691
FXUS65 KTFX 090557
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1157 PM MDT WED APR 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMING TREND BEGINS FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES PEAKING ON
SATURDAY.
- THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
- COOLER AND WETTER WEATHER MOVES IN LATER SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH MAINLY HIGH ELEVATION SNOW.
DISCUSSION
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTH-CENTRAL MT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THAT
EXITS ACROSS EASTERN MT BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES ACROSS THE STATE BEHIND THE WAVE, BRINGING ONE MORE DAY OF
NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE PLAINS WHILE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHWEST MT.
NOTICEABLE WARMING BEGINS FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BRIEFLY
BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AHEAD OF TROUGHING THAT MOVES
ONSHORE THIS WEEKEND WITH ADDITIONAL WARMING LIKELY SATURDAY AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH. INITIAL
MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN AND TERRAIN
HEATING ACROSS SOUTHWEST MT MAY SUPPORT SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. DEEPER MOISTURE AND AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE EJECTING
OUT OF THE WESTERN UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND A RISK FOR ISOLATED/WEAK THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A COOLER AND WETTER PERIOD OF WEATHER FOLLOWS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN US. THE BULK
OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVES BY TO OUR SOUTH, BUT SEVERAL WEAKER
DISTURBANCES AND WAVES OF MOISTURE ARE LIKELY TO LIFT ACROSS THE
REGION FOR PERIODS OF MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
SMALLER SCALE WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH SUN/MON AND THESE
DIFFERENCES INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY REGARDING HOW
MUCH OF A BREAK THERE MAY BE IN THE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS BEFORE
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM ARRIVES AROUND MID-WEEK. HOENISCH
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS MAINLY LIMITED TO AREAS NEAR THE
ID BORDER LATE FRIDAY WITH A 15-20% RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS AS FAR
NORTH AS CENTRAL MT SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THERE IS 30-50% PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 0.50"
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH
A 20-30% PROBABILITY FOR AMOUNTS OF 1.00" OR MORE MAINLY LIMITED
TO THE CENTRAL MT RANGES NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND LITTLE
BELTS. SNOW LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO LOWER TO AROUND
6000-7000FT BY SUNDAY AND FURTHER LOWER TO AROUND 5000 FT ON
MONDAY. THIS WOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTFUL SNOW ACCUMULATION
AT PASS LEVELS TO MAINLY THE MONDAY MORNING PERIOD, BUT THERE IS
STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT. HOENISCH
AVIATION
09/06Z TAF PERIOD
MID- TO HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PASS THROUGH A WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A SHORTWAVE AND
WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BRING A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT,
SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW VFR/MVFR CLOUDS, AND A FEW ISOLATED LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES BETWEEN 09/09 AND 09/22Z, MOSTLY FOR
CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL AREAS. THESE LOWER CLOUDS WILL OBSCURE
MOUNTAINS, PARTICULARLY NEAR THE CENTRAL MT ISLAND RANGES.- RCG
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 28 53 28 66 / 0 0 0 0
CTB 23 51 24 63 / 10 0 0 0
HLN 32 59 32 68 / 0 0 0 0
BZN 30 60 30 68 / 0 0 0 10
WYS 27 59 27 64 / 0 0 0 30
DLN 33 64 33 69 / 0 0 0 10
HVR 25 53 27 68 / 20 10 0 0
LWT 27 51 27 64 / 10 10 0 0
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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