203
FXUS65 KTFX 031747
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1147 AM MDT FRI APR 3 2026
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW DWINDLES THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
- WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- TUESDAY IS TRENDING TO BE A WINDIER DAY AHEAD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER TOWARD THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
UPDATE
/ISSUED 1109 AM MDT FRI APR 3 2026/
11:08 AM - ALL REMAINING WINTER STORM WARNING OR WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY'S HAVE BEEN CANCELLED ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL
MONTANA AS THE MOST IMPACTFUL SNOW HAS ENDED.
8:46 AM - THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO DIURNAL TRENDS. IN ALL LIKELIHOOD THE
REMAINING WINTER STORM WARNING OR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY'S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MONTANA WILL BE CANCELLED PRIOR
TO THEIR NOON MDT EXPIRATION AS IMPACTS WILL BE DECREASING DUE TO
INCREASING SOLAR INSOLATION AND DECREASING SNOWFALL RATES, BUT
FOR NOW WE WILL RETAIN THE REMAINING HIGHLIGHTS FOR ANOTHER 1-2HRS
AS PRECIPITATION IS STILL ON-GOING AND WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS
EXIST ACROSS THESE AREAS. - MOLDAN
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1109 AM MDT FRI APR 3 2026/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR WINTER WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION IS EXITING EASTWARD, PRESENTLY ACROSS WYOMING.
SNOW LINGERS THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY
IN NORTHERLY/NORTHWESTERLY UPSLOPE FAVORED AREAS. IF TRAVELING THIS
MORNING, BE PREPARED FOR WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS LOOK TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, BUT APPEAR TO BE SHORT
LIVED.
THEREAFTER UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SLOWLY BUILDS IN FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND, BRINGING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM THEN LOOKS TO BREAK
DOWN THE RIDGE ON TUESDAY, INITIALLY BRINGING GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
TO THE PLAINS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING HANGS AROUND IN SOME CAPACITY FROM THE MIDDLE
TO LATE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK, WHICH WILL AT THE VERY LEAST COOL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. UNCERTAINTY BUILDS WITH RESPECT TO
HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION RESULTS FROM THIS STRETCH OF TROUGHING.
-AM
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
LINGERING SNOW THIS MORNING:
LINGERING SNOW WITHIN A NORTHWESTERLY REGIME WILL IMPACT SEVERAL
AREAS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS THROUGH THE MORNING, PARTICULARLY THE
BOZEMAN AREA, LEWISTOWN, AND THE AREA BETWEEN BELT AND GEYSER. THE
HEAVY, WET NATURE OF THE SNOW WILL POSE IMPACTS TO INFRASTRUCTURE,
INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR A FEW POWER OUTAGES BEFORE SNOW DWINDLES
LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. THOSE TRAVELING IN THESE
AREAS, OR OVER MOST PASSES TODAY SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR WINTER
DRIVING CONDITIONS.
WINDS ON TUESDAY:
THE EUROPEAN EXTREME FORECAST INDEX CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT TUESDAY
AS A DAY FOR GUSTY WINDS, MOSTLY ACROSS THE PLAINS AND ADJACENT
AREAS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS OVER THIS TIMEFRAME DO NOT SHOW MUCH
RIDGETOP STABILITY, WHICH WILL MAKE THIS A PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
DIURNALLY DRIVEN MIXING TYPE OF EVENT. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH IT HOWEVER, AS COOLER AIR SINKING
SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR TUESDAY EVENING
WOULD SHUT DOWN THE WINDS RATHER QUICKLY. SHOULD THIS FRONT ARRIVE
A BIT QUICKER THE THREAT FOR STRONGER WINDS TUESDAY WOULD BE
SHORTER IN DURATION AND MORE LOCALIZED.
UNSETTLED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:
CLUSTER GUIDANCE FAVORS TROUGHING ACROSS THE REGION OVER THIS
TIMEFRAME, BUT STRUGGLES MIGHTILY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND STRENGTH
OF THE TROUGHING. THIS RESULTS IN A LOWER CONFIDENCE FROM A
PRECIPITATION PERSPECTIVE. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER WITH RESPECT TO
COOLING TEMPERATURES HOWEVER. THE MAIN TAKEAWAY OVER THIS TIMEFRAME
WILL BE FOR OVERALL COOLER AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AT TIMES. -AM
AVIATION
03/18Z TAF PERIOD
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL BUT THE KHVR AND KLWT TERMINALS.
AT THE KLWT TERMINAL SNOW WILL LINGER FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
WITH IFR LEVEL CEILINGS. AT THE KHVR AND KLWT TERMINALS LOW CLOUDS
WILL MOVE OUT OF THOSE AREAS BY 04/00Z. AROUND THE KCTB TERMINAL
OVER TO THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT FROM 04/06Z THROUGH THE END OF THIS
TAF PERIOD THERE WILL BE ISOLATED INSTANCES OF LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR.
DURING THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THIS TAF PERIOD THERE WILL MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND
SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. AT ANY TAF SITE WHERE SNOW FELL
YESTERDAY/LAST NIGHT AND CLEARS OUT OVER NIGHT, FOG HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO FORM. THE MOST LIKELY TAF SITES FOR FOG TO FORM ARE
THE KBZN, KLWT, AND KHVR TERMINALS WITH A 10 - 30% CHANCE FOR FOG
TO FORM AT ANY OF THOSE TAF SITES. -IG
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 48 27 57 28 / 30 10 10 10
CTB 49 27 55 26 / 10 10 10 20
HLN 49 24 58 27 / 40 10 0 10
BZN 46 19 58 24 / 70 10 10 10
WYS 41 13 48 17 / 60 10 10 0
DLN 49 21 57 26 / 10 10 0 0
HVR 44 24 57 29 / 40 10 10 10
LWT 41 23 51 28 / 70 20 10 10
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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