718
FXUS65 KTFX 021123
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
523 AM MDT THU APR 2 2026
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN AND SNOW BECOME WIDESPREAD TODAY WITH A CHANGE TO SNOW AT
LOWER ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
- WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS PEAK TONIGHT AS GUSTY WEST WINDS DEVELOP
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW FREEZING BEFORE SNOW GRADUALLY
ENDS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
- DRIER CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- COOLER, POTENTIALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY RETURN FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 310 AM MDT THU APR 2 2026/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
A SPRING STORM SYSTEM IS ON TRACK TO AFFECT THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS A COLD/CLOSED MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ONSHORE IN
WA/OR EARLY THIS MORNING TRACKS ESE REACHING WY TONIGHT. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING IN THE
MOIST/DIFFLUENT FLOW AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. A MORE
ORGANIZED AREA OF PRECIPITATION, POTENTIALLY INCLUDING A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING
AS AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS THE
AREA AND COLDER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW
BEGINS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. PRECIPITATION IS MOST WIDESPREAD
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION
MOVES BY TO OUR SOUTH WITH MOISTURE PIVOTING AROUND IT AND FOCUSED
WITHIN A MID-LVEL TROWAL (TROUGH OF WARM AIR ALOFT). SNOW LEVELS
AROUND 6000-7000FT THIS MORNING RAPIDLY FALL TO 4000FT OR LESS
THIS AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST WITH PRIMARILY SNOW EXPECTED
ACROSS THE VALLEYS AND PLAINS BY THIS EVENING. SNOW GRADUALLY ENDS
FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT FOR NORTHERN AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT LINGERS INTO FRIDAY MORNING
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MT, WHERE MOIST
NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME ADDITIONAL MEASURABLE
SNOWFALL THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
A NW FLOW ALOFT FOLLOWS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
GRADUALLY BUILDS TO OUR WEST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS PROVIDES
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. ADDITIONAL WARMING IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER DEVELOPS FOR
MID-LATE NEXT WEEK, THOUGH THERE IS STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY
IN TIMING AND DETAILS WITH TROUGHING LATER NEXT WEEK. HOENISCH
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
SNOWFALL AMOUNT FORECASTS HAVE NOT SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGED AND OVERALL
WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS ARE ON TRACK. NEWER MODEL DATA DOES SUPPORT
SOMEWHAT HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS OVER
BOZEMAN PASS AND THE BRIDGER RANGE, AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS AND ICING OF ROAD SURFACES THIS EVENING
HAS RESULTED IN AN UPGRADE TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THAT ZONE.
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ALSO ADDED FOR THE GALLATIN VALLEY,
WHERE SNOWFALL AMOUNT FORECASTS RANGE FROM AROUND 1 INCH AT
BELGRADE TO AS HIGH AS 3-4 INCHES CLOSER TO THE BRIDGER/GALLATIN
RANGE, INCLUDING THE CITY OF BOZEMAN AND GALLATIN GATEWAY AREA.
THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW AND ASSOCIATED IMPACTS ACROSS LOWER ELEVATION
PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL MT, PARTICULARLY ACROSS CASCADE AND JUDITH
BASIN COUNTIES AND NORTH ALONG I-15. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A
NARROWER BAND OF ENHANCED PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BENEATH THE TROWAL. IN ADDITION, THE TIMING OF RAIN CHANGING
TO SNOW (EARLY TO LATE AFTERNOON) MAY VARY BASED ON PRECIPITATION
INTENSITY, AND EVEN AN EARLY TRANSITION TO SNOW MAY NOT BE IMPACTFUL
THIS AFTERNOON WITH AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S.
IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT WHILE PRECIPITATION/SNOWFALL RATES MAY
PEAK THIS AFTERNOON, WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING AS TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING. IN
ADDITION, GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CREATE ADDITIONAL
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
HOENISCH
AVIATION
02/12Z TAF PERIOD
SHOWERS INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
TRACKING INTO IDAHO. GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF BUT INTENSE
PRECIPITATION ARE ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE INITIAL SHOWERS FOLLOWED
BY A MORE WIDESPREAD DEGRADATION TO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. A CHANGE
FROM RAIN TO SNOW IS LIKELY AT MOST TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING, ALSO TRENDING FROM WEST TO EAST, WITH
ADDITIONAL REDUCTION OF VISIBILITY. HOENISCH
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 44 30 50 28 / 90 70 30 0
CTB 39 24 46 27 / 100 50 10 0
HLN 44 29 50 28 / 70 60 20 0
BZN 47 27 49 24 / 70 70 50 0
WYS 39 21 43 17 / 80 70 40 0
DLN 44 28 49 25 / 60 40 10 0
HVR 44 28 46 27 / 70 80 20 0
LWT 49 27 41 25 / 80 90 80 0
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR EAST GLACIER
PARK REGION-ELKHORN AND BOULDER MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST BEAVERHEAD
COUNTY-RUBY MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN BEAVERHEAD MOUNTAINS-SOUTHERN
ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT-UPPER BLACKFOOT AND MACDONALD PASS.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON MDT FRIDAY
FOR BIG BELT, BRIDGER AND CASTLE MOUNTAINS-GALLATIN AND MADISON
COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND CENTENNIAL MOUNTAINS-LITTLE BELT AND
HIGHWOOD MOUNTAINS.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON MDT
FRIDAY FOR CASCADE COUNTY BELOW 5000FT-FERGUS COUNTY BELOW
4500FT-GALLATIN VALLEY-JUDITH BASIN COUNTY AND JUDITH GAP-SNOWY
AND JUDITH MOUNTAINS.
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