563
FXUS65 KTFX 141025
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
425 AM MDT SAT MAR 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ONE MORE DAY OF WIDESPREAD SNOW, INCLUDING SNOW SQUALLS AND
STRONG WINDS.
- TURNING DRIER AND WARM DURING THE WORK WEEK.
- SEVERAL DAYS OF STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE OVER NORTH CENTRAL MT NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO AFFECT OUR CWA
THIS MORNING. THIS RIVER OF PRECIPITATION GOES FROM THE STATE OF
WA TO IL THIS MORNING. CENTRAL MT IS RIGHT UNDER THE DIRECT PATH
OF THIS RIVER OF PRECIPITATION. A COLD FRONT IS NOW MOVING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN ALBERTA. THIS COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THIS
RIVER OF PRECIPITATION SOUTHWARD TODAY, THEN EVENTUALLY EASTWARD
TONIGHT, ENDING THE PRECIPITATION.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD SNOW OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL MT TODAY.
THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE WINTER STATEMENTS WAS TO ADD HILL/BLAINE
COUNTIES AS PRECIPITATION OVER SPREADS THIS AREA LATER THIS
MORNING. ADDITIONALLY, AS THE COLD FRONT MOVE SOUTHWARD FROM
CANADA, EXPECT GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS
WILL ALSO CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITY.
THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL A PORTION OF THE WINTER STATEMENTS
MIGHT NEED TO BE EXTENDED UNTIL MIDNIGHT BETWEEN GREAT FALLS AND
LEWISTOWN, AS THE SNOW WILL BE SLOW TO END THIS EVENING.
OVER SOUTHWEST MT, IT WILL BE MILD TO START. MID LEVEL WINDS ARE
PROGGED TO MIX DOWN AS THE COLD FRONT MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
SOUTHWEST MT LATER THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON. SOME WIND GUSTS WILL
APPROACH 60 MPH, THUS THE HIGH WIND WARNING WILL CONTINUE. OVERALL
THIS WILL BE A SHORT HIGH WIND EVENT, WITH MOST OF THE HIGHER
GUSTS AT RIDGE TOPS. HOWEVER, SOME HIGHER GUSTS WILL ALSO OCCUR IN
THE VALLEYS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT THIS HIGH WIND WARNING
MIGHT BE ABLE TO BE CANCELLED A FEW HOURS EARLY THIS EVENING.
ADDITIONALLY, SNOW SHOWERS/SNOW SQUALLS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHWEST MT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY
OF SNOW SQUALLS IS EAST OF A LINE FROM DILLON TO BOZEMAN LATE THIS
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
AFTER TODAY, EXPECT A WARMING TREND FOR ALL OF NEXT WEEK, WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES APPROACHING RECORD HIGHS FOR SEVERAL DAYS
NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE NUMEROUS DAYS
NEXT WEEK OVER NORTH CENTRAL, POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS MONDAY NIGHT
ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND IN THE CUT BANK AREA. HIGH WIND
STATEMENTS COULD BE ISSUED AS EARLY AS LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW FOR
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL MT.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
THERE IS NEARLY AN 80 PERCENT CHANCE OR HIGHER OF STRONG WINDS
ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND IN THE CUT BANK AREA DAILY FROM
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WIND GUSTS OVER 75 MPH HAVE AT LEAST OF 75
PERCENT CHANCE AS WELL DURING THIS SAME PERIOD. THUS HIGH WIND
STATEMENTS ARE LIKELY FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
THERE IS AT LEAST A 60 PERCENT CHANCE OR HIGHER OF AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES BREAKING RECORDS THU, FRI, AND SAT OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
14/06Z TAF PERIOD
A STEADY STREAM OF PACIFIC MOISTURE ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL
MAINTAIN WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW AND IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST
NORTH-CENTRAL MT TERMINALS TO AS FAR SOUTH AS KHLN THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS SW MT
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT BUT CEILINGS GRADUALLY LOWER AS MOISTURE
INCREASES BY SATURDAY MORNING. STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MT WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR UNTIL
WESTERLY WINDS MIX BACK TO THE SURFACE THERE SATURDAY MORNING. A
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY BRINGING A PERIOD OF
ENHANCED SNOWFALL RATES TO NORTH-CENTRAL MT TERMINALS FOLLOWED BY
A SHIFT TO GUSTY NORTH WINDS WHICH MAY CREATE SOME ADDITIONAL
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS IN BLOWING SNOW FOR A PERIOD SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. LOCALLY INTENSE (RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW) SHOWERS
ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG WINDS GUSTS MAY OCCUR WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE ACROSS SW MT TERMINALS BETWEEN 15Z AND 20Z SATURDAY.
HOENISCH
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 27 8 30 16 / 100 80 0 20
CTB 25 -2 26 12 / 90 20 0 10
HLN 32 12 35 24 / 100 80 10 40
BZN 48 13 35 21 / 80 70 10 40
WYS 43 5 30 15 / 70 40 10 40
DLN 47 17 37 26 / 70 40 0 10
HVR 30 5 26 10 / 100 50 0 0
LWT 26 4 26 10 / 100 80 20 10
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR BIG BELT,
BRIDGER AND CASTLE MOUNTAINS-CASCADE COUNTY BELOW 5000FT-EAST
GLACIER PARK REGION-EASTERN PONDERA AND EASTERN TETON-ELKHORN
AND BOULDER MOUNTAINS-FERGUS COUNTY BELOW 4500FT-GATES OF THE
MOUNTAINS-HELENA VALLEY-JUDITH BASIN COUNTY AND JUDITH GAP-
LITTLE BELT AND HIGHWOOD MOUNTAINS-MEAGHER COUNTY VALLEYS-
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS-NORTHWEST BEAVERHEAD COUNTY-SNOWY AND
JUDITH MOUNTAINS-SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS-SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN
FRONT-UPPER BLACKFOOT AND MACDONALD PASS.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR BEARS
PAW MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN BLAINE-EASTERN GLACIER, WESTERN
TOOLE, AND CENTRAL PONDERA-EASTERN TOOLE AND LIBERTY-HILL COUNTY-
NORTHERN BLAINE COUNTY-WESTERN AND CENTRAL CHOUTEAU COUNTY.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
BEAVERHEAD AND WESTERN MADISON BELOW 6000FT-BIG BELT, BRIDGER
AND CASTLE MOUNTAINS-CANYON FERRY AREA-ELKHORN AND BOULDER
MOUNTAINS-GALLATIN VALLEY-GALLATIN AND MADISON COUNTY MOUNTAINS
AND CENTENNIAL MOUNTAINS-MADISON RIVER VALLEY-MISSOURI
HEADWATERS-NORTHWEST BEAVERHEAD COUNTY-RUBY MOUNTAINS AND
SOUTHERN BEAVERHEAD MOUNTAINS.
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
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