089
FXUS65 KTFX 132034
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
234 PM MDT FRI MAR 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW CONTINUES TODAY WITH AREAS OF HEAVY SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS
ON SATURDAY.
- GUSTY WINDS RETURN NEXT WEEK.
- WARMTH RETURNS TO THE AREA AS A HEATWAVE BUILDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN US.
DISCUSSION
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
A DYNAMIC ATMOSPHERIC RIVER CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE AREA TODAY
AND TOMORROW, BRINGING WIDESPREAD SNOW TO NORTH CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. THIS ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY, THOUGH SOME
ENHANCEMENT IN SNOWFALL RATES AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. EXPECT
SNOWFALL RATES TO INCREASE TONIGHT, WITH WINDS ACROSS SW MONTANA
STRENGTHENING TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
SNOW WILL SLOWLY TAPER OFF SATURDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS NEAR THE SURFACE AND THE END OF THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER MOVES
TO OUR EAST. ONCE THIS HAPPENS, WE WILL HAVE ONE DAY OF COOLER
TEMPERATURES BEFORE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO RAPIDLY RISE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS IN ACROSS THE WESTERN US. WITH THE TOP OF THE RIDGE BEING
OVER OR JUST NORTH OF MONTANA, IT WILL BE ANOTHER WINDY WEEK, WITH
MULTIPLE DAYS OF STRONG WIND GUSTS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN FRONT.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
SNOW AND WIND THROUGH SATURDAY: SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL ACROSS
A LARGE PORTION OF NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MONTANA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT, WITH THE HEAVIEST
SNOW FOCUSED ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM TREAT FALLS TO
LEWISTOWN, AND NORTH OF A HELENA TO WHITE SULPHUR SPRINGS LINE.
THIS SNOW WILL BEGIN TO INTENSIFY LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES INTO EASTERN
WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN IDAHO, RESULTING IN MORE FAVORABLE
ATMOSPHERIC DYNAMICS/LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THIS WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
MONTANA, ALONG WITH A TEMPORARY NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER,
AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES ON ITS EASTWARD PATH, WE WILL SEE SOME
INSTABILITY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA THAT MAY RESULT IN SOME
GUSTY SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS IN ADDITION TO SOME GUSTY WINDS MIXING
TO THE SURFACE FROM DAYTIME HEATING. FURTHER NORTH, THE PASSAGE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PULL DOWN A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM
CANADA, WHICH COULD RESULT IN A BARRIER JET TO FORM ALONG THE
ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND CAUSE SOME GUSTY WINDS FOR A TIME, WHICH
MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED BLOWING SNOW ALONG AND WEST OF THE I 15
CORRIDOR NORTH OF CASCADE/GREAT FALLS.
WINDS NEXT WEEK: THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN US WILL BUILD EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WHICH WILL PUSH THE JET STREAM BACK OVER OUR AREA FOR AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WITH THE JET STREAM OVERHEAD, NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS AT THE SURFACE, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT, AND POSSIBLY JUST EAST OF THE
HIGHWOOD, BEARS PAW, LITTLE BELT, JUDITH, AND SNOWY MOUNTAIN
RANGES. THE HIGHEST RISK FOR STRONG WINDS WILL LOOK TO BE AROUND
TUESDAY, WHEN THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PIVOT
OVERHEAD AND WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY. WINDS ARE NOT CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG AS THE PAST FEW WIND EVENTS, BUT THE
ACCUMULATED WIND STRESS FROM PAST WIND EVENTS THIS YEAR COULD
STILL RESULT IN SOME DAMAGE. LUDWIG
AVIATION
13/18Z TAF PERIOD
NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA (KCTB, KHVR):
THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT
WITH KCTB EXPECTED TO BE RIGHT ALONG THE BORDER OF WHERE HEAVIER
SNOW IS LOCATED. THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS WILL MAINTAIN VFR
CONDITIONS BEFORE LOW CLOUDS MOVE IN TOWARDS THE MID-AFTERNOON
WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SNOW THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE REST
OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE THREAT FOR LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS WILL START
AFTER 14/00Z AND LAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION WILL REMAIN A CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FURTHER EAST ALONG THE HI-LINE TOWARDS KHVR, SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT BY 13/20Z WITH A TEMPORARY BREAK IN THE SNOW BEFORE ANOTHER
ROUND OF SNOW ARRIVES AFTER 14/06Z. THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD
A MIX OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT KHVR.
CENTRAL MONTANA (KGTF, KLWT, KHLN):
SNOW WILL CONTINUE ON AND OFF THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY WITH A
MORE POTENT PUSH OF SNOW EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
BOTH KGTF AND KLWT WILL LIKELY FLUCTUATE BETWEEN IFR AND LIFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR
LIFR/VLIFR AFTER 14/06Z.
KHLN WILL MAINTAIN MVFR THROUGH THE START OF THE PERIOD AND DIP
DOWN INTO IFR OVERNIGHT WITH THE NEXT PUSH OF MOISTURE.
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL GENERALLY BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX AS
TEMPERATURES WILL LINGER RIGHT ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE BETWEEN 14/09Z AND 14/18Z.
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL REMAIN A CONCERN THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
SOUTHWEST MONTANA (KBZN, KEKS):
MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION REMAINING A CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 30 HOURS. GUSTY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MONTANA WITH INSTANCES OF LLWS POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY AT KEKS.
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST EXCEPT AROUND RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS WHERE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
-THOR
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 25 31 8 30 / 90 100 80 10
CTB 17 25 -2 26 / 80 90 30 0
HLN 32 43 12 35 / 90 90 90 10
BZN 38 50 13 36 / 50 80 80 10
WYS 30 43 5 30 / 50 90 70 20
DLN 38 49 17 38 / 30 70 40 0
HVR 20 30 5 27 / 70 90 50 0
LWT 21 34 4 27 / 100 100 80 20
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR BIG BELT,
BRIDGER AND CASTLE MOUNTAINS-CASCADE COUNTY BELOW 5000FT-EAST
GLACIER PARK REGION-EASTERN PONDERA AND EASTERN TETON-ELKHORN
AND BOULDER MOUNTAINS-FERGUS COUNTY BELOW 4500FT-GATES OF THE
MOUNTAINS-HELENA VALLEY-JUDITH BASIN COUNTY AND JUDITH GAP-
LITTLE BELT AND HIGHWOOD MOUNTAINS-MEAGHER COUNTY VALLEYS-
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS-NORTHWEST BEAVERHEAD COUNTY-SNOWY AND
JUDITH MOUNTAINS-SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS-SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN
FRONT-UPPER BLACKFOOT AND MACDONALD PASS.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR BEARS PAW
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN BLAINE-EASTERN GLACIER, WESTERN TOOLE,
AND CENTRAL PONDERA-EASTERN TOOLE AND LIBERTY-WESTERN AND
CENTRAL CHOUTEAU COUNTY.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR BEAVERHEAD
AND WESTERN MADISON BELOW 6000FT-BIG BELT, BRIDGER AND CASTLE
MOUNTAINS-CANYON FERRY AREA-ELKHORN AND BOULDER MOUNTAINS-
GALLATIN VALLEY-GALLATIN AND MADISON COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND
CENTENNIAL MOUNTAINS-MADISON RIVER VALLEY-MISSOURI HEADWATERS-
NORTHWEST BEAVERHEAD COUNTY-RUBY MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN
BEAVERHEAD MOUNTAINS.
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
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