW BRIEF BUT INTENSE SHOWERS WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW WILL
AFFECT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MONTANA THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
- SNOW BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE
TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MT
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
A ROBUST PLUME OF PACIFIC MOISTURE EMBEDDED WITHIN A FAST WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND MONTANA THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND. THE CORE OF FASTEST WINDS
ALOFT HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA, AND THE STRONGEST WINDS HAVE
ABATED ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF GREAT FALLS TO LEWISTOWN, BUT STRONG
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MT AND
SOUTHWEST MT THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. A PACIFIC FRONTAL
BOUNDARY HAS BECOME ALIGNED E-W WITH THE FLOW ALOFT ACROSS CENTRAL
MT, WHILE A CANADIAN AIRMASS CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTH
ACROSS N-CENTRAL MT AND IS EXPECTED TO REACH CENTRAL MT THIS
EVENING. BANDS OF SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THESE FRONTS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING WITH ENOUGH COOLING FOR PRECIPITATION
TYPE TO BE PRIMARILY SNOW BY THIS EVENING AS LOWER LEVELS FURTHER
COOL ACROSS THE AREA. MEANWHILE OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN SNOW
CONTINUES ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND SHOULD RE-INTENSIFY
LATER TONIGHT AS DEEPER PACIFIC MOISTURE ARRIVES. SNOW BECOMES
STEADIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL MT
AS WELL LATER TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE PACIFIC MOISTURE
OVERRUNS THE STALLED E-W FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SNOW INTENSITY LOOKS TO
BE LIGHT INITIALLY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE A SERIES OF
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES BRING SOME ENHANCED FORCING FOR
PERIODS OF MODERATE SNOWFALL IN THE LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
PERIOD. SNOW WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT BUT MAY LINGER
INTO SUNDAY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL MT. THE COOLER AIRMASS
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING AND OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AS
LOW AS THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
ACROSS SOUTHWEST MT REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH
SOME COOLING THERE BRIEFLY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ON TRACK TO BUILDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR
WESTERN US NEXT WEEK FOR A RETURN TO DRIER AND MUCH WARMER
CONDITIONS. HOENISCH
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
BANDS OF SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL MT MAY BE LOCALLY INTENSE THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS INITIALLY MAY BEGIN AS RAIN OR GRAUPEL AT
LOWER ELEVATIONS, BUT A TRANSITION TO SNOW CAN LOCALLY REDUCE
VISIBILITY AND BRING SOME ACCUMULATION OF SLUSH ON SOME ROAD
SURFACES. WHILE ROAD SURFACES ARE WARM STILL THIS AFTERNOON, COOLING
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE WIDESPREAD AREAS
OF LIGHT SNOW COULD LEAD TO SOME SLICK ROAD SURFACES BY FRIDAY
MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IN SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION CONTINUES TO INCREASE
FOR THE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD ACROSS AREAS FROM THE
ROCKY MTN FRONT EAST ACROSS CENTRAL MT WHERE THERE IS A 60% OR
HIGHER PROBABILITY OF 6 INCH OR GREATER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF A FOOT OR MORE EXISTS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MT MOUNTAINS AND OVER THE ROCKY MTN FRONT, BUT EVEN LOWER
ELEVATIONS IN JUDITH BASIN AND FERGUS COUNTIES HAVE A 50-60% RISK
OF SNOWFALL AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 12 INCHES.
WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS LOOK TO BE GREATEST IN THE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD BUT THIS IS LONGER DURATION SNOWFALL EVENT
WITH SOME AREAS ALREADY DEALING WINTER/SNOWFALL IMPACTS THAT BEGAN
LAST NIGHT. HOENISCH
AVIATION
12/18Z TAF PERIOD
INITIAL CONCERN THIS TAF PERIOD WILL BE FOR CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS IN
MOST AREAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON, DECREASING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS STREAMING ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE A MORE STRATIFORM TYPE OF
PRECIPITATION BECOMES DOMINANT THIS EVENING. A FEW INSTANCES OF
LIGHTNING CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE SHOWERY ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON.
AT LEAST LIGHT INTERMITTENT SNOW WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING OVER THE
PLAINS, WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS IN LEWISTOWN OVERNIGHT.
MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. -AM
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 27 33 21 29 / 70 90 80 100
CTB 20 29 13 23 / 50 50 70 90
HLN 33 42 29 38 / 70 80 90 100
BZN 33 52 30 45 / 50 50 80 100
WYS 31 45 31 41 / 40 60 70 100
DLN 37 57 37 48 / 20 30 40 80
HVR 22 34 15 28 / 40 30 60 80
LWT 23 31 18 30 / 90 100 90 100
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR EAST GLACIER
PARK REGION-LITTLE BELT AND HIGHWOOD MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST
BEAVERHEAD COUNTY-SNOWY AND JUDITH MOUNTAINS-SOUTHERN ROCKY
MOUNTAIN FRONT-UPPER BLACKFOOT AND MACDONALD PASS.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM MDT
SATURDAY FOR BEARS PAW MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN BLAINE-EASTERN
GLACIER, WESTERN TOOLE, AND CENTRAL PONDERA-EASTERN TOOLE AND
LIBERTY-WESTERN AND CENTRAL CHOUTEAU COUNTY.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR BEAVERHEAD AND
WESTERN MADISON BELOW 6000FT-BIG BELT, BRIDGER AND CASTLE
MOUNTAINS-CANYON FERRY AREA-CASCADE COUNTY BELOW 5000FT-ELKHORN
AND BOULDER MOUNTAINS-FERGUS COUNTY BELOW 4500FT-GALLATIN VALLEY-
GALLATIN AND MADISON COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND CENTENNIAL MOUNTAINS-
GATES OF THE MOUNTAINS-HELENA VALLEY-JUDITH BASIN COUNTY AND
JUDITH GAP-LITTLE BELT AND HIGHWOOD MOUNTAINS-MADISON RIVER
VALLEY-MEAGHER COUNTY VALLEYS-MISSOURI HEADWATERS-NORTHWEST
BEAVERHEAD COUNTY-RUBY MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN BEAVERHEAD
MOUNTAINS-SNOWY AND JUDITH MOUNTAINS-UPPER BLACKFOOT AND
MACDONALD PASS.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS-SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM MDT SATURDAY
FOR BIG BELT, BRIDGER AND CASTLE MOUNTAINS-CASCADE COUNTY BELOW
5000FT-EASTERN PONDERA AND EASTERN TETON-ELKHORN AND BOULDER
MOUNTAINS-FERGUS COUNTY BELOW 4500FT-GATES OF THE MOUNTAINS-
HELENA VALLEY-JUDITH BASIN COUNTY AND JUDITH GAP-MEAGHER COUNTY
VALLEYS-NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS-SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
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