269
FXUS65 KTFX 080446
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1046 PM MDT TUE APR 7 2026
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- IT WILL BE WINDY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- IT WILL BE COOLER ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH A WARM UP FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
- POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL
MONTANA ON SATURDAY.
UPDATE
/ISSUED 854 PM MDT TUE APR 7 2026/
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWS THE COMPACT MID-UPPER LEVEL
LOW THAT BROUGHT STRONG WINDS TO THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON
CONTINUING TO TRACK EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN SK THIS EVENING. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL MT
THIS EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHWEST MT
OVERNIGHT, WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE STILL MILD ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-90 BUT WILL COOL TO THE 30S OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH
WIND WARNINGS FOR ALL BUT EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL MT
WILL EXPIRE AT 9PM, THOUGH SOME GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30-40MPH ARE
STILL POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH REMAINING PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST MT OVERNIGHT. A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND ENHANCED
NW MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL PASS ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH-
CENTRAL MT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND IS ON TRACK
TO BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF STRONG WIND GUSTS THERE, MAINLY FOCUSED
ON AREAS NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN INCLUDING THE BEARS PAW,
MOCCASIN AND JUDITH RANGES AS WELL AS AREAS EAST OF THE SNOWIES.
HOENISCH
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 854 PM MDT TUE APR 7 2026/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
THIS AFTERNOON AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE COLD
FRONT TRACKS ALONG THE CANADIAN/MONTANA BORDER. LOW-LEVEL AND MID-
LEVEL WINDS ARE INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY ALONG THE HI-LINE. THIS WILL LEAD TO WINDY CONDTIONS
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA SOUTH OF
THE HI-LINE THIS AFTERNOON. SEE THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE &
SCENARIOS SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE WINDS. THE COLD
FRONT/UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL BRING ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
TO NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA THERE IS LOW POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. WITH
THESE SHOWERS THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER.
ON WEDNESDAY THERE WILL BE AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER NORTH-CENTRAL,
CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IT WILL BE COLDER ACROSS THE
AREA WITH LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW. WEDNESDAY MORNING STRONG WINDS WILL
LINGER ACROSS BLAINE AND FERGUS COUNTIES. ON THURSDAY THERE WILL BE
UPPER-LEVEL ZONAL FLOW WITH A BRIEF UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER NORTH-
CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER
DAY WITH COOL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER. ON FRIDAY THERE
WILL BE UPPER-LEVEL ZONAL FLOW OVER NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND
SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP
SLIGHTLY WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER. ON SATURDAY THERE IS AN UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA.
THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP. THIS COMBINED WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OVER
NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. -IG
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
ACROSS GALLATIN AND MADISON COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON THERE IS A 10%
CHANCE FOR THUNDER. THE COLD FRONT HAS MADE ITS WAY THROUGH PORTIONS
OF THE HI-LINE THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT THE HIGH WIND WARNINGS
FOR GLACIER TOOLE, AND LIBERTY COUNTIES HAS BEEN CANCELLED AS THE
THREAT FOR STRONG WINDS HAS BEEN NULLIFIED BY THE COLDER AIR THAT
HAS MOVED INTO THOSE AREAS. IT IS LIKELY THAT AT LEAST SOME OF
THE REST OF THE WARNINGS FOR ALL BUT FERGUS AND BLAINE COUNTIES
WILL BE ENDED PRIOR TO THE CURRENT WARNING END TIME OF 9 PM. ON
WEDNESDAY THERE IS GREATER THAN A 50% CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 55 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF BLAINE AND FERGUS COUNTY. AS A
RESULT FOR THE BEARS PAW AREA AND THE LOWER-ELEVATIONS OF FERGUS
COUNTY A HIGH WIND WARNING WAS ISSUED FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SEE THE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FOR DETAILS. -IG
AVIATION
08/06Z TAF PERIOD
A FAST WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE
REGION MAINTAINING SOME RISK FOR MOUNTAIN WAVE TURBULENCE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE FLOW RELAXES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MID
LEVEL CLOUDS AND SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, CREATING SOME
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION, THOUGH CIG/VIS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR AT
TERMINALS WITH A LOW (<20%) RISK OF MVFR CIGS. SURFACE WINDS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL MT WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30KTS POSSIBLE AT KHVR
AND KLWT FOR A PERIOD WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS GRADUALLY RELAX
AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY AND BECOME LIGHT WEDNESDAY EVENING. HOENISCH
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 27 51 30 53 / 30 0 20 20
CTB 22 49 25 51 / 20 0 20 10
HLN 29 59 33 58 / 0 0 0 0
BZN 28 59 31 60 / 10 0 0 0
WYS 26 56 27 58 / 10 0 10 0
DLN 30 62 34 63 / 0 0 0 0
HVR 26 48 26 53 / 10 10 30 20
LWT 25 46 28 50 / 30 0 20 20
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT WEDNESDAY FOR BEARS PAW
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN BLAINE-FERGUS COUNTY BELOW 4500FT.
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
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