081
FXUS65 KTFX 130556
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1156 PM MDT THU MAR 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY MOUNTAIN AND LOWER ELEVATION SNOW
CONTINUES ON AND OFF THROUGH SATURDAY.
- GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED IN SOUTHWEST MONTANA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN NEXT WEEK, WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION
IN MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS.
DISCUSSION
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
PACIFIC MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE REGION. THIS
MOISTURE OVERRIDING THE COLDER AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO FILL IN
SNOW ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MT TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD SNOW IS EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE ACROSS THE
MT HIGHWAY 200 CORRIDOR, WILL BRING PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW ALONG THAT STRIP THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THE SURFACE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO STALL OUT ALONG THE MISSOURI
HEADWATERS REGION, WITH THE MID-LEVEL FRONT WAVERING A BIT NORTH-
SOUTH OF THE MT HIGHWAY 200 CORRIDOR THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL
BRING PERIODS OF WIDESPREAD SNOW FOR PLACES MOSTLY NORTH OF
I-90/MISSOURI HEADWATERS THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH MODERATE AND
HEAVY SNOW MORE CONCENTRATED ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL MT.
OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED SNOW CONTINUES ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE AND MOUNTAINS THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT
WILL HELP AID IN CONTINUING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AT MOUNTAIN
PASSES.
MOST OF THE MOUNTAIN SNOW IN SOUTHWEST MT WILL BE ABOVE PASS
LEVEL DUE TO THE WARMER CONDITIONS SOUTH OF THE FRONT. THOUGH
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES DROPPING CLOSE OR BELOW FREEZING WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP. THE MAIN CONCERN IN SOUTHWEST MT
WILL BE GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. FRIDAY, DECENT MID-LEVEL
WINDS WILL TRY TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY PRESSURE GRADIENT DRIVEN AS THAT LOW
FINALLY PUSHES SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE REGION. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
LOOK TO DEVELOP AS THIS SYSTEM TRIES TO PUSH IN COLDER AIR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING INTO SOUTHWEST MT, WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A FEW LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS/SNOW SQUALLS.
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK, WE TRANSITION TO A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
PATTERN WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING IN THE WESTERN U.S. A FEW
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE WEEK,
BRINGING LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND WINDY CONDITIONS. ANOTHER STRONG
MID LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND CENTRAL MT
LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF STRONG WINDS. WARM TEMPERATURES MOVE IN BY MID-WEEK. OVERNIGHT
COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 30S SHOULD LIMIT ANY FLOODING
CONCERNS DUE TO SNOW MELT.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
SNOW THROUGH SATURDAY:
HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS IN HEAVY SNOWFALL DEVELOPING ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND CENTRAL MT MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT,
CONTINUING ON AND OFF THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENT MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL CONTINUE MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW BANDS IN
FERGUS AND JUDITH BASIN COUNTIES AT TIMES. SNOW FILLING IN ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL MT TONIGHT WILL BRING SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
BANDING, BUT IT WILL BE MORE LOCALIZED TONIGHT. BETTER CHANCES FOR
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL AT LOWER ELEVATIONS ACROSS NORTH-
CENTRAL MT WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY. ANY WET PAVEMENTS
FROM THIS EVENING WILL FREEZE AND BECOME SLICK OVERNIGHT, WHICH
WILL AFFECT THE FRIDAY MORNING AND EVENING COMMUTES REGARDLESS IN
HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS OVERNIGHT.
ONE AREA OF UNCERTAINTY IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IS THE HI-LINE/CHOUTEAU
COUNTY. SO FAR THEY ARE ON THE CUTOFF LINE WHERE BETTER SNOW BANDING
DEVELOPS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE
CONVERGENCE ZONE SETS UP, THEY COULD GET MORE OR LESS THAN
FORECASTED. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY UPGRADES TO THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY, ESPECIALLY CHOUTEAU COUNTY. SATURDAY, WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE SLIGHT POTENTIAL IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW
SQUALLS, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHWEST MT. A FRONT BRINGING IN COLDER
AIR ALOFT LOOKS TO DROP SURFACE WET BULB TEMPERATURES BELOW
FREEZING, SO DYNAMIC COOLING COULD HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES TO
FREEZING AND DEVELOP MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS. -WILSON
AVIATION
13/06Z TAF PERIOD
LIGHT SNOW WILL AFFECT MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL MT THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SOME SHORT BREAKS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT OVERALL EXPECT NEAR
IFR CONDITIONS OR LOWER THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR SOUTHWEST MT, IT
WILL NOT BE AS BAD. SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL PASS THROUGH THE
TERMINALS, BUT A LONG LASTING PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME DURING THIS PERIOD OVER SW MT. MOUNTAINS/PASSES WILL BE
OBSCURED ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE PERIOD. BRUSDA
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 45 27 34 25 / 40 70 100 90
CTB 36 20 29 18 / 60 70 80 70
HLN 48 33 44 31 / 70 80 100 100
BZN 57 34 55 36 / 20 50 70 60
WYS 49 31 45 30 / 40 40 60 60
DLN 53 37 56 38 / 50 20 30 40
HVR 47 22 35 20 / 70 40 50 60
LWT 48 23 32 21 / 60 100 100 100
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR BIG BELT,
BRIDGER AND CASTLE MOUNTAINS-CASCADE COUNTY BELOW 5000FT-EAST
GLACIER PARK REGION-EASTERN PONDERA AND EASTERN TETON-ELKHORN
AND BOULDER MOUNTAINS-FERGUS COUNTY BELOW 4500FT-GATES OF THE
MOUNTAINS-HELENA VALLEY-JUDITH BASIN COUNTY AND JUDITH GAP-
LITTLE BELT AND HIGHWOOD MOUNTAINS-MEAGHER COUNTY VALLEYS-
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS-NORTHWEST BEAVERHEAD COUNTY-SNOWY AND
JUDITH MOUNTAINS-SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS-SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN
FRONT-UPPER BLACKFOOT AND MACDONALD PASS.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR BEARS PAW
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN BLAINE-EASTERN GLACIER, WESTERN TOOLE,
AND CENTRAL PONDERA-EASTERN TOOLE AND LIBERTY-WESTERN AND
CENTRAL CHOUTEAU COUNTY.
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