156
FXUS65 KTFX 232202
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
402 PM MDT THU APR 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- IMPACTFUL WINTER WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
MONTANA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH IMPACTS EXPECTED FOR THE
FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
MONTANA FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
- IMPACTFUL WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE HI-
LINE STARTING FRIDAY MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
- OVERALL COOLER AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS PERSIST THIS WEEKEND
BEFORE GRADUALLY WARMING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY SOUTH BRINGING
WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR IMPACTFUL SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
MONTANA THROUGH LATE FRIDAY MORNING. IMPACTS BELOW PASS LEVEL ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN MINOR. THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL AND
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE MADISON AND GALLATIN RANGES WHICH
WILL REMAIN UNDER A WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, A COMBINATION OF
NORTHWEST FLOW AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW SHOWERS AND ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY CONDITIONS
ALONG THE HI-LINE. DEPENDING ON HOW THE TIMING OF THE HEAVIEST
SNOW AND STRONGEST WINDS PLAY OUT, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME
BRIEF PERIODS OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE US-2
CORRIDOR WHICH MAY LEAD TO REDUCED VISIBILITY AT TIMES.
HEADING THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY MIGRATE TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN
TOWARDS NORTHERN MANITOBA. IN THE MEANTIME, OUR REGION WILL REMAIN
UNDER A WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO CONTINUE, PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF DAILY CHANCES FOR
MOUNTAIN SNOW THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
COOL THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE A WARMING TREND STARTS BACK UP BY
THE EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE
FURTHER EAST AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD BACK UP IN
ITS PLACE.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL MONTANA SNOW:
FOR THE MOST PART THE GOING FORECAST FROM EARLIER TODAY REMAINS ON
TRACK IN TERMS OF THE EXPECTED IMPACTS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
ONE WILD CARD THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING WILL BE THE LITTLE BELTS.
THE CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNING ENDS AT 6 PM TONIGHT AND, AS OF
NOW, THE SNOWFALL THAT IS FORECASTED BETWEEN 6 PM TONIGHT AND NOON
TOMORROW IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN EXTENSION OF THE
WARNING. SO FOR NOW A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ADDED ON TO
ACCOUNT FOR SNOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTFUL BUT NOT SEVERE.
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE LITTLE BELTS COULD OVER-PERFORM WHICH
MIGHT WARRANT AN UPGRADE AT A LATER TIME BUT EVEN THIS AFTERNOON
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THAT WILL HAPPEN.
OTHERWISE, THERE WAS NO NEED TO ADD ANY ADDITIONAL ZONES TO THE
ADVISORIES ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MONTANA.
HI-LINE SNOW:
THERE IS HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ALONG
THE HI-LINE TO WARRANT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES. THE TWO WILD
CARDS WILL BE THE SWEETGRASS HILLS AND THE BEARS PAW. THE
SWEETGRASS HILLS COULD POTENTIALLY GET CLOSE TO WARNING CRITERIA
BUT BECAUSE HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO
EXPAND OVER A WIDER AREA PAST THE HILLS, THE DECISION WAS MADE TO
KEEP IT AS AN ADVISORY FOR NOW.
FOR THE BEARS PAW, GIVEN THE SETUP WITH COLD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW,
IT IS MUCH MORE LIKELY THAT AREAS ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE MOUNTAINS OVER-PERFORM AND RECEIVE MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS
COMPARED TO THE SURROUNDING PORTIONS OF THE HI-LINE. FOR THIS
REASON, A WINTER STORM WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR THE BEARS PAW WITH
THE MOST IMPACTFUL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED ABOVE 4000 FEET. THIS
COULD MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT ALONG AREA ROADS INCLUDING MONTANA
234.
ONE CONCERN PARTICULAR TO THE HI-LINE TOMORROW WILL BE STRONG
WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
ISSUE ANOTHER HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE REGION BUT WITH GUSTS UP
TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE, THERE IS A CONCERN THAT IF THE HEAVIER
SNOWFALL RATES OVERLAP WITH THE STRONGER WIND GUSTS THERE COULD
BE PERIODS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY ALONG AREA ROADS. MOTORISTS
SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR SUDDEN REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY ALONG AREA
ROADS. -THOR
AVIATION
23/18Z TAF PERIOD
AN AREA OF MID- LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS CONTINUING TO MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST MT AND WILL INTRODUCE PERIODIC
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AND SNOW TO KBZN, KEKS, AND KWYS. CONDITIONS
HAVE IMPROVED AT KHLN, BUT THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS
THAT MAY BRING IFR/LIFR CATEGORIES ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
COLD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SEND MORE ROUNDS OF LOW
STRATUS, LIGHT TO AT TIMES MODERATE SNOW, AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS TO ALL AREAS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. - RCG
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 25 38 24 42 / 40 70 30 20
CTB 22 35 19 38 / 30 60 20 20
HLN 23 40 21 45 / 70 50 20 20
BZN 21 40 16 46 / 70 60 10 20
WYS 17 36 11 43 / 70 70 10 20
DLN 22 40 18 46 / 70 50 10 10
HVR 24 36 21 41 / 30 70 40 20
LWT 21 34 18 40 / 10 60 20 20
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR EAST
GLACIER PARK REGION.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM FRIDAY TO NOON MDT SATURDAY
FOR EASTERN TOOLE AND LIBERTY-HILL COUNTY-NORTHERN BLAINE COUNTY.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR BEARS PAW
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN BLAINE-FERGUS COUNTY BELOW 4500FT-
NORTHERN BLAINE COUNTY.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM FRIDAY TO NOON MDT SATURDAY FOR
BEARS PAW MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN BLAINE.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT FRIDAY FOR BIG BELT,
BRIDGER AND CASTLE MOUNTAINS-ELKHORN AND BOULDER MOUNTAINS-GATES
OF THE MOUNTAINS-HELENA VALLEY-NORTHWEST BEAVERHEAD COUNTY-RUBY
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN BEAVERHEAD MOUNTAINS-SOUTHERN ROCKY
MOUNTAIN FRONT-UPPER BLACKFOOT AND MACDONALD PASS.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR LITTLE BELT
AND HIGHWOOD MOUNTAINS.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT FRIDAY FOR BEAVERHEAD AND
WESTERN MADISON BELOW 6000FT-CANYON FERRY AREA-GALLATIN VALLEY-
LITTLE BELT AND HIGHWOOD MOUNTAINS-MADISON RIVER VALLEY-MEAGHER
COUNTY VALLEYS-MISSOURI HEADWATERS.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT FRIDAY FOR GALLATIN AND
MADISON COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND CENTENNIAL MOUNTAINS.
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