899
FXUS65 KTFX 140528
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1128 PM MDT FRI MAR 13 2026
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW CONTINUES TODAY WITH AREAS OF HEAVY SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS
ON SATURDAY.
- GUSTY WINDS RETURN NEXT WEEK.
- WARMTH RETURNS TO THE AREA AS A HEATWAVE BUILDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN US.
UPDATE
/ISSUED 857 PM MDT FRI MAR 13 2026/
MOIST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVERRUNNING THE COOL, MOIST LOW LEVEL
AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL MT WILL MAINTAIN PERIODS OF
SNOW OVER CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL MT. POPS, SNOW TOTALS, AND
TEMPERATURES WERE NUDGED TOWARDS CURRENT TRENDS. THE MAIN
ADJUSTMENT WAS TO BETTER ALIGN FORECAST PARAMETERS WITH SATRUDAY'S
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE, THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE
REMAINS ON TRACK. - RCG
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 857 PM MDT FRI MAR 13 2026/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
A DYNAMIC ATMOSPHERIC RIVER CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE AREA TODAY
AND TOMORROW, BRINGING WIDESPREAD SNOW TO NORTH CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. THIS ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY, THOUGH SOME
ENHANCEMENT IN SNOWFALL RATES AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. EXPECT
SNOWFALL RATES TO INCREASE TONIGHT, WITH WINDS ACROSS SW MONTANA
STRENGTHENING TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
SNOW WILL SLOWLY TAPER OFF SATURDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS NEAR THE SURFACE AND THE END OF THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER MOVES
TO OUR EAST. ONCE THIS HAPPENS, WE WILL HAVE ONE DAY OF COOLER
TEMPERATURES BEFORE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO RAPIDLY RISE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS IN ACROSS THE WESTERN US. WITH THE TOP OF THE RIDGE BEING
OVER OR JUST NORTH OF MONTANA, IT WILL BE ANOTHER WINDY WEEK, WITH
MULTIPLE DAYS OF STRONG WIND GUSTS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN FRONT.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
SNOW AND WIND THROUGH SATURDAY: SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL ACROSS
A LARGE PORTION OF NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MONTANA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT, WITH THE HEAVIEST
SNOW FOCUSED ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM TREAT FALLS TO
LEWISTOWN, AND NORTH OF A HELENA TO WHITE SULPHUR SPRINGS LINE.
THIS SNOW WILL BEGIN TO INTENSIFY LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES INTO EASTERN
WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN IDAHO, RESULTING IN MORE FAVORABLE
ATMOSPHERIC DYNAMICS/LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THIS WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
MONTANA, ALONG WITH A TEMPORARY NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER,
AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES ON ITS EASTWARD PATH, WE WILL SEE SOME
INSTABILITY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA THAT MAY RESULT IN SOME
GUSTY SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS IN ADDITION TO SOME GUSTY WINDS MIXING
TO THE SURFACE FROM DAYTIME HEATING. FURTHER NORTH, THE PASSAGE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PULL DOWN A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM
CANADA, WHICH COULD RESULT IN A BARRIER JET TO FORM ALONG THE
ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND CAUSE SOME GUSTY WINDS FOR A TIME, WHICH
MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED BLOWING SNOW ALONG AND WEST OF THE I 15
CORRIDOR NORTH OF CASCADE/GREAT FALLS.
WINDS NEXT WEEK: THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN US WILL BUILD EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WHICH WILL PUSH THE JET STREAM BACK OVER OUR AREA FOR AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WITH THE JET STREAM OVERHEAD, NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS AT THE SURFACE, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT, AND POSSIBLY JUST EAST OF THE
HIGHWOOD, BEARS PAW, LITTLE BELT, JUDITH, AND SNOWY MOUNTAIN
RANGES. THE HIGHEST RISK FOR STRONG WINDS WILL LOOK TO BE AROUND
TUESDAY, WHEN THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PIVOT
OVERHEAD AND WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY. WINDS ARE NOT CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG AS THE PAST FEW WIND EVENTS, BUT THE
ACCUMULATED WIND STRESS FROM PAST WIND EVENTS THIS YEAR COULD
STILL RESULT IN SOME DAMAGE. LUDWIG
AVIATION
14/06Z TAF PERIOD
A STEADY STREAM OF PACIFIC MOISTURE ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL
MAINTAIN WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW AND IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST
NORTH-CENTRAL MT TERMINALS TO AS FAR SOUTH AS KHLN THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS SW MT
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT BUT CEILINGS GRADUALLY LOWER AS MOISTURE
INCREASES BY SATURDAY MORNING. STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MT WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR UNTIL
WESTERLY WINDS MIX BACK TO THE SURFACE THERE SATURDAY MORNING. A
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY BRINGING A PERIOD OF
ENHANCED SNOWFALL RATES TO NORTH-CENTRAL MT TERMINALS FOLLOWED BY
A SHIFT TO GUSTY NORTH WINDS WHICH MAY CREATE SOME ADDITIONAL
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS IN BLOWING SNOW FOR A PERIOD SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. LOCALLY INTENSE (RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW) SHOWERS
ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG WINDS GUSTS MAY OCCUR WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE ACROSS SW MT TERMINALS BETWEEN 15Z AND 20Z SATURDAY.
HOENISCH
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 25 31 8 30 / 90 90 80 10
CTB 17 25 -2 26 / 70 90 30 0
HLN 29 36 12 35 / 90 90 90 10
BZN 38 50 13 36 / 50 80 80 10
WYS 30 43 5 30 / 50 90 70 20
DLN 38 49 17 38 / 30 70 40 0
HVR 20 30 5 27 / 50 90 50 0
LWT 21 34 4 27 / 100 100 80 20
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR BIG BELT,
BRIDGER AND CASTLE MOUNTAINS-CASCADE COUNTY BELOW 5000FT-EAST
GLACIER PARK REGION-EASTERN PONDERA AND EASTERN TETON-ELKHORN
AND BOULDER MOUNTAINS-FERGUS COUNTY BELOW 4500FT-GATES OF THE
MOUNTAINS-HELENA VALLEY-JUDITH BASIN COUNTY AND JUDITH GAP-
LITTLE BELT AND HIGHWOOD MOUNTAINS-MEAGHER COUNTY VALLEYS-
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS-NORTHWEST BEAVERHEAD COUNTY-SNOWY AND
JUDITH MOUNTAINS-SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS-SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN
FRONT-UPPER BLACKFOOT AND MACDONALD PASS.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR BEARS PAW
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN BLAINE-EASTERN GLACIER, WESTERN TOOLE,
AND CENTRAL PONDERA-EASTERN TOOLE AND LIBERTY-WESTERN AND
CENTRAL CHOUTEAU COUNTY.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR BEAVERHEAD
AND WESTERN MADISON BELOW 6000FT-BIG BELT, BRIDGER AND CASTLE
MOUNTAINS-CANYON FERRY AREA-ELKHORN AND BOULDER MOUNTAINS-
GALLATIN VALLEY-GALLATIN AND MADISON COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND
CENTENNIAL MOUNTAINS-MADISON RIVER VALLEY-MISSOURI HEADWATERS-
NORTHWEST BEAVERHEAD COUNTY-RUBY MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN
BEAVERHEAD MOUNTAINS.
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
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