247
FXUS65 KTFX 242111
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
311 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
MONTANA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
- DAILY CHANCES FOR LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW THROUGH MONDAY.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE
GRADUALLY WARMING UP TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA ON THE
BACKSIDE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER SASKATCHEWAN. THE
MAIN CONCERNS THROUGH THE EVENING WILL BE PERIODS OF REDUCED
VISIBILITY AND SLICK ROADS. SNOW WILL START TO TAPER OFF DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND IS EXPECTED TO END MID TO LATE SATURDAY
MORNING.
COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY TRACKS ITS WAY INTO NORTHERN MANITOBA.
THE MAIN IMPACT WILL COME IN THE FORM OF LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SOME LIGHT SNOW COULD
REACH NEARBY LOWER ELEVATIONS AT TIMES.
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THE TROUGH DEPARTS FURTHER
EASTWARD AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS IN
ITS PLACE ALLOWING FOR A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
AS OF NOW THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AND WARNING
REMAINS ON TRACK. THE MAIN ITEM TO WATCH OVER THE 6 TO 12 HOURS
WILL BE HOW THE SNOW BANDS SET UP WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME LOCALLY
HEAVIER AMOUNTS THAT MIGHT BE PROBLEMATIC FOR THOSE HEADING OUT
TONIGHT. HI-RES GUIDANCE POINTS TO MORE LOCALIZED BANDING VERSUS
BROAD BANDING ACROSS A ZONE SO NO ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES WILL BE
ISSUED AT THIS TIME. BUT THIS SITUATION WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY
IN CASE THINGS CHANGE.
WHEN LOOKING AT THE MOUNTAIN SNOW POTENTIAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO WARRANT PUTTING OUT ADDITIONAL
ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME AS SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW 2 INCHES. SHOULD SNOW TOTALS START TO
INCREASE IN FUTURE MODEL UPDATES, THIS SITUATION MAY NEED TO BE
REEVALUATED BUT FOR NOW THE IMPACTS LOOK TO BE VERY MINOR AT BEST.
-THOR
AVIATION
24/18Z TAF PERIOD
COLD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW
STRATUS, SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY, AND ASSOCIATED PERIODIC MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS/MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION FOR THE DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD.
CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL AREAS WILL SEE THE MOST PERSISTENT DEGRADED
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY OVER AND NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN. - RCG
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 23 41 24 40 / 40 20 20 50
CTB 20 37 19 37 / 40 20 10 30
HLN 22 45 24 44 / 40 30 20 40
BZN 18 47 22 47 / 20 20 20 40
WYS 10 43 19 45 / 10 20 20 60
DLN 19 47 24 49 / 10 10 20 30
HVR 20 40 20 44 / 50 10 10 30
LWT 18 38 20 39 / 20 20 20 60
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT SATURDAY FOR EASTERN
GLACIER, WESTERN TOOLE, AND CENTRAL PONDERA-EASTERN TOOLE AND
LIBERTY-HILL COUNTY-NORTHERN BLAINE COUNTY-NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT SATURDAY FOR BEARS PAW
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN BLAINE.
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