673
FXUS65 KTFX 131756
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1156 AM MDT FRI MAR 13 2026
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY MOUNTAIN AND LOWER ELEVATION SNOW
CONTINUES ON AND OFF THROUGH SATURDAY.
- GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED IN SOUTHWEST MONTANA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN NEXT WEEK, WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION
IN MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS.
UPDATE
/ISSUED 351 AM MDT FRI MAR 13 2026/
345 AM...UPDATED MORNING FORECAST IS OUT. MAIN ADJUSTMENT WAS TO
INCREASE POPS OVER NORTH CENTRAL MT WHERE IT IS SNOWING. EXPECT
LIGHT SNOW TO AFFECT MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL MT THROUGH THIS
MORNING, WITH GRADUAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. BRUSDA
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 351 AM MDT FRI MAR 13 2026/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
PACIFIC MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE REGION. THIS
MOISTURE OVERRIDING THE COLDER AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO FILL IN
SNOW ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MT TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD SNOW IS EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE ACROSS THE
MT HIGHWAY 200 CORRIDOR, WILL BRING PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW ALONG THAT STRIP THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THE SURFACE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO STALL OUT ALONG THE MISSOURI
HEADWATERS REGION, WITH THE MID-LEVEL FRONT WAVERING A BIT NORTH-
SOUTH OF THE MT HIGHWAY 200 CORRIDOR THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL
BRING PERIODS OF WIDESPREAD SNOW FOR PLACES MOSTLY NORTH OF
I-90/MISSOURI HEADWATERS THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH MODERATE AND
HEAVY SNOW MORE CONCENTRATED ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL MT.
OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED SNOW CONTINUES ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE AND MOUNTAINS THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT
WILL HELP AID IN CONTINUING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AT MOUNTAIN
PASSES.
MOST OF THE MOUNTAIN SNOW IN SOUTHWEST MT WILL BE ABOVE PASS
LEVEL DUE TO THE WARMER CONDITIONS SOUTH OF THE FRONT. THOUGH
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES DROPPING CLOSE OR BELOW FREEZING WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP. THE MAIN CONCERN IN SOUTHWEST MT
WILL BE GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. FRIDAY, DECENT MID-LEVEL
WINDS WILL TRY TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY PRESSURE GRADIENT DRIVEN AS THAT LOW
FINALLY PUSHES SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE REGION. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
LOOK TO DEVELOP AS THIS SYSTEM TRIES TO PUSH IN COLDER AIR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING INTO SOUTHWEST MT, WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A FEW LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS/SNOW SQUALLS.
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK, WE TRANSITION TO A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
PATTERN WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING IN THE WESTERN U.S. A FEW
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE WEEK,
BRINGING LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND WINDY CONDITIONS. ANOTHER STRONG
MID LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND CENTRAL MT
LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF STRONG WINDS. WARM TEMPERATURES MOVE IN BY MID-WEEK. OVERNIGHT
COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 30S SHOULD LIMIT ANY FLOODING
CONCERNS DUE TO SNOW MELT.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
SNOW THROUGH SATURDAY:
HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS IN HEAVY SNOWFALL DEVELOPING ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND CENTRAL MT MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT,
CONTINUING ON AND OFF THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENT MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL CONTINUE MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW BANDS IN
FERGUS AND JUDITH BASIN COUNTIES AT TIMES. SNOW FILLING IN ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL MT TONIGHT WILL BRING SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
BANDING, BUT IT WILL BE MORE LOCALIZED TONIGHT. BETTER CHANCES FOR
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL AT LOWER ELEVATIONS ACROSS NORTH-
CENTRAL MT WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY. ANY WET PAVEMENTS
FROM THIS EVENING WILL FREEZE AND BECOME SLICK OVERNIGHT, WHICH
WILL AFFECT THE FRIDAY MORNING AND EVENING COMMUTES REGARDLESS IN
HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS OVERNIGHT.
