939
FXUS65 KTFX 261753
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1153 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2026
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODS OF RAIN/SNOW/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
WELL.
- TEMPERATURES MIGHT GO ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY, BUT COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS RETURN BY SUNDAY.
UPDATE
/ISSUED 805 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2026/
805 AM UPDATE...MID- LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY COMBINED WITH COLD,
UPSLOPE EASTERLY FLOW IS SUPPORTING AN AREA OF STEADY SNOW ALONG
THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS.
ACCUMULATING SNOW EFFICIENCY AND ASSOCIATED IMPACTS CONTINUE TO BE
MOST SIGNIFICANT OVER THE PLAINS AND FOOTHILL ADJACENT TO THE
NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT, WITH MORE SCATTERED IMPACTS TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST.
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NOON FOR THE MOST
IMPACTED AREAS AND A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WAS SENT OUT TO
ADDRESS THE MINOR WINTER IMPACTS ELSEWHERE. THIS AREA OF SNOW
WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD AND BECOME MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. ADDITIONALLY, DIURNAL HEATING WILL BEGIN TO
PRECLUDE ROADWAY ACCUMULATIONS. POPS WERE RAISED THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON TO MATCH UP WITH CURRENT TRENDS. - RCG
425 AM UPDATE...UPDATED MORNING FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS OVER
CHOUTEAU COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING. A BAND OF SNOW HAS SET UP,
MAINLY BETWEEN FORT BENTON AND BOX ELDER. THIS BAND OF SNOW SHOULD
START TO DECREASE AFTER 6 AM. BRUSDA
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 805 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2026/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA, WITH A LARGE
CIRCULATION, WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WEATHER OVER THE CWA FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. COOL AIR ALOFT, COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
DAILY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. THE OVERALL PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE, BUT SOME SHORT PERIODS OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW ARE LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY. THERE WILL BE JUST
ENOUGH INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS THAT SOME ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. OVERALL, BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE DAILY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH TODAY AND
MONDAY BEING THE COOLEST DAYS.
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN CANADA WILL
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST, AS A NEW UPPER LEVEL TROF BEGINS TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST BY SATURDAY. THIS TROF WILL
INFLUENCE THE WEATHER OVER OUR CWA, WITH A MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMER AIR PUSHING
NORTHWARD INTO THE CWA, BUT ALSO ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
EVENT A THUNDERSTORM TO MOVE BACK INTO THE CWA BY SUNDAY.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND IN THE BROWNING AREA.
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW WILL AFFECT THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. AT THIS TIME, I ONLY HAVE
ABOUT AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON THE MOUNTAIN PASSES,
THUS HOLDING OFF ON AN ADVISORY FOR NOW. IT IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY
THAT AN SPS WILL BE NEEDED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. BRUSDA
AVIATION
26/18Z TAF PERIOD
SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A MOIST LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL
MAINTAIN LOW STRATUS, MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION AND PERIODS OF LIGHT
SNOW OVER NORTH- CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MT FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
THE FOCUS OF THE SNOW WILL SHIFT INTO SOUTHWEST MT AFTER 26/21Z,
BUT MVFR/IFR STRATUS WILL LINGER FOR MOST TERMINALS THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. - RCG
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 38 22 48 28 / 90 20 30 10
CTB 34 13 46 22 / 90 10 10 0
HLN 42 24 49 28 / 40 30 50 10
BZN 46 25 46 25 / 40 50 70 20
WYS 44 20 43 20 / 60 70 80 40
DLN 49 27 47 27 / 30 50 60 10
HVR 41 18 48 25 / 50 10 10 10
LWT 38 20 43 23 / 60 40 50 20
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR EAST GLACIER
PARK REGION-NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
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