126
FXUS65 KTFX 082338
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
538 PM MDT WED APR 8 2026
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- A SLOW WARMING TREND EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
- OTHER THAN AN ISOLATED SHOWER TONIGHT OVER NORTH CENTRAL MT, THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS FRI AND SAT.
- A MORE WIDESPREAD WETTER WEATHER SYSTEM EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY, ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 302 PM MDT WED APR 8 2026/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
A QUIET NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS CURRENTLY OVER MT. HOWEVER, A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
CANADA INTO NORTH CENTRAL MT OVERNIGHT. THIS DISTURBANCE COULD
CREATE A FEW LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF NORTH CENTRAL MT LATE TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH THE PROBABILITY IS
STILL QUITE LOW.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT A SLOW WARMING TREND FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY ACROSS THE CWA. THE MAIN CONCERN FRI/SAT WILL BE THE FLOW
ALOFT SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST, ALLOWING FOR UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES TO MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA. THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY ON BOTH FRI/SAT AFTERNOON'S THAT A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, WITH SATURDAY BEING THE MORE
LIKELY DAY.
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, A STRONGER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR A
WETTING RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM, ALONG WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING
TO AROUND 5000 FEET. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER SUN/MON, BEFORE
STARTING TO SLOWLY WARM BACK UP A BIT ON MON/TUE.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FRI AND AGAIN ON
SAT, WITH SAT STILL LOOKING LIKE A HIGHER CHANCE FOR STORMS.
IN TERMS OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION, A WIDESPREAD LIQUID
PRECIPITATION AMOUNT OF 0.30 TO 0.60 LOOKS LIKELY OVER THE CWA
FROM SUN INTO MON. SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO LOWER BETWEEN 5000 AND 6000
FEET, WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE FOR 4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL SUN/MON
FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6000 FEET. BRUSDA
AVIATION
09/00Z TAF PERIOD
A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND MT WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT AREA TERMINALS
THROUGH THURSDAY. MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD-COVER INCREASES SOME LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH A FEW ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES, LOWER VFR CLOUD CEILINGS AND SOME MOUNTAIN TOP
OBSCURATION POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL MT THURSDAY
MORNING AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES NORTH OF THE
AREA. SURFACE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND GENERALLY FROM THE EAST ON
THE PLAINS TONIGHT WITH A SHIFT TO NORTH OR NORTHWEST WINDS
OCCURRING LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING BEHIND THE
PASSING WEATHER DISTURBANCE. HOENISCH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 28 54 28 66 / 0 0 0 0
CTB 24 52 24 64 / 10 0 0 0
HLN 33 59 32 69 / 0 0 0 0
BZN 30 61 30 69 / 0 0 0 10
WYS 27 60 27 64 / 0 0 0 30
DLN 33 65 33 70 / 0 0 0 10
HVR 26 54 26 68 / 20 10 0 0
LWT 27 52 28 64 / 0 10 0 0
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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