ONE AREA OF UNCERTAINTY IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IS THE HI-LINE/CHOUTEAU
COUNTY. SO FAR THEY ARE ON THE CUTOFF LINE WHERE BETTER SNOW BANDING
DEVELOPS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE
CONVERGENCE ZONE SETS UP, THEY COULD GET MORE OR LESS THAN
FORECASTED. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY UPGRADES TO THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY, ESPECIALLY CHOUTEAU COUNTY. SATURDAY, WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE SLIGHT POTENTIAL IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW
SQUALLS, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHWEST MT. A FRONT BRINGING IN COLDER
AIR ALOFT LOOKS TO DROP SURFACE WET BULB TEMPERATURES BELOW
FREEZING, SO DYNAMIC COOLING COULD HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES TO
FREEZING AND DEVELOP MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS. -WILSON
AVIATION
13/18Z TAF PERIOD
NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA (KCTB, KHVR):
THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT
WITH KCTB EXPECTED TO BE RIGHT ALONG THE BORDER OF WHERE HEAVIER
SNOW IS LOCATED. THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS WILL MAINTAIN VFR
CONDITIONS BEFORE LOW CLOUDS MOVE IN TOWARDS THE MID-AFTERNOON
WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SNOW THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE REST
OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE THREAT FOR LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS WILL START
AFTER 14/00Z AND LAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION WILL REMAIN A CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FURTHER EAST ALONG THE HI-LINE TOWARDS KHVR, SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT BY 13/20Z WITH A TEMPORARY BREAK IN THE SNOW BEFORE ANOTHER
ROUND OF SNOW ARRIVES AFTER 14/06Z. THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD
A MIX OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT KHVR.
CENTRAL MONTANA (KGTF, KLWT, KHLN):
SNOW WILL CONTINUE ON AND OFF THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY WITH A
MORE POTENT PUSH OF SNOW EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
BOTH KGTF AND KLWT WILL LIKELY FLUCTUATE BETWEEN IFR AND LIFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR
LIFR/VLIFR AFTER 14/06Z.
KHLN WILL MAINTAIN MVFR THROUGH THE START OF THE PERIOD AND DIP
DOWN INTO IFR OVERNIGHT WITH THE NEXT PUSH OF MOISTURE.
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL GENERALLY BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX AS
TEMPERATURES WILL LINGER RIGHT ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE BETWEEN 14/09Z AND 14/18Z.
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL REMAIN A CONCERN THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
SOUTHWEST MONTANA (KBZN, KEKS):
MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION REMAINING A CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 30 HOURS. GUSTY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MONTANA WITH INSTANCES OF LLWS POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY AT KEKS.
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST EXCEPT AROUND RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS WHERE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
-THOR
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 34 25 31 9 / 100 90 100 80
CTB 29 18 24 -2 / 100 80 90 30
HLN 44 31 42 13 / 100 90 90 90
BZN 55 36 49 13 / 70 50 80 80
WYS 45 30 42 7 / 50 50 90 70
DLN 56 38 49 17 / 30 30 70 40
HVR 35 20 29 6 / 50 70 90 50
LWT 32 21 34 5 / 100 100 100 80
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR BIG BELT,
BRIDGER AND CASTLE MOUNTAINS-CASCADE COUNTY BELOW 5000FT-EAST
GLACIER PARK REGION-EASTERN PONDERA AND EASTERN TETON-ELKHORN
AND BOULDER MOUNTAINS-FERGUS COUNTY BELOW 4500FT-GATES OF THE
MOUNTAINS-HELENA VALLEY-JUDITH BASIN COUNTY AND JUDITH GAP-
LITTLE BELT AND HIGHWOOD MOUNTAINS-MEAGHER COUNTY VALLEYS-
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS-NORTHWEST BEAVERHEAD COUNTY-SNOWY AND
JUDITH MOUNTAINS-SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS-SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN
FRONT-UPPER BLACKFOOT AND MACDONALD PASS.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR BEARS PAW
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN BLAINE-EASTERN GLACIER, WESTERN TOOLE,
AND CENTRAL PONDERA-EASTERN TOOLE AND LIBERTY-WESTERN AND
CENTRAL CHOUTEAU COUNTY.
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