261
FXUS65 KTFX 062317
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
517 PM MDT MON APR 6 2026
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- IT WILL BE DRY AND WARM THIS AFTERNOON.
- IT WILL BE WINDY ON TUESDAY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN
MONTANA.
- LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL WILL RETURN FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 231 PM MDT MON APR 6 2026/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
THIS AFTERNOON THERE IS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTH-CENTRAL,
CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL BRING WARM TEMPERATURES
WITH DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. ON TUESDAY AN UPPER-
LEVEL LOW ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT TRACKS ALONG THE
CANADIAN/MONTANA BORDER. THIS WILL BRIEFLY BRING A STRONG SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA. LOW-LEVEL AND MID-LEVEL
WINDS INCREASE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WINDY
CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN
MONTANA ON TUESDAY. SEE THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS
SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE WINDS. THE COLD FRONT/UPPER-LEVEL
LOW WILL BRING ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTH-CENTRAL
MONTANA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA THERE WILL BE ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. WITH THESE SHOWERS THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. SEE THE FORECAST
CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS SECTION FOR DETAILS.
ON WEDNESDAY THERE WILL BE AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER NORTH-CENTRAL,
CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IT WILL BE COLDER ACROSS THE
AREA WITH LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW. WEDNESDAY MORNING STRONG WINDS WILL
LINGER ACROSS BLAINE AND FERGUS COUNTIES. ON THURSDAY THERE WILL BE
UPPER-LEVEL ZONAL FLOW WITH A BRIEF UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER NORTH-
CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER
DAY WITH COOL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER. ON FRIDAY THERE
WILL BE UPPER-LEVEL ZONAL FLOW OVER NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND
SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP
SLIGHTLY WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER. ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AN UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN
MONTANA. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP WITH MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER. -IG
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
ACROSS GALLATIN AND MADISON COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON THERE IS A
10% CHANCE FOR THUNDER. ON TUESDAY THERE WILL BE A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT FOR A FEW HOURS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA AND WINDS
ALOFT WILL INCREASE. THE MOST IMPACTFUL WINDS WILL OCCUR, IN THE
AREAS WHERE WINDS AT LOW AND MID LEVELS PEAK IN THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER AREA OF UNCERTAINTY IS THAT COLD AIR FROM
CANADA COULD MOVE IN FASTER THAN CURRENTLY THE MODELS ARE
PROJECTING AND UNDERCUT THE STRONG WINDS ALONG THE HI-LINE.
HOWEVER IN GLACIER COUNTY THERE WILL BE SEVERAL HOURS OF STRONG
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 75 MPH BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN AND
SHUTS OFF THE WINDS.
ON TUESDAY THERE IS GREATER THAN A 50% CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS OF 55
MPH OR GREATER ACROSS MOST OF NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND
SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT DOWN TO
MACDONALD PASS AND THE PLAINS WEST OF I-15 THERE IS GREATER THAN AN
95% CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 55 MPH. ALONG THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN FRONT THERE IS GREATER THAN A 80% CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 75 MPH ON TUESDAY. AS A RESULT ACROSS MOST OF NORTH-
CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA HIGH WIND WARNINGS WERE
ISSUED FOR TUESDAY. FOR THE I-90 CORRIDOR FROM WHITEHALL TO BOZEMAN
THERE IS VERY BRIEF PERIOD LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY TUESDAY WHERE THERE
COULD BE STRONG WIND GUSTS. SINCE THIS PERIOD IS BRIEF AND WIND
GUSTS DON'T LOOK TO BE MUCH MORE THAN 60 MPH IN THOSE AREAS, THEY
WERE EXCLUDED FROM THE HIGH WIND WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. ISOLATED
LOCATIONS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA THAT AREN'T
IN THE HIGH WIND WARNING HAVE A CHANCE TO EXCEED 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.
GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE IN MULTIPLE AREAS HITTING AND LOW
CONFIDENCE IN IT BEING MORE THAN A ONE AND DONE EVENT, THEY WERE
LEFT OUT OF THE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. ON WEDNESDAY THERE IS
GREATER THAN A 70% CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 55 MPH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF BLAINE AND FERGUS COUNTY. AS A RESULT FOR THE
BEARS PAW AREA AND THE LOWER-ELEVATIONS OF FERGUS COUNTY A HIGH
WIND WARNING WAS ISSUED FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. NORTHERN BLAINE COUNTY AND THE SNOWIES AND JUDITHS WERE
LEFT OUT OF THE WARNING DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY WIND GUSTS
CAUSING IMPACTS. SEE THE TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES SECTION
FOR DETAILS. -IG
AVIATION
07/00Z TAF PERIOD
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS DURING THIS TAF
PERIOD. DURING THIS TAF PERIOD A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH AND
BRING A WIND SHIFT TO MORE NORTHERLY WINDS. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
AT KCTB AND KHVR AROUND 07/18Z AND WILL BE AT THE KEKS TERMINAL
AFTER 08/00Z. AT AT ALL TERMINALS IT WILL BE WINDY AFTER 07/12Z.
AT THE KGTF, KCTB, AND KHLN TERMINALS THERE WILL BE WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 50KTS FOR SEVERAL HOURS TOWARDS THE END OF THIS TAF
PERIOD. AT THE KEKS AND KBZN TERMINALS THERE IS A 5 - 15% CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 07/18Z THROUGH 08/00Z. AFTER
07/19Z THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD THERE IS A 15 - 30%
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS AT THE KGTF, KHVR, AND KLWT TERMINALS. AT
THE KCTB TERMINAL AFTER 07/16Z THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD
THERE IS A 20 - 50% CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. ACROSS NORTH-
CENTRAL MONTANA DURING THIS TAF PERIOD THERE WILL BE INSTANCES OF
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND MOUNTAIN WAVE TURBULENCE AFTER 07/06Z
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT
THERE WILL BE MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION FOR THE LAST FEW HOURS OF THIS
TAF PERIOD. -IG
FIRE WEATHER
TUESDAY AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP NEAR CRITICAL
LEVELS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. THIS COMBINED
WITH GUSTY TO STRONG WINDS WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. ADDITIONALLY
THE HOT, DRY, AND WINDY INDEX EXCEEDING THE 95TH PERCENTILE WILL
SUPPORT THE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITONS. THE GREATEST RISK FOR
ANY FIRE SPREAD WILL BE IN THOSE AREAS WHERE THERE HASN'T BEEN
ANY GREENUP. -IG
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 41 63 26 49 / 0 20 40 10
CTB 37 56 21 44 / 0 60 30 0
HLN 40 65 30 56 / 0 10 10 0
BZN 35 68 27 57 / 0 20 10 0
WYS 27 58 25 52 / 10 20 10 0
DLN 38 65 27 58 / 0 10 0 0
HVR 32 63 26 43 / 10 20 20 0
LWT 33 65 24 45 / 0 30 40 10
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR EAST GLACIER
PARK REGION-EASTERN GLACIER, WESTERN TOOLE, AND CENTRAL PONDERA-
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS-SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS-SOUTHERN ROCKY
MOUNTAIN FRONT.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR BEAVERHEAD
AND WESTERN MADISON BELOW 6000FT-BIG BELT, BRIDGER AND CASTLE
MOUNTAINS-CASCADE COUNTY BELOW 5000FT-EASTERN PONDERA AND
EASTERN TETON-EASTERN TOOLE AND LIBERTY-ELKHORN AND BOULDER
MOUNTAINS-GATES OF THE MOUNTAINS-HELENA VALLEY-JUDITH BASIN
COUNTY AND JUDITH GAP-LITTLE BELT AND HIGHWOOD MOUNTAINS-MADISON
RIVER VALLEY-MEAGHER COUNTY VALLEYS-NORTHWEST BEAVERHEAD COUNTY-
UPPER BLACKFOOT AND MACDONALD PASS-WESTERN AND CENTRAL CHOUTEAU
COUNTY.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO NOON MDT WEDNESDAY FOR
BEARS PAW MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN BLAINE-FERGUS COUNTY BELOW
4500FT.
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