992
FXUS65 KTFX 031104
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
504 AM MDT FRI APR 3 2026
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW DWINDLES THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
- WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- TUESDAY IS TRENDING TO BE A WINDIER DAY AHEAD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER TOWARD THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1146 PM MDT THU APR 2 2026/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR WINTER WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION IS EXITING EASTWARD, PRESENTLY ACROSS WYOMING.
SNOW LINGERS THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY
IN NORTHERLY/NORTHWESTERLY UPSLOPE FAVORED AREAS. IF TRAVELING THIS
MORNING, BE PREPARED FOR WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS LOOK TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, BUT APPEAR TO BE SHORT
LIVED.
THEREAFTER UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SLOWLY BUILDS IN FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND, BRINGING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM THEN LOOKS TO BREAK
DOWN THE RIDGE ON TUESDAY, INITIALLY BRINGING GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
TO THE PLAINS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING HANGS AROUND IN SOME CAPACITY FROM THE MIDDLE
TO LATE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK, WHICH WILL AT THE VERY LEAST COOL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. UNCERTAINTY BUILDS WITH RESPECT TO
HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION RESULTS FROM THIS STRETCH OF TROUGHING.
-AM
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
LINGERING SNOW THIS MORNING:
LINGERING SNOW WITHIN A NORTHWESTERLY REGIME WILL IMPACT SEVERAL
AREAS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS THROUGH THE MORNING, PARTICULARLY THE
BOZEMAN AREA, LEWISTOWN, AND THE AREA BETWEEN BELT AND GEYSER. THE
HEAVY, WET NATURE OF THE SNOW WILL POSE IMPACTS TO INFRASTRUCTURE,
INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR A FEW POWER OUTAGES BEFORE SNOW DWINDLES
LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. THOSE TRAVELING IN THESE
AREAS, OR OVER MOST PASSES TODAY SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR WINTER
DRIVING CONDITIONS.
WINDS ON TUESDAY:
THE EUROPEAN EXTREME FORECAST INDEX CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT TUESDAY
AS A DAY FOR GUSTY WINDS, MOSTLY ACROSS THE PLAINS AND ADJACENT
AREAS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS OVER THIS TIMEFRAME DO NOT SHOW MUCH
RIDGETOP STABILITY, WHICH WILL MAKE THIS A PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
DIURNALLY DRIVEN MIXING TYPE OF EVENT. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH IT HOWEVER, AS COOLER AIR SINKING
SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR TUESDAY EVENING
WOULD SHUT DOWN THE WINDS RATHER QUICKLY. SHOULD THIS FRONT ARRIVE
A BIT QUICKER THE THREAT FOR STRONGER WINDS TUESDAY WOULD BE
SHORTER IN DURATION AND MORE LOCALIZED.
UNSETTLED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:
CLUSTER GUIDANCE FAVORS TROUGHING ACROSS THE REGION OVER THIS
TIMEFRAME, BUT STRUGGLES MIGHTILY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND STRENGTH
OF THE TROUGHING. THIS RESULTS IN A LOWER CONFIDENCE FROM A
PRECIPITATION PERSPECTIVE. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER WITH RESPECT TO
COOLING TEMPERATURES HOWEVER. THE MAIN TAKEAWAY OVER THIS TIMEFRAME
WILL BE FOR OVERALL COOLER AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AT TIMES. -AM
AVIATION
03/12Z TAF PERIOD
AREAS OF SNOW, PATCHY FOG, AND IFR/LIFR STRATUS WILL SLOWLY
IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH 03/16Z. WHILE MOST LOCATIONS
WILL TREND TOWARDS VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 16Z, KHVR AND KLWT WILL
CONTINUE TO OBSERVE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. EXPECT MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION TO PERSIST THROUGH 04/00Z,
PARTICULARLY FOR CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL LOCATIONS EAST OF I15.
- RCG
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 46 28 57 29 / 60 0 0 0
CTB 50 27 53 27 / 0 0 0 0
HLN 51 29 58 30 / 70 0 0 0
BZN 49 24 58 27 / 80 0 0 0
WYS 43 18 50 19 / 40 0 0 0
DLN 51 26 60 29 / 10 0 0 0
HVR 47 27 56 29 / 30 0 0 0
LWT 42 25 52 28 / 80 10 0 0
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR CASCADE COUNTY
BELOW 5000FT-FERGUS COUNTY BELOW 4500FT-GALLATIN VALLEY-GATES OF
THE MOUNTAINS-HELENA VALLEY-JUDITH BASIN COUNTY AND JUDITH GAP-
SNOWY AND JUDITH MOUNTAINS.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR BIG BELT, BRIDGER
AND CASTLE MOUNTAINS-GALLATIN AND MADISON COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND
CENTENNIAL MOUNTAINS-LITTLE BELT AND HIGHWOOD MOUNTAINS.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ELKHORN AND BOULDER MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST BEAVERHEAD COUNTY-RUBY
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN BEAVERHEAD MOUNTAINS-UPPER BLACKFOOT AND
MACDONALD PASS.
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
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