774
FXUS65 KTFX 060913
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
313 AM MDT MON APR 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THE POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD STRONG TO INTENSE WIND
EVENT CONTINUES TO GROW FOR THE DAY ON TUESDAY, WITH THE MOST
INTENSE WINDS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG AND WEST OF THE
I-15 CORRIDOR.
- LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW AND LOWER ELEVATION RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEHIND A COLD
FRONT.
- ANOTHER TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE IN DURING THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND
FOR ANOTHER COOL DOWN, INCREASED MOUNTAIN SNOW, AND LOWER
ELEVATION SHOWER ACTIVITY.
DISCUSSION
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW, ASSOCIATED WITH A 1040 MB SURFACE HIGH
OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES, WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL FOR NORTHERN AREAS AND
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE SOUTH. ASIDE FROM A SPOTTY SHOWER
OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MT THIS AFTERNOON, MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
ON TUESDAY, A COMPACT PACIFIC TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
STILL LOOKS TO BRING A PERIOD OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. AN H700/H500 55 TO 75 KT JET, SUPPORTED BY COLD
AIR ADVECTION STILL LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH DURING LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN DIURNAL MIXING IS NEAR ITS PEAK. THERE WILL
ALSO BE MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY THAT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LOCALIZED
STRONGER GUSTS NEAR AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN. ADDITIONALLY, WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTIVE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PLAY A ROLE IN
TRANSFERRING STRONGER GUSTS TO SURFACE.
DESPITE LOWER AND MID- LEVEL WINDS TRENDING A BIT LOWER PER NEWER
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE, THESE FACTORS STILL LOOK TO EXERT A
GREATER IMPACT THAN A TYPICAL EVENT. THE MOST PERSISTENT STRONG
WINDS LOOKING TO OCCUR ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND THE
PLAINS ALONG AND WEST OF THE I15 CORRIDOR HAVEN'T CHANGED MUCH
WITH MAX GUSTS TOPPING OUT IN THE 75 TO 90 MPH RANGE. MOST OF THE
WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
FERGUS COUNTY AND AREAS NEAR THE BEAR'S PAW MOUNTAINS. THESE
LOCATIONS WILL SEE THEIR STRONGEST WINDS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUING WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND EVEN INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW AND LOWER ELEVATION SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO DIP BELOW AVERAGE FOR
A DAY OR SO FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BEFORE MILDER
CONDITIONS MOVE IN HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER TROUGH
APPROACHES THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND BRINGS MORE WIDESPREAD
MOUNTAIN SNOW AND LOWER ELEVATION SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THE SUNDAY
THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY TIMEFRAME. - RCG
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
STRONG TO INTENSE WINDS ON TUESDAY...
DESPITE SOME DETERMINISTIC MODELS RECENTLY TRENDING A BIT LOWER
WITH LOWER AND MID- LEVEL WINDS, SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
COMPLIMENTED BY DEEP LAYER MIXING THANKS TO THE HIGHER APRIL SUN
ANGLE IN ADDITION TO THE STRONGER WINDS PHASING WELL WITH PEAK
DIURNAL MIXING. CLIMATOLOGICAL ANOMALY INDICES CONTINUE TO LATCH
ON THIS EVENT BEING UNUSUALLY STRONG, ESPECIALLY FOR THE BEGINNING
OF APRIL. ECMWF EFIS WITH RESPECT TO WIND GUSTS CONTINUE TO BOAST
AN IMPRESSIVE 0.8 TO 0.99 ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTH-
CENTRAL MT, WITH EVEN A SHIFT OF TAILS (SOTS) OF 1 NOW BEING
OBSERVED ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL MONTANA. WHILE A SOT OF 1
APPEARING IS NOT IN ITSELF IMPRESSIVE IT IS WORTH MENTIONING GIVEN
THE RUN-TO-RUN TENDENCY OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS FOR VALUES TO
INCREASE. ADDITIONALLY, EFIS WITH RESPECT TO SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
NOW RANGE FROM 0.6 TO 0.9 ACROSS MUCH OF THE SAME AREAS.
