139
FXUS65 KTFX 271756
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1156 AM MDT MON APR 27 2026
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- TODAY IT WILL BE COOL WITH A WARM UP EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF
THIS WEEK.
- TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF PRIMARILY
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WITH LIGHT SNOW THIS MORNING IN THE
VALLEYS OF SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA.
- THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IT WILL BE WARM AND DRY WITH PRECIPITATION
RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1151 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2026/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
ON MONDAY THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL,
CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA, BUT THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW HAS MOVED
EAST OF MONTANA. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP SLIGHTLY.
HOWEVER THERE WILL BE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTH-
CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA TODAY. THE HEAVIEST SNOW
WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA AND THE LITTLE
BELTS. THIS MORNING THERE WILL ALSO BE LIGHT SNOW IN THE VALLEYS OF
SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. MONDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES THERE WILL BE ISOLATED RUMBLES OF THUNDER IN
SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. ON TUESDAY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS OVER
NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IN LOWER-ELEVATION NORTHWESTERLY
UPSLOPE FAVORED AREAS. ON TUESDAY THERE WILL BE ISOLATED RUMBLES OF
THUNDER IN CENTRAL MONTANA DUE TO THE WARMER TEMPERATURES.
ON WEDNESDAY AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO APPROACH MONTANA WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN
MONTANA. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES. THERE
WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED LOWER-
ELEVATIONS SEEING SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHWESTERLY UPSLOPE FAVORED
AREAS. DUE TO THE WARM TEMPERATURES OF WEDNESDAY THERE WILL BE
ISOLATED RUMBLES OF THUNDER ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE GRADUALLY MOVES OVER
NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY WARM UP WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER. SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE OVER MONTANA.
THIS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION TO NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA.
-IG
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA TOMORROW MORNING THERE IS
GREATER THAN A 50% CHANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES OF 20 DEGREES OR
COLDER. ALONG THE HI-LINE THIS MORNING THERE IS A 40
- 70% CHANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES OF 15 DEGREES OR COLDER. ALONG THE
HI-LINE THIS MORNING THERE IS A 20 - 50% CHANCE FOR WIND CHILLS OF
10 DEGREES OR COLDER. TODAY THERE IS A 50 - 80% CHANCE FOR 1 INCH OF
SNOW ACROSS THE LITTLE BELTS AND MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA.
TODAY THERE IS A 10 - 15% CHANCE FOR THUNDER IN SOUTHWESTERN
MONTANA. ON TUESDAY THERE IS A 15% CHANCE FOR THUNDER IN CENTRAL
MONTANA. ON WEDNESDAY THERE IS A 15% CHANCE FOR THUNDER IN CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. -IG
AVIATION
27/18Z TAF PERIOD
PASSING SHORTWAVES WILL MAINTAIN PERIODS OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN
LOW VFR/MVFR CLOUDS, MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION, AND WIDELY SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE DURATION OF THE PERIOD. MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MT, ESPECIALLY
OVER AND NEAR AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN. KWYS WILL OBSERVE THE MOST
PERSISTENT DEGRADED CONDITIONS. - RCG
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 50 28 57 34 / 10 10 20 10
CTB 47 23 55 31 / 10 0 10 10
HLN 50 28 57 34 / 40 10 30 10
BZN 47 24 54 30 / 50 20 30 10
WYS 42 18 46 21 / 80 40 40 10
DLN 48 26 54 31 / 60 10 10 0
HVR 50 24 59 30 / 0 0 0 0
LWT 44 23 53 30 / 30 10 40 10
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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