252
FXUS65 KTFX 250542
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1142 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2026
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
MONTANA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
- DAILY CHANCES FOR LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW THROUGH MONDAY.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE
GRADUALLY WARMING UP TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA ON THE
BACKSIDE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER SASKATCHEWAN. THE
MAIN CONCERNS THROUGH THE EVENING WILL BE PERIODS OF REDUCED
VISIBILITY AND SLICK ROADS. SNOW WILL START TO TAPER OFF DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND IS EXPECTED TO END MID TO LATE SATURDAY
MORNING.
COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY TRACKS ITS WAY INTO NORTHERN MANITOBA.
THE MAIN IMPACT WILL COME IN THE FORM OF LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SOME LIGHT SNOW COULD
REACH NEARBY LOWER ELEVATIONS AT TIMES.
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THE TROUGH DEPARTS FURTHER
EASTWARD AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS IN
ITS PLACE ALLOWING FOR A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
AS OF NOW THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AND WARNING
REMAINS ON TRACK. THE MAIN ITEM TO WATCH OVER THE 6 TO 12 HOURS
WILL BE HOW THE SNOW BANDS SET UP WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME LOCALLY
HEAVIER AMOUNTS THAT MIGHT BE PROBLEMATIC FOR THOSE HEADING OUT
TONIGHT. HI-RES GUIDANCE POINTS TO MORE LOCALIZED BANDING VERSUS
BROAD BANDING ACROSS A ZONE SO NO ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES WILL BE
ISSUED AT THIS TIME. BUT THIS SITUATION WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY
IN CASE THINGS CHANGE.
WHEN LOOKING AT THE MOUNTAIN SNOW POTENTIAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO WARRANT PUTTING OUT ADDITIONAL
ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME AS SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW 2 INCHES. SHOULD SNOW TOTALS START TO
INCREASE IN FUTURE MODEL UPDATES, THIS SITUATION MAY NEED TO BE
REEVALUATED BUT FOR NOW THE IMPACTS LOOK TO BE VERY MINOR AT BEST.
-THOR
AVIATION
25/06Z TAF PERIOD
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE ISOLATED AFTER 12Z SAT.
SOME OF THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS COULD REDUCE VISIBILITY BELOW 1
MILE FOR A SHORT TIME. IT IS LIKELY THE UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS WELL. MOUNTAINS/PASSES
WILL BE OBSCURED AT TIMES ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
BRUSDA
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 20 41 23 39 / 40 20 20 50
CTB 17 37 19 35 / 40 30 20 30
HLN 21 43 25 42 / 40 30 30 50
BZN 19 46 23 44 / 20 20 20 50
WYS 8 41 19 44 / 0 20 20 70
DLN 17 47 24 47 / 10 10 10 40
HVR 20 38 20 41 / 40 20 10 10
LWT 19 38 20 37 / 30 20 20 70
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT SATURDAY FOR EASTERN
TOOLE AND LIBERTY.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT SATURDAY FOR BEARS PAW
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN BLAINE.
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