618
FXUS65 KTFX 240533
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1133 PM MDT THU APR 23 2026
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- IMPACTFUL WINTER WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
MONTANA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH IMPACTS EXPECTED FOR THE
FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
MONTANA FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
- IMPACTFUL WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE HI-
LINE STARTING FRIDAY MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
- OVERALL COOLER AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS PERSIST THIS WEEKEND
BEFORE GRADUALLY WARMING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 553 PM MDT THU APR 23 2026/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY SOUTH BRINGING
WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR IMPACTFUL SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
MONTANA THROUGH LATE FRIDAY MORNING. IMPACTS BELOW PASS LEVEL ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN MINOR. THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL AND
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE MADISON AND GALLATIN RANGES WHICH
WILL REMAIN UNDER A WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, A COMBINATION OF
NORTHWEST FLOW AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW SHOWERS AND ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY CONDITIONS
ALONG THE HI-LINE. DEPENDING ON HOW THE TIMING OF THE HEAVIEST
SNOW AND STRONGEST WINDS PLAY OUT, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME
BRIEF PERIODS OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE US-2
CORRIDOR WHICH MAY LEAD TO REDUCED VISIBILITY AT TIMES.
HEADING THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY MIGRATE TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN
TOWARDS NORTHERN MANITOBA. IN THE MEANTIME, OUR REGION WILL REMAIN
UNDER A WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO CONTINUE, PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF DAILY CHANCES FOR
MOUNTAIN SNOW THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
COOL THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE A WARMING TREND STARTS BACK UP BY
THE EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE
FURTHER EAST AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD BACK UP IN
ITS PLACE.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL MONTANA SNOW:
FOR THE MOST PART THE GOING FORECAST FROM EARLIER TODAY REMAINS ON
TRACK IN TERMS OF THE EXPECTED IMPACTS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
ONE WILD CARD THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING WILL BE THE LITTLE BELTS.
THE CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNING ENDS AT 6 PM TONIGHT AND, AS OF
NOW, THE SNOWFALL THAT IS FORECASTED BETWEEN 6 PM TONIGHT AND NOON
TOMORROW IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN EXTENSION OF THE
WARNING. SO FOR NOW A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ADDED ON TO
ACCOUNT FOR SNOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTFUL BUT NOT SEVERE.
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE LITTLE BELTS COULD OVER-PERFORM WHICH
MIGHT WARRANT AN UPGRADE AT A LATER TIME BUT EVEN THIS AFTERNOON
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THAT WILL HAPPEN.
OTHERWISE, THERE WAS NO NEED TO ADD ANY ADDITIONAL ZONES TO THE
ADVISORIES ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MONTANA.
HI-LINE SNOW:
THERE IS HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ALONG
THE HI-LINE TO WARRANT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES. THE TWO WILD
CARDS WILL BE THE SWEETGRASS HILLS AND THE BEARS PAW. THE
SWEETGRASS HILLS COULD POTENTIALLY GET CLOSE TO WARNING CRITERIA
BUT BECAUSE HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO
EXPAND OVER A WIDER AREA PAST THE HILLS, THE DECISION WAS MADE TO
KEEP IT AS AN ADVISORY FOR NOW.
FOR THE BEARS PAW, GIVEN THE SETUP WITH COLD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW,
IT IS MUCH MORE LIKELY THAT AREAS ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE MOUNTAINS OVER-PERFORM AND RECEIVE MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS
COMPARED TO THE SURROUNDING PORTIONS OF THE HI-LINE. FOR THIS
REASON, A WINTER STORM WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR THE BEARS PAW WITH
THE MOST IMPACTFUL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED ABOVE 4000 FEET. THIS
COULD MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT ALONG AREA ROADS INCLUDING MONTANA
234.
ONE CONCERN PARTICULAR TO THE HI-LINE TOMORROW WILL BE STRONG
WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
ISSUE ANOTHER HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE REGION BUT WITH GUSTS UP
TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE, THERE IS A CONCERN THAT IF THE HEAVIER
SNOWFALL RATES OVERLAP WITH THE STRONGER WIND GUSTS THERE COULD
BE PERIODS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY ALONG AREA ROADS. MOTORISTS
SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR SUDDEN REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY ALONG AREA
ROADS. -THOR
AVIATION
24/06Z TAF PERIOD
AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL AFFECT SOUTHWEST MT THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL MT
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT RATHER STRONG SURFACE WINDS OVER
NORTH CENTRAL MT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL. CONDITIONS
SLOWLY IMPROVE FRIDAY EVENING, AS SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISH AND WINDS
BEGIN TO DECREASE. MOUNTAINS/PASSES WILL BE OBSCURED ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA THROUGH THE PERIOD. BRUSDA
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 22 37 20 42 / 40 60 40 20
CTB 21 35 18 37 / 30 70 30 30
HLN 23 40 21 45 / 70 50 30 20
BZN 21 39 18 46 / 70 60 20 20
WYS 13 34 10 42 / 70 60 10 20
DLN 21 38 17 47 / 70 50 10 10
HVR 24 33 21 40 / 30 70 40 20
LWT 21 33 19 40 / 20 50 20 30
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM FRIDAY TO NOON MDT SATURDAY
FOR EASTERN GLACIER, WESTERN TOOLE, AND CENTRAL PONDERA-EASTERN
TOOLE AND LIBERTY-HILL COUNTY-NORTHERN BLAINE COUNTY-NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM FRIDAY TO NOON MDT SATURDAY FOR
BEARS PAW MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN BLAINE.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT FRIDAY FOR BEAVERHEAD AND
WESTERN MADISON BELOW 6000FT-BIG BELT, BRIDGER AND CASTLE
MOUNTAINS-ELKHORN AND BOULDER MOUNTAINS-GALLATIN VALLEY-LITTLE
BELT AND HIGHWOOD MOUNTAINS-MADISON RIVER VALLEY-MISSOURI
HEADWATERS-NORTHWEST BEAVERHEAD COUNTY-RUBY MOUNTAINS AND
SOUTHERN BEAVERHEAD MOUNTAINS-UPPER BLACKFOOT AND MACDONALD PASS.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT FRIDAY FOR GALLATIN AND
MADISON COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND CENTENNIAL MOUNTAINS.
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