917
FXUS65 KTFX 242343
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
543 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2026
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
MONTANA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
- DAILY CHANCES FOR LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW THROUGH MONDAY.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE
GRADUALLY WARMING UP TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 311 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2026/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA ON THE
BACKSIDE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER SASKATCHEWAN. THE
MAIN CONCERNS THROUGH THE EVENING WILL BE PERIODS OF REDUCED
VISIBILITY AND SLICK ROADS. SNOW WILL START TO TAPER OFF DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND IS EXPECTED TO END MID TO LATE SATURDAY
MORNING.
COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY TRACKS ITS WAY INTO NORTHERN MANITOBA.
THE MAIN IMPACT WILL COME IN THE FORM OF LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SOME LIGHT SNOW COULD
REACH NEARBY LOWER ELEVATIONS AT TIMES.
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THE TROUGH DEPARTS FURTHER
EASTWARD AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS IN
ITS PLACE ALLOWING FOR A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
AS OF NOW THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AND WARNING
REMAINS ON TRACK. THE MAIN ITEM TO WATCH OVER THE 6 TO 12 HOURS
WILL BE HOW THE SNOW BANDS SET UP WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME LOCALLY
HEAVIER AMOUNTS THAT MIGHT BE PROBLEMATIC FOR THOSE HEADING OUT
TONIGHT. HI-RES GUIDANCE POINTS TO MORE LOCALIZED BANDING VERSUS
BROAD BANDING ACROSS A ZONE SO NO ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES WILL BE
ISSUED AT THIS TIME. BUT THIS SITUATION WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY
IN CASE THINGS CHANGE.
WHEN LOOKING AT THE MOUNTAIN SNOW POTENTIAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO WARRANT PUTTING OUT ADDITIONAL
ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME AS SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW 2 INCHES. SHOULD SNOW TOTALS START TO
INCREASE IN FUTURE MODEL UPDATES, THIS SITUATION MAY NEED TO BE
REEVALUATED BUT FOR NOW THE IMPACTS LOOK TO BE VERY MINOR AT BEST.
-THOR
AVIATION
25/00Z TAF PERIOD
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KBZN, KEKS, KWYS, AND KHLN
TERMINALS DURING THE DURATION OF THIS TAF PERIOD. AT THE KCTB, KGTF,
KHVR, AND KLWT TERMINALS THERE WILL SNOW SHOWERS FOR AT LEAST FIRST
FEW HOURS OF THIS TAF PERIOD. HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITY TO IFR-LEVELS OR LOWER. AT ALL BUT THE KEKS, KWYS, AND
KBZN TERMINALS THERE IS AT LEAST A 10% CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS
DURING THE MAJORITY OF THIS TAF PERIOD. AT THE KBZN TERMINAL THERE
IS A 15% CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS AFTER 25/21Z THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD. THERE WILL PERIODS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION
PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA THROUGH THE MAJORITY THIS
TAF PERIOD. -IG
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 23 41 24 40 / 40 20 20 50
CTB 20 37 19 37 / 40 20 10 30
HLN 22 45 24 44 / 40 30 20 40
BZN 18 47 22 47 / 20 20 20 40
WYS 10 43 19 45 / 10 20 20 60
DLN 19 47 24 49 / 10 10 20 30
HVR 20 40 20 44 / 50 10 10 30
LWT 18 38 20 39 / 20 20 20 60
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT SATURDAY FOR EASTERN
GLACIER, WESTERN TOOLE, AND CENTRAL PONDERA-EASTERN TOOLE AND
LIBERTY-HILL COUNTY-NORTHERN BLAINE COUNTY-NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT SATURDAY FOR BEARS PAW
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN BLAINE.
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