358
FXUS65 KTFX 082102
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
302 PM MDT WED APR 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A SLOW WARMING TREND EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
- OTHER THAN AN ISOLATED SHOWER TONIGHT OVER NORTH CENTRAL MT, THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS FRI AND SAT.
- A MORE WIDESPREAD WETTER WEATHER SYSTEM EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY, ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
A QUIET NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS CURRENTLY OVER MT. HOWEVER, A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
CANADA INTO NORTH CENTRAL MT OVERNIGHT. THIS DISTURBANCE COULD
CREATE A FEW LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF NORTH CENTRAL MT LATE TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH THE PROBABILITY IS
STILL QUITE LOW.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT A SLOW WARMING TREND FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY ACROSS THE CWA. THE MAIN CONCERN FRI/SAT WILL BE THE FLOW
ALOFT SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST, ALLOWING FOR UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES TO MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA. THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY ON BOTH FRI/SAT AFTERNOON'S THAT A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, WITH SATURDAY BEING THE MORE
LIKELY DAY.
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, A STRONGER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR A
WETTING RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM, ALONG WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING
TO AROUND 5000 FEET. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER SUN/MON, BEFORE
STARTING TO SLOWLY WARM BACK UP A BIT ON MON/TUE.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FRI AND AGAIN ON
SAT, WITH SAT STILL LOOKING LIKE A HIGHER CHANCE FOR STORMS.
IN TERMS OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION, A WIDESPREAD LIQUID
PRECIPITATION AMOUNT OF 0.30 TO 0.60 LOOKS LIKELY OVER THE CWA
FROM SUN INTO MON. SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO LOWER BETWEEN 5000 AND 6000
FEET, WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE FOR 4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL SUN/MON
FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6000 FEET. BRUSDA
AVIATION
08/18Z TAF PERIOD
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS DURING THIS TAF
PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS WILL AFFECT THE KLWT AND KHVR TERMINALS FOR
THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THIS TAF PERIOD. AT THE KHVR TERMINAL THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE FOR FOG TO FORM THURSDAY MORNING. AT THE KHVR
TERMINAL BETWEEN 09/09Z AND 09/12Z THERE IS A 15 - 20% CHANCE FOR
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. DURING THE LAST HALF OF THIS TAF PERIOD ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. -IG
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 28 54 28 66 / 0 0 0 0
CTB 24 52 24 64 / 10 0 0 0
HLN 33 59 32 69 / 0 0 0 0
BZN 30 61 30 69 / 0 0 0 10
WYS 27 60 27 64 / 0 0 0 30
DLN 33 65 33 70 / 0 0 0 10
HVR 26 54 26 68 / 20 10 0 0
LWT 27 52 28 64 / 0 10 0 0
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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