805
FXUS65 KTFX 022004
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
204 PM MDT THU APR 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS PEAK TONIGHT AS GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
DEVELOP, TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING, AND PRECIPITATION
BECOMES ALL SNOW; WITH SNOW GRADUALLY ENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
- DRIER CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- COOLER, POTENTIALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY RETURN FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
LONGWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CLOSED LOW WILL SLIDE EAST OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT TO
OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY SUNRISE ON FRIDAY. AT
THE SURFACE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ACROSS
NORTHEAST WYOMING/SOUTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS,
WITH COLD (SUBFREEZING) AIR INITIALLY SPILLING SOUTH ALONG THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN FRONT TO THE I-15 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS BEFORE SLIDING FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MONTANA AS THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST FROM THE MT/WY BORDER.
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF SOUTHWEST THROUGH
NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND OVERNIGHT HOURS
TONIGHT, WITH PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ON FRIDAY. FALLING
SNOW LEVELS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WILL LEAD TO A TRANSITION
FROM RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO SNOW THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
ACROSS ALL LOCATIONS, BUT WITH MARGINAL SURFACE TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THIS TIMEFRAME MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS
ON ROAD SURFACES. AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL AND SOLAR
INSOLATION IS LOST THIS EVENING LOWER ELEVATIONS, ESPECIALLY THE THE
MONTANA HWY 200/US HWY 87 CORRIDOR ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA AND THE
GALLATIN VALLEY IN SOUTHWEST MONTANA WILL BEGIN TO SEE ACCUMULATION
ON ROAD SURFACES. THESE ACCUMULATIONS ON ROAD SURFACES WILL VARY
SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THAT OF GRASSY SURFACES BY FRIDAY DUE TO MELTING
FROM THE SOMEWHAT WARM PAVEMENT SURFACE, BUT IMPACTS WILL STILL BE
REALIZED DUE AS ICY CONDITIONS DEVELOP BENEATH ANY LAYER OF SNOW.
AS COLD AIR BEGINS TO SPILL SOUTH AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY, WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS OF BETWEEN 30 TO 45 MPH. THESE GUSTY WINDS COMBINED WITH THE
FALLING SNOW WILL LEAD TO REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY, ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL. ADDITIONALLY, GIVEN THE HEAVY, WET NATURE
OF THE SNOW COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WINDS A FEW POWER OUTAGES CAN'T
BE RULED OUT DUE TO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON POWER LINES. - MOLDAN
A NW FLOW ALOFT FOLLOWS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
GRADUALLY BUILDS TO OUR WEST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS PROVIDES
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. ADDITIONAL WARMING IS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
DEVELOPS FOR MID-LATE NEXT WEEK, THOUGH THERE IS STILL A GOOD DEAL
OF UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND DETAILS WITH TROUGHING LATER NEXT WEEK.
HOENISCH
AVIATION
02/18Z TAF PERIOD
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS, ALONG WITH VERY LOW CEILINGS, WILL BRING
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS TO MOST NC AND SW MT TERMINALS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY TODAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE RAIN CHANGES OVER TO SNOW AS SNOW LEVELS
FALL TO THE SURFACE BY SUNSET. SNOW WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH
AROUND 6Z FOR MOST TERMINALS, THOUGH KGTF AND KBZN MAY SEE SNOW
LINGER INTO THE MORNING ON FRIDAY. LUDWIG
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 30 50 28 58 / 100 30 0 0
CTB 23 49 27 55 / 40 0 0 0
HLN 30 50 26 59 / 70 30 0 0
BZN 27 48 21 57 / 100 60 0 0
WYS 20 42 14 49 / 100 60 0 0
DLN 28 49 23 58 / 60 10 0 0
HVR 29 44 25 56 / 100 50 0 0
LWT 27 41 23 52 / 100 90 10 0
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR EAST GLACIER
PARK REGION-ELKHORN AND BOULDER MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST BEAVERHEAD
COUNTY-RUBY MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN BEAVERHEAD MOUNTAINS-SOUTHERN
ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT-UPPER BLACKFOOT AND MACDONALD PASS.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT FRIDAY FOR BIG BELT, BRIDGER
AND CASTLE MOUNTAINS-GALLATIN AND MADISON COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND
CENTENNIAL MOUNTAINS-LITTLE BELT AND HIGHWOOD MOUNTAINS.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT FRIDAY FOR CASCADE COUNTY
BELOW 5000FT-FERGUS COUNTY BELOW 4500FT-GALLATIN VALLEY-JUDITH
BASIN COUNTY AND JUDITH GAP-SNOWY AND JUDITH MOUNTAINS.
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page