350
FXUS65 KTFX 080845
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
245 AM MDT WED APR 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS LINGER THIS MORNING, MOSTLY OVER FERGUS
COUNTY AND OVER THE FORT BELKNAP AREA.
- SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A FEW ISOLATED RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN AREAS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS BEFORE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES RETURN TO ALL AREAS FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
- WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY LIGHT, MOSTLY MOUNTAIN SNOW AND
COOLER SHOWERY LOWER ELEVATION CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
THE PACIFIC TROUGH AND COLD FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR YESTERDAY'S
STRONG WINDS HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST. THERE'S STILL 50 TO 60 KT
H700 FLOW ON BACK SIDE OF THE LOW THAT WILL MAINTAIN PERIODS OF
GUSTY TO STRONG NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS OVER THE EASTERN THIRD
OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE,
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES, LOW CLOUDS, AND EVEN A FEW RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL AREAS FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY, MOSTLY FOR PLAINS LOCATIONS EAST OF I15.
ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF LOWER CLOUDS AND
SOME SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY, AGAIN MOSTLY OVER THE
PLAINS. WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTY NORTHERLY BREEZES WITH THIS
ONE, STRONG WINDS ARE GENERALLY NOT EXPECTED.
A SPLIT TROUGH THEN APPROACHES THE PACIFIC COAST ON FRIDAY AND
FORCES A SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES BY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WARM BACK ABOVE AVERAGE
ON THE ASCENT SIDE OF THIS TROUGH AND THE MORE UNSTABLE FLOW
ALOFT EVEN BRINGS IN AROUND 200 TO 500 J/KG OF CAPE BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SEND A WAVE OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY.
THE TROUGH AXIS IS PROGGED TO PASS THROUGH ROUGHLY IN THE SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY TIMEFRAME. MOST OF THE ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM
LOOKS TO REMAIN SOUTH OVER THE GREAT BASIN REGION, BUT THERE WILL
STILL BE SUFFICIENT FORCING AND MOISTURE FOR PERIODS OF LIGHT
MOUNTAIN SNOW AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS. THE UNSETTLED PATTERN LOOKS TO PERSIST DEEP INTO NEXT
WEEK WITH AT LEAST A COUPLE MORE TROUGH PASSAGES. - RCG
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
LINGERING WINDS THIS MORNING...
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING
TROUGH WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG, GUSTY WINDS OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD OF CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL MT THIS MORNING. PEAK WINDS
LOOK TO OCCUR BETWEEN 7 AND 11 AM THIS MORNING AND WILL MOSTLY
IMPACT NORTHERN AND EASTERN FERGUS COUNTY AND THE FORT BELKNAP
AREA. THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH CONTINUES FOR
THESE AREAS THROUGH NOON TODAY.
THE NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM MOVES IN THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...
A WARMER AND MORE UNSTABLE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS EARLY THIS
WEEKEND IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH. THIS WILL WARM
TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE AVERAGE WHILE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INCREASES IN A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
FASHION. AREAS DIRECTLY ALONG THE ID/WY BORDERS MAY SEE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM AS EARLY AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
OTHERWISE, SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE THE MOST ACTIVE DAY WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWEST MT
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ONTO THE
PLAINS BY THE EVENING HOURS. NOT LOOKING FOR TOO MUCH OF AN IMPACT
OTHER THAN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES AND LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS.
TEMPERATURES COOL BACK DOWN TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE AND
SHOWER ACTIVITY BECOMES MORE NUMEROUS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTIES TO WORK OUT WITH THIS BEING A SPLIT
TROUGH, BUT THE CURRENT EXCEEDENCE PROBABILITIES FAVOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN AREAS WITH A 50 TO 70% CHANCE FOR RAIN/LIQUID
EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS EXCEEDING A HALF INCH FOR THE 48
HOUR PERIOD ENDING 6 AM TUESDAY. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS OVER THE
DRIER SOUTHWEST VALLEYS INCLUDING THE DILLON AREA. APPRECIABLE
SNOW AMOUNTS GREATER THAN 3 INCHES LOOK TO BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO
MOUNTAIN AREAS. - RCG
AVIATION
08/06Z TAF PERIOD
A FAST WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE
REGION MAINTAINING SOME RISK FOR MOUNTAIN WAVE TURBULENCE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE FLOW RELAXES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MID
LEVEL CLOUDS AND SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, CREATING SOME
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION, THOUGH CIG/VIS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR AT
TERMINALS WITH A LOW (<20%) RISK OF MVFR CIGS. SURFACE WINDS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL MT WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30KTS POSSIBLE AT KHVR
AND KLWT FOR A PERIOD WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS GRADUALLY RELAX
AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY AND BECOME LIGHT WEDNESDAY EVENING. HOENISCH
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 51 30 53 28 / 0 20 20 0
CTB 49 25 51 25 / 0 20 10 0
HLN 59 33 58 31 / 0 0 0 0
BZN 59 31 60 29 / 0 0 0 0
WYS 56 27 58 27 / 0 10 0 0
DLN 62 34 63 33 / 0 0 0 0
HVR 48 26 53 27 / 10 30 20 0
LWT 46 28 50 28 / 0 20 20 0
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR BEARS PAW MOUNTAINS
AND SOUTHERN BLAINE-FERGUS COUNTY BELOW 4500FT.
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
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