131
FXUS65 KTFX 050928
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
328 AM MDT SUN APR 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SOUTHWEST MONTANA REMAINS MILD FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
WHILE CLOUDIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER THE PLAINS.
- A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MORE
WIDESPREAD STRONG WINDS ON TUESDAY.
- LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW AND LOWER ELEVATION RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
- ANOTHER TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE IN DURING THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEKEND FOR ANOTHER COOL DOWN AND INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY.
DISCUSSION
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE A 1040 MB SURFACE HIGH MOVES
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS
WILL BRING A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS FOR CLOUDIER
AND COOLER CONDITIONS, PARTICULARLY FOR CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL
MT. THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG AND SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION,
THOUGH EASTERLY BREEZES SHOULD REDUCE FOG IMPACTS SOME AND
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE NEGLIGIBLE AND MOSTLY
CONCENTRATED ALONG THE HI-LINE.
ON TUESDAY, A COMPACT PACIFIC TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AN H700/H500 60 TO 80 KT JET, SUPPORTED BY COLD AIR
ADVECTION, LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH DURING LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS WHEN DIURNAL MIXING IS NEAR ITS PEAK. THERE WILL ALSO BE
MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY THAT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LOCALIZED STRONGER
GUSTS NEAR AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE FACTORS WILL MAKE THIS
WINDS MORE IMPACTFUL THAN A TYPICAL EVENT. THE MOST PERSISTENT
STRONG WINDS LOOK TO OCCUR ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND THE
PLAINS ALONG AND WEST OF THE I15 CORRIDOR WHERE MAX GUSTS IN THE
75 TO 90 MPH RANGE WILL BE COMMON. MOST OF THE WINDS WILL OCCUR IN
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FERGUS COUNTY AND AREAS
NEAR THE BEAR'S PAW MOUNTAINS. THESE LOCATIONS WILL SEE THEIR
STRONGEST WINDS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING WELL INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW AND LOWER ELEVATION SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH A
SHORT PERIOD OF BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOLLOWING THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. MILDER CONDITIONS MOVE IN FOR NEXT WEEKEND BEFORE
ANOTHER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED
SHOWER ACTIVITY, CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN REGARDS TO PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS DUE TO A LARGE PORTION OF THE SAID TROUGH
SHEARING OFF AND MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT BASIN AND
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. - RCG
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
STRONG WINDS ON TUESDAY...
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR A COMPACT MID- LEVEL LOW TO
BRING A PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. ANY
SHIFTS IN TIMING OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WOULD RESULT IN THE
STRONGEST WINDS BEING MORE LOCALIZED. WHILE THERE CERTAINLY HAVE
BEEN FASTER JETSTREAMS THAN THE 60 TO 70 KTS THIS TIME AROUND, A
MID- DAY OR AFTERNOON PASSAGE GREATLY INCREASES MOMENTUM TRANSFER
FROM HIGHER LEVELS COMPARED TO AN OVERNIGHT OR EARLY MORNING
PASSAGE. CURRENTLY, THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR HIGHER END 70 TO 90
MPH WIND GUSTS ARE MOSTLY ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND THE
PLAINS WEST OF I90. WINDS DECREASE SOME AND BECOME MORE SPORADIC
HEADING EAST AND SOUTHEAST.
IMPACTS WILL INCLUDE DIFFICULT TO DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS FOR
HIGH PROFILE OR LIGHT WEIGHT VEHICLES, LOCALIZED VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS FROM BLOWING DUST, AND INSTANCES OF INFRASTRUCTURE/TREE
DAMAGE. ADDITIONALLY, A BRIEF PERIOD OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP FOR CENTRAL/SOUTHWESTERN AREAS ROUGHLY
SOUTH OF THE US HIGHWAY 12 CORRIDOR. THE HIGH WIND WATCH WAS
EXPANDED TO INCLUDE MUCH OF CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL MT AND PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHWEST. I DID LEAVE OUT THE HELENA AND BOZEMAN AREAS FOR
NOW DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN CRITERIA GUSTS LASTING MORE THAN AN
HOUR OR TWO. MOST OF THE WATCHES START TUESDAY MORNING AND IN THE
EVENING. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS FOR FERGUS COUNTY AND THE
BERAR'S PAW ZONES. THESE AREAS WILL SEE THEIR PEAK WINDS STARTING
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WEDNESDAY MAY EVEN BE WINDY FOR THESE EASTERN AREAS, BUT HELD OFF
EXTENDING THE HIGH WIND WATCH BEYOND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- RCG
AVIATION
05/06Z TAF PERIOD
INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE FOR A WIND SHIFT TO A MORE NORTHERLY
DIRECTION OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT. SOME LOW CLOUDS LOOK TO ACCOMPANY THIS WIND SHIFT, THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THESE LOW CLOUDS MAKE IT
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. A FEW SHOWERS LOOK TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HI-
LINE SUNDAY, THOUGH ARE LOW PROBABILITY TO OCCUR AT ANY GIVEN
LOCATION. -AM
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 49 30 57 41 / 10 10 0 0
CTB 41 26 53 35 / 30 10 0 0
HLN 60 34 62 40 / 0 0 10 0
BZN 63 32 62 36 / 0 0 10 0
WYS 56 24 59 27 / 0 0 0 0
DLN 64 34 66 37 / 0 0 0 0
HVR 44 28 51 32 / 20 10 0 0
LWT 50 28 49 34 / 20 20 10 0
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
EAST GLACIER PARK REGION-EASTERN GLACIER, WESTERN TOOLE, AND
CENTRAL PONDERA-NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS-SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS-
SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
BEAVERHEAD AND WESTERN MADISON BELOW 6000FT-BIG BELT, BRIDGER
AND CASTLE MOUNTAINS-CASCADE COUNTY BELOW 5000FT-EASTERN PONDERA
AND EASTERN TETON-EASTERN TOOLE AND LIBERTY-JUDITH BASIN COUNTY
AND JUDITH GAP-LITTLE BELT AND HIGHWOOD MOUNTAINS-MADISON RIVER
VALLEY-NORTHWEST BEAVERHEAD COUNTY-UPPER BLACKFOOT AND MACDONALD
PASS-WESTERN AND CENTRAL CHOUTEAU COUNTY.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR BEARS PAW MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN BLAINE-FERGUS COUNTY
BELOW 4500FT-SNOWY AND JUDITH MOUNTAINS.
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