789
FXUS65 KTFX 251129
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
529 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2026
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- TODAY THROUGH MONDAY IT WILL BE COLD WITH A WARM UP EXPECTED
FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
- TODAY THERE WILL BE ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
AND CENTRAL MONTANA.
- ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY THERE WILL BE PRIMARILY MOUNTAIN SNOW.
DISCUSSION
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
TODAY THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL,
AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING. THIS COMBINED WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL BRING ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTH-CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL MONTANA. TODAY IT WILL REMAIN WELL-BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES
FOR TEMPERATURES. ON SUNDAY THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER
NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. DUE TO THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY IT WILL REMAIN WELL-BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES WITH ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS PRIMARILY IN THE MOUNTAINS OF
NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA.
ON MONDAY THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL,
CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
APPROACHING MONTANA. THIS WILL ALLOW THE AREA TO BE MOSTLY DRY WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING UP SLIGHTLY. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS OF NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. ON
TUESDAY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL,
AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL WITH
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IN LOWER-ELEVATION
UPSLOPE FAVORED AREAS. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AN UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE GRADUALLY MOVES OVER NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND
SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY
WARM UP WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER. -IG
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
TODAY THERE IS A 40 - 60% CHANCE FOR 1 INCH OF SNOW OR GREATER
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA. THERE ARE LOW
PROBABILITIES FOR IMPACTFUL SNOW ALONG THE HI-LINE. THE GREATEST
RISK FOR ANY IMPACTFUL SNOW IS IN A SNOW SHOWER IN WHICH THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE. AS A RESULT, ALL OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
EXCEPT FOR THE SWEET GRASS HILLS ADVISORY WERE CANCELLED. SEE THE
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES SECTION DETAILS. SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY THERE IS A 50 - 70% CHANCE FOR 4 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE
LITTLE BELTS AND MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY THERE IS A 15 - 30% CHANCE FOR ONE INCH OF SNOW OR GREATER
FOR THE LOWER-ELEVATIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND
SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MONTANA HIGHWAY 200
CORRIDOR. -IG
AVIATION
25/12Z TAF PERIOD
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE ISOLATED AFTER 18Z.
SOME OF THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS COULD REDUCE VISIBILITY BELOW 1
MILE FOR A SHORT TIME. IT IS LIKELY THE UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS WELL. MOUNTAINS/PASSES
WILL BE OBSCURED AT TIMES ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
BRUSDA
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 41 23 39 24 / 20 20 50 30
CTB 37 19 35 16 / 30 20 30 10
HLN 43 25 42 25 / 30 30 50 30
BZN 46 23 44 25 / 20 20 50 50
WYS 41 19 44 21 / 20 20 70 60
DLN 47 24 47 27 / 10 10 40 50
HVR 38 20 41 20 / 20 10 10 10
LWT 38 20 37 21 / 20 20 70 50
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR EASTERN TOOLE
AND LIBERTY.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR BEARS PAW
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN BLAINE.
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