464
FXUS65 KTFX 021757
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1157 AM MDT THU APR 2 2026
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN AND SNOW BECOME WIDESPREAD TODAY WITH A CHANGE TO SNOW AT
LOWER ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
- WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS PEAK TONIGHT AS GUSTY WEST WINDS DEVELOP
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW FREEZING BEFORE SNOW GRADUALLY
ENDS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
- DRIER CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- COOLER, POTENTIALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY RETURN FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
/ISSUED 905 AM MDT THU APR 2 2026/
MORNING UPDATE HAS BEEN PUBLISHED, WITH THE MAIN ADJUSTMENT BEING
TO LOWER TEMPERATURES OVER THE PLAINS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
MONTANA BY 3 TO 6 DEGREES, MOST NOTABLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE US
HWY 87 CORRIDOR FROM GREAT FALLS TO HAVRE. HERE LOW CLOUD COVER
AND INCREASING COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES EITHER
STEADY OR ALLOW THEM TO FALL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS. NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE NOON HOUR ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-15 CORRIDOR DUE
TO A STRENGTHENING BARRIER JET, WITH GUSTS OF BETWEEN 30 TO 40
MPH ACROSS THESE AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL THROUGH THE DAY FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTHWEST MONTANA, BUT
WITH ABOVE FREEZING GROUND TEMPERATURES ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO GRASSY SURFACES AT LOWER ELEVATIONS
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. WITH THAT BEING SAID BURSTS OF MODERATE
TO AT TIMES HEAVY SNOWFALL, WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF BETWEEN
0.25-0.5" PER HOUR, WILL BRIEFLY OVERCOME THE WARM GROUND AND LEAD
TO SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS ON ROADS. THE AREA OF GREATEST CONCERN
FOR THESE SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL BE
WEST OF THE I-15 CORRIDOR FROM GREAT FALLS TO THE CANADIAN
BORDER, ESPECIALLY ACROSS GLACIER COUNTY. - MOLDAN
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 905 AM MDT THU APR 2 2026/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
A SPRING STORM SYSTEM IS ON TRACK TO AFFECT THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS A COLD/CLOSED MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ONSHORE IN
WA/OR EARLY THIS MORNING TRACKS ESE REACHING WY TONIGHT. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING IN THE
MOIST/DIFFLUENT FLOW AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. A MORE
ORGANIZED AREA OF PRECIPITATION, POTENTIALLY INCLUDING A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING
AS AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS THE
AREA AND COLDER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW
BEGINS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. PRECIPITATION IS MOST WIDESPREAD
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION
MOVES BY TO OUR SOUTH WITH MOISTURE PIVOTING AROUND IT AND FOCUSED
WITHIN A MID-LVEL TROWAL (TROUGH OF WARM AIR ALOFT). SNOW LEVELS
AROUND 6000-7000FT THIS MORNING RAPIDLY FALL TO 4000FT OR LESS
THIS AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST WITH PRIMARILY SNOW EXPECTED
ACROSS THE VALLEYS AND PLAINS BY THIS EVENING. SNOW GRADUALLY ENDS
FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT FOR NORTHERN AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT LINGERS INTO FRIDAY MORNING
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MT, WHERE MOIST
NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME ADDITIONAL MEASURABLE
SNOWFALL THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
A NW FLOW ALOFT FOLLOWS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
GRADUALLY BUILDS TO OUR WEST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS PROVIDES
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. ADDITIONAL WARMING IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER DEVELOPS FOR
MID-LATE NEXT WEEK, THOUGH THERE IS STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY
IN TIMING AND DETAILS WITH TROUGHING LATER NEXT WEEK. HOENISCH
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
SNOWFALL AMOUNT FORECASTS HAVE NOT SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGED AND OVERALL
WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS ARE ON TRACK. NEWER MODEL DATA DOES SUPPORT
SOMEWHAT HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS OVER
BOZEMAN PASS AND THE BRIDGER RANGE, AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS AND ICING OF ROAD SURFACES THIS EVENING
HAS RESULTED IN AN UPGRADE TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THAT ZONE.
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ALSO ADDED FOR THE GALLATIN VALLEY,
WHERE SNOWFALL AMOUNT FORECASTS RANGE FROM AROUND 1 INCH AT
BELGRADE TO AS HIGH AS 3-4 INCHES CLOSER TO THE BRIDGER/GALLATIN
RANGE, INCLUDING THE CITY OF BOZEMAN AND GALLATIN GATEWAY AREA.
THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW AND ASSOCIATED IMPACTS ACROSS LOWER ELEVATION
PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL MT, PARTICULARLY ACROSS CASCADE AND JUDITH
BASIN COUNTIES AND NORTH ALONG I-15. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A
NARROWER BAND OF ENHANCED PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BENEATH THE TROWAL. IN ADDITION, THE TIMING OF RAIN CHANGING
TO SNOW (EARLY TO LATE AFTERNOON) MAY VARY BASED ON PRECIPITATION
INTENSITY, AND EVEN AN EARLY TRANSITION TO SNOW MAY NOT BE IMPACTFUL
THIS AFTERNOON WITH AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S.
IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT WHILE PRECIPITATION/SNOWFALL RATES MAY
PEAK THIS AFTERNOON, WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING AS TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING. IN
ADDITION, GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CREATE ADDITIONAL
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
HOENISCH
AVIATION
02/18Z TAF PERIOD
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS, ALONG WITH VERY LOW CEILINGS, WILL BRING
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS TO MOST NC AND SW MT TERMINALS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY TODAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE RAIN CHANGES OVER TO SNOW AS SNOW LEVELS
FALL TO THE SURFACE BY SUNSET. SNOW WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH
AROUND 6Z FOR MOST TERMINALS, THOUGH KGTF AND KBZN MAY SEE SNOW
LINGER INTO THE MORNING ON FRIDAY. LUDWIG
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 43 30 50 28 / 100 100 30 0
CTB 36 23 49 27 / 90 40 0 0
HLN 42 30 50 26 / 80 70 30 0
BZN 46 27 48 21 / 90 100 60 0
WYS 39 20 42 14 / 100 100 60 0
DLN 42 28 49 23 / 70 60 10 0
HVR 42 29 44 25 / 80 100 50 0
LWT 48 27 41 23 / 100 100 90 10
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR EAST GLACIER
PARK REGION-ELKHORN AND BOULDER MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST BEAVERHEAD
COUNTY-RUBY MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN BEAVERHEAD MOUNTAINS-SOUTHERN
ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT-UPPER BLACKFOOT AND MACDONALD PASS.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT FRIDAY FOR BIG BELT, BRIDGER
AND CASTLE MOUNTAINS-GALLATIN AND MADISON COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND
CENTENNIAL MOUNTAINS-LITTLE BELT AND HIGHWOOD MOUNTAINS.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON MDT
FRIDAY FOR CASCADE COUNTY BELOW 5000FT-FERGUS COUNTY BELOW
4500FT-GALLATIN VALLEY-JUDITH BASIN COUNTY AND JUDITH GAP-SNOWY
AND JUDITH MOUNTAINS.
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
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