192
FXUS65 KTFX 251755
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1155 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2026
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- TODAY THROUGH MONDAY IT WILL BE COLD WITH A WARM UP EXPECTED
FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
- TODAY THERE WILL BE ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
AND CENTRAL MONTANA.
- ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY THERE WILL BE PRIMARILY MOUNTAIN SNOW.
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 529 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2026/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
TODAY THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL,
AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING. THIS COMBINED WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL BRING ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTH-CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL MONTANA. TODAY IT WILL REMAIN WELL-BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES
FOR TEMPERATURES. ON SUNDAY THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER
NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. DUE TO THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY IT WILL REMAIN WELL-BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES WITH ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS PRIMARILY IN THE MOUNTAINS OF
NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA.
ON MONDAY THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL,
CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
APPROACHING MONTANA. THIS WILL ALLOW THE AREA TO BE MOSTLY DRY WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING UP SLIGHTLY. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS OF NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. ON
TUESDAY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL,
AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL WITH
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IN LOWER-ELEVATION
UPSLOPE FAVORED AREAS. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AN UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE GRADUALLY MOVES OVER NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND
SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY
WARM UP WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER. -IG
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
TODAY THERE IS A 40 - 60% CHANCE FOR 1 INCH OF SNOW OR GREATER
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA. THERE ARE LOW
PROBABILITIES FOR IMPACTFUL SNOW ALONG THE HI-LINE. THE GREATEST
RISK FOR ANY IMPACTFUL SNOW IS IN A SNOW SHOWER IN WHICH THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE. AS A RESULT, ALL OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
EXCEPT FOR THE SWEET GRASS HILLS ADVISORY WERE CANCELLED. SEE THE
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES SECTION DETAILS. SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY THERE IS A 50 - 70% CHANCE FOR 4 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE
LITTLE BELTS AND MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY THERE IS A 15 - 30% CHANCE FOR ONE INCH OF SNOW OR GREATER
FOR THE LOWER-ELEVATIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND
SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MONTANA HIGHWAY 200
CORRIDOR. -IG
AVIATION
25/18Z TAF PERIOD
AREA REMAINS BENEATH A MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE CYCLONIC
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THIS WILL MAINTAIN
LOWER VFR TO MVFR CLOUD CEILINGS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WITH
PERIODS OF INCREASED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BRING THE RISK OF BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS TO MOST
TERMINALS WITH A PERIOD OF MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS AND
ASSOCIATED MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE
ROCKY MTN FRONT AND KCTB TERMINAL, POTENTIALLY EXPANDING TO
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. HOENISCH
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 41 24 39 22 / 40 50 50 30
CTB 37 19 35 15 / 40 50 70 10
HLN 44 23 42 25 / 30 30 40 30
BZN 46 22 44 25 / 10 20 30 60
WYS 41 17 44 21 / 10 10 60 70
DLN 47 23 47 27 / 10 10 20 50
HVR 38 20 41 20 / 30 40 20 10
LWT 38 20 37 22 / 30 30 50 50
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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