229
FXUS65 KTFX 150315
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
915 PM MDT SAT MAR 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
- ON MONDAY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND IT WILL BEGIN TO WARM UP
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA.
- IT WILL BE WINDY AT TIMES TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING UP TO WELL-ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES TO END
THE WORK WEEK.
UPDATE
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER TODAY IN THE WAKE OF
PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND STRONG SURGE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS ARE DECREASING THIS EVENING. THE HIGH
WIND WARNING FOR SOUTHWEST MT HAS ENDED. BLIZZARD WARNINGS
CONTINUE FOR FERGUS AND JUDITH BASIN COUNTIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT,
WHERE 30-40 MPH GUSTS ARE STILL OCCURRING IN EXPOSED AREAS OVER A
SUBSTANTIAL FRESH SNOWPACK. CONDITIONS THERE SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. AN AREA OF LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SNOW NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
AND LITTLE BELT MOUNTAINS, AND THE WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN
EXTENDED THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MT. HOENISCH
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 517 PM MDT SAT MAR 14 2026/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
THIS AFTERNOON SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND
SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT THROUGH THE I-
15 CORRIDOR THERE WILL BE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. THIS AFTERNOON SNOW SHOWERS WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD. THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL PRIMARILY
AFFECT THE I-90 CORRIDOR BETWEEN THREE FORKS AND BOZEMAN. THESE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL END BY AROUND 6 PM. SOME OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
HEAVY. MOST OF THE SNOW IN NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA WILL END BY AROUND
6PM. ACROSS THE MONTANA HIGHWAY 200/US HIGHWAY 87 CORRIDOR AND THE
LITTLE BELTS SNOW WILL LINGER INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH MOST OF
THE HEAVY SNOW ENDING BY AROUND 6 PM. DUE TO THE COLD FRONT COMBINED
WITH SKIES BEGINNING TO CLEAR BY TOMORROW MORNING IT WILL BE COLD
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA TOMORROW. ON
SUNDAY AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE OVER NORTH-CENTRAL,
CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP SOME ACROSS THE AREA. SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE. THIS COMBINED WITH
THE STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL AND MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL BRING WINDY
CONDITIONS TO THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND PLAINS WEST OF I-15.
ON MONDAY THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL,
AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP
SOME MORE WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS. AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO SOME
OF THE MOUNTAINS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN
MONTANA. DUE TO THE INCREASING WINDS MONDAY MORNING THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING SNOW ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND
HIGHWAY 200/US HIGHWAY 87 CORRIDOR. ON TUESDAY THE UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE REMAINS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN
MONTANA. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP SOME MORE. ON
TUESDAY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AND THERE WILL BE STRONG
LOW-LEVEL AND MID-LEVEL WINDS. AS A RESULT ON TUESDAY IT WILL BE
WINDY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG
THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THE UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE REMAINS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN
MONTANA THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO WARM UP WITH
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER. ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS REMAIN STRONG OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
MONTANA. AS A RESULT ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IT WILL BE WINDY
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA. -IG
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
SUNDAY MORNING THERE IS A 40 - 80% CHANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES OF
ZERO DEGREES OR COLDER ACROSS MOST OF NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA. ON
MONDAY THERE IS GREATER THAN A 90% CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS OF 55 MPH
OR GREATER ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND PLAINS WEST OF I-15.
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER-ELEVATIONS OF CASCADE COUNTY AND JUDITH
BASIN COUNTY THERE IS A 30 - 60% CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS OF 55 MPH OR
GREATER. ON MONDAY THERE IS GREATER THAN AN 80% CHANCE FOR WIND
GUSTS OF 75 MPH OR GREATER ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT THERE IS GREATER THAN A
60% CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS OF 75 MPH OR GREATER. ON TUESDAY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REST OF NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA THERE IS A 40 - 80% FOR
WIND GUSTS OF 55 MPH OR GREATER. ON WEDNESDAY THERE IS GREATER THAN
A 50% CHANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES OF 70 DEGREES OR GREATER ACROSS
THE LOWER-ELEVATIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN
MONTANA. -IG
AVIATION
15/00Z TAF PERIOD
AT THE KEKS AND KBZN TERMINALS LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR FOR THE FIRST
FEW HOURS OF THIS TAF PERIOD AND THEN VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
AT THE KHLN AND KGTF TERMINAL IFR TO LIFR CONDITONS DUE TO SNOW WILL
PREVAIL FOR THE FIRST TWO HOURS OF THIS TAF PERIOD BEFORE GRADUALLY
IMPROVING TO VFR CONDITIONS BY 15/06Z. AT THE KCTB TERMINAL THERE
WILL BE A COUPLE HOURS OF BLOWING SNOW WHICH WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY
TO IFR CONDITIONS BUT THEN AS THE WINDS BEGIN TO DECREASE AFTER
15/02Z THE THREAT FOR BLOWING SNOW TO BE LOFTED ENOUGH TO REDUCE
VISIBILITY DIMINISHES. AT THE KHVR TERMINAL LIGHT SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO IFR CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST COUPLE
HOURS OF THIS TAF PERIOD WITH AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY 15/04Z. AT THE KLWT TERMINAL IT WILL SNOW THROUGH AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THIS TAF PERIOD. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL
OCCUR DURING THE FIRST 4 HOURS OF THIS TAF PERIOD WITH LIFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. BY 15/08Z CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO
MVFR-LEVELS. -IG
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 0 27 15 47 / 70 0 20 30
CTB -4 25 13 45 / 20 0 10 10
HLN 6 34 23 50 / 80 0 40 60
BZN 11 34 21 53 / 60 10 40 60
WYS 0 28 16 41 / 50 10 50 70
DLN 14 36 27 55 / 40 0 20 20
HVR 1 26 10 45 / 70 0 0 10
LWT 2 24 10 46 / 80 10 10 30
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR BIG BELT,
BRIDGER AND CASTLE MOUNTAINS-ELKHORN AND BOULDER MOUNTAINS-GATES
OF THE MOUNTAINS-HELENA VALLEY-LITTLE BELT AND HIGHWOOD
MOUNTAINS-MEAGHER COUNTY VALLEYS-UPPER BLACKFOOT AND MACDONALD
PASS.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR FERGUS COUNTY
BELOW 4500FT-JUDITH BASIN COUNTY AND JUDITH GAP-SNOWY AND JUDITH
MOUNTAINS.
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
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