020
FXUS65 KTFX 072003
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
203 PM MDT TUE APR 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- IT WILL BE WINDY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- IT WILL BE COOLER ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH A WARM UP FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
- POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL
MONTANA ON SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
THIS AFTERNOON AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE COLD
FRONT TRACKS ALONG THE CANADIAN/MONTANA BORDER. LOW-LEVEL AND MID-
LEVEL WINDS ARE INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY ALONG THE HI-LINE. THIS WILL LEAD TO WINDY CONDTIONS
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA SOUTH OF
THE HI-LINE THIS AFTERNOON. SEE THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE &
SCENARIOS SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE WINDS. THE COLD
FRONT/UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL BRING ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
TO NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA THERE IS LOW POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. WITH
THESE SHOWERS THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER.
ON WEDNESDAY THERE WILL BE AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER NORTH-CENTRAL,
CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IT WILL BE COLDER ACROSS THE
AREA WITH LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW. WEDNESDAY MORNING STRONG WINDS WILL
LINGER ACROSS BLAINE AND FERGUS COUNTIES. ON THURSDAY THERE WILL BE
UPPER-LEVEL ZONAL FLOW WITH A BRIEF UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER NORTH-
CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER
DAY WITH COOL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER. ON FRIDAY THERE
WILL BE UPPER-LEVEL ZONAL FLOW OVER NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND
SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP
SLIGHTLY WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER. ON SATURDAY THERE IS AN UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA.
THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP. THIS COMBINED WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OVER
NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. -IG
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
ACROSS GALLATIN AND MADISON COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON THERE IS A 10%
CHANCE FOR THUNDER. THE COLD FRONT HAS MADE ITS WAY THROUGH PORTIONS
OF THE HI-LINE THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT THE HIGH WIND WARNINGS
FOR GLACIER TOOLE, AND LIBERTY COUNTIES HAS BEEN CANCELLED AS THE
THREAT FOR STRONG WINDS HAS BEEN NULLIFIED BY THE COLDER AIR THAT
HAS MOVED INTO THOSE AREAS. IT IS LIKELY THAT AT LEAST SOME OF
THE REST OF THE WARNINGS FOR ALL BUT FERGUS AND BLAINE COUNTIES
WILL BE ENDED PRIOR TO THE CURRENT WARNING END TIME OF 9 PM. ON
WEDNESDAY THERE IS GREATER THAN A 50% CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 55 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF BLAINE AND FERGUS COUNTY. AS A
RESULT FOR THE BEARS PAW AREA AND THE LOWER-ELEVATIONS OF FERGUS
COUNTY A HIGH WIND WARNING WAS ISSUED FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SEE THE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FOR DETAILS. -IG
AVIATION
07/18Z TAF PERIOD
GUSTY WINDS AND MOUNTAIN WAVE TURBULENCE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND
ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS AND SOUTHWEST MT EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS OF 40-50KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
TERMINALS, THOUGH THESE HIGHER WIND SPEEDS WILL BE MORE ISOLATED
DEPENDING ON HOW WELL THE STRONG WINDS MIX TO THE SURFACE. A COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY ALONG THE HI-LINE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH,
BRINGING A NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND SHIFT AT TERMINALS, AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS MOSTLY THE HI-LINE. WINDS WILL DECREASE IN
THE EVENING. MVFR CLOUDS MAY MOVE IN FROM CANADA TO KHVR TONIGHT. -WILSON
FIRE WEATHER
GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH MODESTLY LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO RESULT IN LOCALIZED ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS TODAY. THE AREAS OF CONCERN WILL BE IN AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN
LITTLE PRECIPITATION RECENTLY AND HAVE NOT HAD ANY GREENING UP
YET. -AM
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 27 49 29 53 / 30 0 10 10
CTB 22 47 24 51 / 20 0 20 0
HLN 29 57 32 58 / 10 0 0 0
BZN 28 58 31 60 / 10 0 0 0
WYS 26 53 28 59 / 10 0 0 10
DLN 29 61 33 64 / 0 0 0 0
HVR 26 46 26 53 / 20 0 20 0
LWT 25 45 27 50 / 30 0 10 20
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR BEAVERHEAD AND
WESTERN MADISON BELOW 6000FT-BIG BELT, BRIDGER AND CASTLE
MOUNTAINS-CASCADE COUNTY BELOW 5000FT-EASTERN PONDERA AND
EASTERN TETON-ELKHORN AND BOULDER MOUNTAINS-GATES OF THE
MOUNTAINS-HELENA VALLEY-JUDITH BASIN COUNTY AND JUDITH GAP-
LITTLE BELT AND HIGHWOOD MOUNTAINS-MADISON RIVER VALLEY-MEAGHER
COUNTY VALLEYS-NORTHWEST BEAVERHEAD COUNTY-SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS-
SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT-UPPER BLACKFOOT AND MACDONALD PASS-
WESTERN AND CENTRAL CHOUTEAU COUNTY.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT WEDNESDAY FOR BEARS PAW
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN BLAINE-FERGUS COUNTY BELOW 4500FT.
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