891
FXUS65 KTFX 030200
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
800 PM MDT THU APR 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW, HEAVY AT TIMES, CONTINUES OVERNIGHT.
- DRIER CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- COOLER, POTENTIALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY RETURN FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
8 PM UPDATE...OVERALL CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. POPS WERE
UPDATED TOWARDS CURRENT TRENDS. NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME TO ANY OF
THE CURRENT WINTER STATEMENTS. OVERALL, SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON
PAVEMENT SURFACES ARE ON THE LOW SIDE WITH DAY TIME MELTING.
SNOWFALL HAS BEEN MINIMAL IN JUDITH BASIN AND FERGUS COUNTIES SO
FAR, BUT AS THIS UPPER LEVEL PULLS EAST OVERNIGHT, SNOW SHOULD
FILL IN OVER THIS AREA. SNOWFALL, HEAVY AT TIMES CONTINUES AROUND
BOZEMAN AND GREAT FALLS, BUT INTENSITY SHOULD START TO DECREASE
AFTER 11 PM. NOW THAT WE ARE PAST SUNSET, ROADWAYS WILL BECOME
SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY, RESULTING IN A FEW MORE TRAVEL IMPACTS
OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK ON TRACK, NO CHANGES. BRUSDA
5 PM UPDATE...THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MONTANA AS OF LATE THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH HAS RESULTED IN
SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY BURSTS OF SNOW. AREAS AROUND DILLON TO TWIN
BRIDGES HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A FEW INCHES OF SNOW. THIS AREA WAS
ADDED TO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT. HEAVIER BURSTS OF SNOW AND PERHAPS SOME ISOLATED THUNDER
WILL CONTINUE FURTHER EAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST MONTANA AS THE UPPER
LOW CONTINUES SHIFTING EASTWARD THIS EVENING. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE MONITORED FOR ANY ADDITIONAL CHANGES IN THINKING.
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 459 PM MDT THU APR 2 2026/
LONGWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CLOSED LOW WILL SLIDE EAST OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT TO
OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY SUNRISE ON FRIDAY. AT
THE SURFACE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ACROSS
NORTHEAST WYOMING/SOUTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS,
WITH COLD (SUBFREEZING) AIR INITIALLY SPILLING SOUTH ALONG THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN FRONT TO THE I-15 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS BEFORE SLIDING FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MONTANA AS THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST FROM THE MT/WY BORDER.
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF SOUTHWEST THROUGH
NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND OVERNIGHT HOURS
TONIGHT, WITH PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ON FRIDAY. FALLING
SNOW LEVELS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WILL LEAD TO A TRANSITION
FROM RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO SNOW THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
ACROSS ALL LOCATIONS, BUT WITH MARGINAL SURFACE TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THIS TIMEFRAME MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS
ON ROAD SURFACES. AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL AND SOLAR
INSOLATION IS LOST THIS EVENING LOWER ELEVATIONS, ESPECIALLY THE THE
MONTANA HWY 200/US HWY 87 CORRIDOR ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA AND THE
GALLATIN VALLEY IN SOUTHWEST MONTANA WILL BEGIN TO SEE ACCUMULATION
ON ROAD SURFACES. THESE ACCUMULATIONS ON ROAD SURFACES WILL VARY
SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THAT OF GRASSY SURFACES BY FRIDAY DUE TO MELTING
FROM THE SOMEWHAT WARM PAVEMENT SURFACE, BUT IMPACTS WILL STILL BE
REALIZED DUE AS ICY CONDITIONS DEVELOP BENEATH ANY LAYER OF SNOW.
AS COLD AIR BEGINS TO SPILL SOUTH AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY, WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS OF BETWEEN 30 TO 45 MPH. THESE GUSTY WINDS COMBINED WITH THE
FALLING SNOW WILL LEAD TO REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY, ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL. ADDITIONALLY, GIVEN THE HEAVY, WET NATURE
OF THE SNOW COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WINDS A FEW POWER OUTAGES CAN'T
BE RULED OUT DUE TO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON POWER LINES. - MOLDAN
A NW FLOW ALOFT FOLLOWS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
GRADUALLY BUILDS TO OUR WEST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS PROVIDES
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. ADDITIONAL WARMING IS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
DEVELOPS FOR MID-LATE NEXT WEEK, THOUGH THERE IS STILL A GOOD DEAL
OF UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND DETAILS WITH TROUGHING LATER NEXT WEEK.
HOENISCH
AVIATION
03/00Z TAF PERIOD
ANY REMAINING AREAS OF RAIN TRANSITION TO SNOW THIS EVENING AND
PERSIST IN NORTHERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY UPSLOPE AREAS THROUGH THE
MORNING FRIDAY. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY, DIMINISHING AFTER SNOW WINDS DOWN. -AM
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 30 50 28 58 / 100 30 0 0
CTB 23 49 27 55 / 90 0 0 0
HLN 30 50 26 59 / 80 30 0 0
BZN 27 48 21 57 / 100 60 0 0
WYS 20 42 14 49 / 90 60 0 0
DLN 28 49 23 58 / 100 10 0 0
HVR 29 44 25 56 / 100 50 0 0
LWT 27 41 23 52 / 100 90 10 0
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR BEAVERHEAD AND
WESTERN MADISON BELOW 6000FT-EAST GLACIER PARK REGION-ELKHORN
AND BOULDER MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST BEAVERHEAD COUNTY-RUBY MOUNTAINS
AND SOUTHERN BEAVERHEAD MOUNTAINS-SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT-
UPPER BLACKFOOT AND MACDONALD PASS.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT FRIDAY FOR BIG BELT, BRIDGER
AND CASTLE MOUNTAINS-GALLATIN AND MADISON COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND
CENTENNIAL MOUNTAINS-LITTLE BELT AND HIGHWOOD MOUNTAINS.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT FRIDAY FOR CASCADE COUNTY
BELOW 5000FT-FERGUS COUNTY BELOW 4500FT-GALLATIN VALLEY-JUDITH
BASIN COUNTY AND JUDITH GAP-SNOWY AND JUDITH MOUNTAINS.
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
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