CONFIDENCE FOR THE MOST PERSISTENT HIGHER END 70 TO 90 MPH WIND
GUSTS ARE STILL MOSTLY ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND THE
PLAINS ALONG AND WEST OF I15. OTHER AREAS MAY ALSO INSTANCES OF
GUSTS TO 75 MPH, JUST NOT QUITE AS WIDESPREAD OR FREQUENT. IMPACTS
WILL INCLUDE DIFFICULT TO DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS FOR HIGH
PROFILE OR LIGHT WEIGHT VEHICLES, LOCALIZED VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS
FROM BLOWING DUST, AND INSTANCES OF INFRASTRUCTURE/TREE DAMAGE.
THE HIGHEST CONCERN FOR SEMI ROLL OVERS WILL BE ALONG I15 FROM
SHELBY TO THE CANADIAN BORDER AND THE HIGHWAY 89 CORRIDOR ROUGHLY
FROM FAIRFIELD TO THE CANADIAN BORDER. FARTHER SOUTH, A PERIOD OF
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP FOR
CENTRAL/SOUTHWESTERN AREAS ROUGHLY SOUTH OF THE US HIGHWAY 12
CORRIDOR. THE TIMING OF THE GREATEST IMPACTS STILL LOOK TO BE IN
THE LATE MORNING HOURS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN FRONT AND THE PLAINS WEST OF I15 WHILE AREAS TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST SEE MORE IMPACTFUL CONDITIONS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON OR
EVEN TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE CASE OF FERGUS AND THE
BEAR'S PAW ZONES.
MOST OF THE HIGH WIND WATCHES WERE UPGRADED TO HIGH WIND
WARNINGS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WAS CONTINUING THE WATCH FOR
FERGUS AND THE BEAR'S PAW ZONES. THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR
THESE ZONES GIVEN THE PEAK WINDS OCCURRING DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS
TUESDAY NIGHT. I DID EXTEND THE END TIME OF THIS WATCH TO NOON ON
WEDNESDAY TO COVER LINGERING WINDY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE TREND OF LEAVING THE BOZEMAN AREA AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
MADISON AND GALLATIN COUNTIES WITH NO WIND PRODUCTS CONTINUED WITH
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. STRONGER WINDS IN THESE AREAS WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON MOMENTUM TRANSFER FROM CONVECTIVE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND
THE COLD FRONT ITSELF. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR
INCREASING TRENDS IN REGARDS TO WIND SPEEDS AND OR DURATION. - RCG
AVIATION
06/06Z TAF PERIOD
THE INITIAL CONCERN THIS TAF PERIOD WILL BE FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA THROUGH THE MORNING MONDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL OTHERWISE UNDER MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS.
-AM
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 57 41 63 27 / 0 10 10 30
CTB 54 36 55 22 / 0 0 40 30
HLN 63 40 64 29 / 10 10 10 10
BZN 62 35 67 27 / 10 10 20 20
WYS 59 26 58 24 / 10 10 30 20
DLN 65 37 65 27 / 10 0 0 0
HVR 52 31 63 27 / 0 10 20 30
LWT 50 34 65 25 / 10 10 30 30
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR EAST GLACIER
PARK REGION-EASTERN GLACIER, WESTERN TOOLE, AND CENTRAL PONDERA-
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS-SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS-SOUTHERN ROCKY
MOUNTAIN FRONT.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR BEAVERHEAD
AND WESTERN MADISON BELOW 6000FT-BIG BELT, BRIDGER AND CASTLE
MOUNTAINS-CASCADE COUNTY BELOW 5000FT-EASTERN PONDERA AND
EASTERN TETON-EASTERN TOOLE AND LIBERTY-ELKHORN AND BOULDER
MOUNTAINS-GATES OF THE MOUNTAINS-HELENA VALLEY-JUDITH BASIN
COUNTY AND JUDITH GAP-LITTLE BELT AND HIGHWOOD MOUNTAINS-MADISON
RIVER VALLEY-MEAGHER COUNTY VALLEYS-NORTHWEST BEAVERHEAD COUNTY-
UPPER BLACKFOOT AND MACDONALD PASS-WESTERN AND CENTRAL CHOUTEAU
COUNTY.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR BEARS PAW MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN BLAINE-FERGUS COUNTY BELOW
4500FT-SNOWY AND JUDITH MOUNTAINS.
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page