200
FXUS65 KTFX 241754
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1154 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2026
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- TODAY THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD SNOW WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW
ALONG THE HI-LINE AND IN SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA.
- TODAY THROUGH MONDAY IT WILL BE COLD WITH A WARM UP EXPECTED
FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
- ON SATURDAY THERE WILL BE SNOW ALONG THE HI-LINE AND ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE.
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 526 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2026/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
TODAY THERE IS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL,
AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. THIS COMBINED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL BRING SNOW TO SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY. EARLY THIS MORNING STRONG NORTHWEST LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL
BRING GUSTY WINDS AND SNOW ALONG THE HI-LINE AND TO THE BEARS PAW
MOUNTAINS. THIS SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THIS
AFTERNOON THERE WILL BE ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. TODAY IT WILL
REMAIN WELL-BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR TEMPERATURES. TODAY DUE TO
STRONG LOW-LEVEL WINDS IT WILL BE WINDY ALONG THE HI-LINE. ON
SATURDAY MORNING STRONG NORTHWEST LOW-LEVEL WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE
OVER THE HI-LINE AND THE BEARS PAW MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING SNOWFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE HI-LINE AND TO THE BEARS
PAW MOUNTAINS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. ON SATURDAY THE UPPER-
LEVEL-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND
SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVER
THE AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REST OF NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND
SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. ON SATURDAY IT WILL REMAIN WELL-BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR TEMPERATURES. ON SUNDAY THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH REMAINS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN
MONTANA. IT BEGINS TO EXIT THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. DUE TO THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY IT WILL REMAIN WELL-BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES WITH ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS.
ON MONDAY THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL,
CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
APPROACHING MONTANA. THIS WILL ALLOW THE AREA TO BE MOSTLY DRY WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING UP SLIGHTLY. TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AN UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY MOVES OVER NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND
SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY WARM
UP WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER. -IG
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
TODAY THERE IS A 15 - 30% CHANCE FOR 1 INCH OF SNOWFALL OR GREATER
ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. TODAY ALONG THE HI-LINE
THERE IS GREATER THAN A 60% CHANCE FOR 1 INCH OF SNOW OR GREATER
TODAY. TODAY IN THE SWEET GRASS HILLS THERE IS GREATER THAN A 50%
CHANCE FOR 4 INCHES OF SNOW OR GREATER. TODAY THERE IS AROUND A 50%
CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS OF 55 MPH OR GREATER ALONG WIND PRONE AREAS
OF THE HI-LINE AND THE BEARS PAW MOUNTAINS. TODAY IN THE SWEET
GRASS HILLS AND BEARS PAW MOUNTAINS THERE IS A 60% CHANCE FOR A
THREE HOUR WINDOW OF VISIBILITY LESS THAN A QUARTER MILE AND WIND
GUSTS GREATER THAN 35 MPH. DUE TO LOWER CONFIDENCE IN STRONG
WINDS AND VISIBILITY OF A QUARTER MILE OR LESS HAPPENING AT THE
SAME TIME FOR THREE HOURS A BLIZZARD WARNING WAS NOT ISSUED AT
THIS TIME. HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE BLOWING SNOW AND SIGNIFICANTLY
REDUCED VISIBILITY AT TIMES IN THE SWEET GRASS HILLS AND BEARS PAW
MOUNTAINS TODAY.
TODAY THERE IS A 30 - 50% CHANCE FOR 4 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE
LITTLE BELTS AND MADISON AND GALLATIN MOUNTAINS. AS A RESULT THERE
ARE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA AND ALONG THE HI-LINE. A WINTER STORM WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BEARS PAW MOUNTAINS AS WELL DUE TO
FAVORABLE UPSLOPE WINDS. SEE THE TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SECTION FOR DETAILS. DUE TO LIGHT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED IN THE
VALLEYS OF SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
WILL MOST LIKELY BE CANCELLED EARLY. ON SATURDAY THERE IS A 30 -
60% CHANCE FOR 2 INCHES OF SNOW OR GREATER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF
NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA. ON SUNDAY ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH-CENTRAL
MONTANA THERE IS AT LEAST A 20% CHANCE FOR AN INCH OF SNOW OR
GREATER. -IG
AVIATION
24/18Z TAF PERIOD
COLD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW
STRATUS, SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY, AND ASSOCIATED PERIODIC MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS/MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION FOR THE DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD.
CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL AREAS WILL SEE THE MOST PERSISTENT DEGRADED
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY OVER AND NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN. - RCG
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 37 20 42 23 / 60 40 20 20
CTB 35 18 37 18 / 70 40 20 10
HLN 40 21 45 24 / 60 40 30 20
BZN 39 18 46 23 / 60 20 20 20
WYS 34 10 42 19 / 60 10 20 20
DLN 38 17 47 24 / 50 10 10 20
HVR 33 21 40 21 / 70 50 10 10
LWT 33 19 40 20 / 60 20 20 20
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT SATURDAY FOR EASTERN
GLACIER, WESTERN TOOLE, AND CENTRAL PONDERA-EASTERN TOOLE AND
LIBERTY-HILL COUNTY-NORTHERN BLAINE COUNTY-NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT SATURDAY FOR BEARS PAW
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN BLAINE.
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page