151
FXUS65 KTFX 230907
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
307 AM MDT THU APR 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- IMPACTFUL WINTER WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT.
- GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE PLAINS TODAY AND DEVELOP
AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING.
- SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN MANY AREAS.
- OVERALL COOLER AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS PERSIST THIS WEEKEND
BEFORE GRADUAL WARMING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
THE INITIAL WAVE WITHIN A CONGLOMERATE OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES IS
PASSING OFF TO THE EAST EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SECOND WAVE DIVING
SOUTHWARD FROM FAR SOUTHEASTERN BC IS JUST BEGINNING TO MOVE IN,
WHICH WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER OF SNOW ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
AND ADJACENT AREAS TODAY. AT THE SURFACE, GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
CONTINUE OVER THE PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH SNOW LEVELS STILL
FALLING ACROSS THE REGION. HEAVY SNOW IS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING, BUT IS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT LEAST
BRIEFLY AT SOME LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS SUCH AS IN AND AROUND
THE ARMINGTON JUNCTION AREA. THE RISK FOR LOCALIZED BRIEF BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS NEAR THE LITTLE BELTS AND EAST OF ARMINGTON JUNCTION
TO GEYSER WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING AS
WINDS EASE SOMEWHAT AND SNOWFALL RATES DECREASE. THERE WAS SOME
CONCERN FOR A STRONGER BAND OF PRECIPITATION TO BACK IN FROM THE
EAST OR NORTHEAST ASSOCIATED WITH A TROWAL, BUT LATEST SHORT-TERM
GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS ACTIVITY IN EASTERN MONTANA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND MORNING. GUSTY WINDS DO LOOK TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE PLAINS, MAINLY EAST OF A SHELBY TO LEWISTOWN
LINE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, GUSTIEST DOWNSTREAM OF TERRAIN.
ATTENTION THEN QUICKLY TURNS TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND ADJACENT
AREAS TODAY INTO TONIGHT, AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE DROPPING FROM
BC TOWARD WESTERN MT AND EVENTUALLY SW MT MOVES IN. A FRONTOGENETIC
BAND OF SNOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP AND SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD TODAY INTO
TONIGHT ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA.
MOST SNOW LOOKS RATHER LIGHT, BUT AS THE BAND MOVES THROUGH
LOCALLY HEAVIER SNOWFALL WILL DEVELOP FOR A FEW HOURS. IMPACTS
FROM THE SNOW LARGELY LOOK MINOR AT AND BELOW PASSES, THOUGH
HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN MADISON AND GALLATIN COUNTY DO LOOK TO SEE
CONTINUED SLIGHTLY MORE IMPACTFUL SNOW.
A COLD, CYCLONIC NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY
ACROSS THE REGION AS MANY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVES ALOFT
CONSOLIDATE INTO A LARGER UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SK AND VICINITY.
WHILE SYNOPTIC SNOW GRADUALLY ENDS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MONTANA AND
ADJACENT AREAS FRIDAY MORNING, SNOW SHOWERS WILL BECOME NUMEROUS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY OVER THE PLAINS THANKS TO STEEP
LAPSE RATES. THE COMBINATION OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS
OVER THE PLAINS BRINGS ABOUT A SNOW SQUALL CONCERN SHOULD A MORE
CONSOLIDATED LINE DEVELOP.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW GRADUALLY DRIFTS BACK WESTWARD THIS WEEKEND
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN CANADA, CONTINUING TO PROMOTE COOLER AND
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. IT ISN'T UNTIL EARLY NEXT
WEEK UNTIL THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOWS SIGNS THAT IT WILL EXIT
EASTWARD AND ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO TREND BACK CLOSER TO
NORMAL.
-AM
AVIATION
23/06Z TAF PERIOD
FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THIS TAF PERIOD THERE WILL BE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AROUND THE KHVR AND KLWT TERMINALS. AT THE KBZN, KEKS, AND
KWYS TERMINALS BETWEEN 23/18Z AND 23/24Z THERE IS A 10 - 20% CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS. DURING THE MAJORITY OF THIS TAF PERIOD THERE WILL
BE RAIN AND SNOW AROUND THE KBZN, KEKS, KWYS, AND KHLN TERMINALS
WITH RAIN AND SNOW AROUND THE KCTB, KGTF, KHVR, AND KLWT TERMINALS
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THIS TAF PERIOD. DURING THE MAJORITY OF
THIS TAF PERIOD THERE WILL BE MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ACROSS NORTH-
CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. BETWEEN NOW AND 23/15Z
THERE WILL BE ISOLATED INSTANCES OF LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND
MOUNTAIN WAVE TURBULENCE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. -IG
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 40 24 39 21 / 50 30 50 30
CTB 41 21 35 19 / 30 20 50 30
HLN 39 23 40 20 / 90 60 60 20
BZN 42 20 39 16 / 80 60 60 10
WYS 41 14 36 11 / 80 70 80 20
DLN 45 22 39 18 / 70 70 60 10
HVR 46 24 36 21 / 30 30 60 40
LWT 38 21 35 18 / 70 20 50 30
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR BEARS PAW
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN BLAINE-EASTERN TOOLE AND LIBERTY-FERGUS
COUNTY BELOW 4500FT-HILL COUNTY-NORTHERN BLAINE COUNTY-WESTERN
AND CENTRAL CHOUTEAU COUNTY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR BEARS
PAW MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN BLAINE-EAST GLACIER PARK REGION-
FERGUS COUNTY BELOW 4500FT-NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS-SNOWY AND JUDITH
MOUNTAINS.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT FRIDAY FOR BIG BELT,
BRIDGER AND CASTLE MOUNTAINS-ELKHORN AND BOULDER MOUNTAINS-GATES
OF THE MOUNTAINS-HELENA VALLEY-NORTHWEST BEAVERHEAD COUNTY-RUBY
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN BEAVERHEAD MOUNTAINS-SOUTHERN ROCKY
MOUNTAIN FRONT-UPPER BLACKFOOT AND MACDONALD PASS.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR JUDITH
BASIN COUNTY AND JUDITH GAP-LITTLE BELT AND HIGHWOOD MOUNTAINS.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT FRIDAY FOR GALLATIN AND
MADISON COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND CENTENNIAL MOUNTAINS.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR CASCADE COUNTY
BELOW 5000FT.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON MDT
FRIDAY FOR BEAVERHEAD AND WESTERN MADISON BELOW 6000FT-CANYON
FERRY AREA-GALLATIN VALLEY-MADISON RIVER VALLEY-MISSOURI
HEADWATERS.
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
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