284
FXUS65 KTFX 281823
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1223 PM MDT TUE APR 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS, WITH EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO, WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH A
MODERATING TRENDING ON THURSDAY BEFORE VALUES CLIMB WELL ABOVE
NORMAL ON FRIDAY.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
MOIST, AND UNSTABLE, NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS, AND EVEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM, CHANCES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES BENEATH
THIS FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ANYWHERE FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY AND GUSTY FROM THE AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS EACH DAY THANKS TO MIXING AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY, BUT WILL QUICKLY DECREASE WITH THE LOSS OF SUNLIGHT AND
BECOME LIGHT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LIGHT OVERNIGHT WINDS AND
RECENT PRECIPITATION MAY SUPPORT PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT, ESPECIALLY
WITHIN THE HIGH VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA, TONIGHT
AND THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THIS
OCCURRING IS QUITE LOW.
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ATTEMPTS TO BUILD EAST FROM THE WESTERN
CONUS/CANADA ON THURSDAY, WITH OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM ON FRIDAY, WITH MOST LOCATIONS RISING
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID-70S AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE BEGINS TO
FLATTEN AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGHING DIGS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS
QUASI-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REDEVELOPS, WITH THIS FLOW REGIME ONCE
AGAIN SUPPORTING DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. -
MOLDAN
AVIATION
28/18Z TAF PERIOD
AN UNSTABLE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESIDE OVER THE CWA
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH COLD AIR ALOFT, THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SINCE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
BE A BIT SCATTERED AND BRIEF, I OPTED FOR PROB30 GROUPS IN THIS
ROUND OF TAFS. LIGHTNING IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT WITH THE
PROBABILITY BEING LESS THAN 15%, THE MENTION OF TSRA WAS LEFT OUT.
OVERNIGHT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPING IN LOCATIONS
THAT RECEIVED RAIN EARLIER IN THE DAY. BECAUSE CONFIDENCE IN WHERE
THE SHOWERS WILL BE IS LOW, CONFIDENCE IN FOG DEVELOPMENT REMAINS
LOW AT THIS TIME. SO FOR NOW IT WAS LEFT OUT OF THE TAF.
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL REMAIN A CONCERN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. -THOR
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 32 56 31 62 / 20 20 0 0
CTB 30 56 29 64 / 20 20 0 0
HLN 33 56 31 62 / 30 40 10 0
BZN 29 55 27 59 / 40 50 20 0
WYS 22 47 20 52 / 30 70 30 10
DLN 31 55 30 59 / 20 50 20 0
HVR 29 58 29 65 / 10 20 0 0
LWT 28 52 27 56 / 40 30 0 0
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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