528
FNUS75 KTFX 030140
FWSTFX
SPOT FORECAST FOR BLACK DIAMOND...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
740 PM MDT SAT MAY 2 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 MDT ON MAY 03.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING ONE MORE MILD DAY WITH LIGHT
WINDS, ALTHOUGH MINIMUM HUMIDITY WILL FALL TO OR NEAR CRITICALLY LOW
VALUES. ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY
WELL SOUTH OF THE BURN SITE, BUT A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM CAN'T BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. SUNDAY NIGHT, A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS THE SITE BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 0300
LOCAL TIME. THIS WILL BRING AN ABRUPT NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WIND
SHIFT WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 25 MPH FOR AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
SUNDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (5-20 PERCENT).
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....66-71.
MIN HUMIDITY........17-22 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........
SLOPE/VALLEY.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WEST 5 TO 10 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......7000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 5 TO 10 MPH.
TIME (MDT) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........5 6 8 12 8 7 13 12
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CHC OF THDR (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 9 9
TEMP............54 58 61 63 66 66 66 68
RH..............46 37 32 28 25 24 23 22
20 FT WIND DIR..W W W W W W W W
20 FT WIND SPD..0 0 5 5 5 5 10 10
20 FT WIND GUST.5 10 10 15 15 15 15 15
MIX HGT (KFT)...3.0 5.5 6.5 6.5 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0
TRANSP WIND DIR.W W W W W W W W
TRANSP WIND SPD.5 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
SUNDAY NIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.
CWR.................LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....38-43.
MAX HUMIDITY........66-71 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........
SLOPE/VALLEY.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH THEN NORTHEAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS
OVER 25 MPH FOR AT LEAST A SHORT PERIOD.
MIXING HEIGHT.......0 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH THEN NORTHEAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INCREASING 15 TO 25 MPH.
TIME (MDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........38 38 38 37 37 37 33 33 33 50 50 50
WEATHER COV..... SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 10 10 10 10
CHC OF THDR (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............66 64 61 55 53 50 48 47 46 45 44 43
RH..............23 25 31 39 42 45 49 52 54 57 62 68
20 FT WIND DIR..W W W W W W W N N NE NE NE
20 FT WIND SPD..10 10 10 5 5 5 5 15 15 10 10 10
20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 15 10 10 10 25 25 20 20 15
MIX HGT (KFT)...6.5 5.5 3.5 1.0 0.1 0.1 1.0 1.0 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5
TRANSP WIND DIR.W W W W W NW NW NW N NE NE NE
TRANSP WIND SPD.10 10 10 5 5 5 5 20 25 25 25 20
MONDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY.
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...10 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....46-51.
MIN HUMIDITY........40-45 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........
SLOPE/VALLEY.......NORTHEAST WINDS DECREASING TO 5 TO 15 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 15 TO 20 MPH.
TIME (MDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........65 65 65 78 78 78 80 80 80 73 73 73
WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS RS
TSTM COV........
CWR.............10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
CHC OF THDR (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 10
TEMP............42 41 40 40 41 42 43 44 45 45 46 47
RH..............71 72 70 68 65 61 57 54 51 49 46 45
20 FT WIND DIR..NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE
20 FT WIND SPD..10 10 10 10 10 10 5 5 5 10 10 10
20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 20 20 20
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 3.5 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0
TRANSP WIND DIR.NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE
TRANSP WIND SPD.20 20 20 20 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15
FORECASTER...GREELY
REQUESTED BY...JAREL KURTZ
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2612468.1/TFX
.DELDT 05/02/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL JAREL.KURTZ@USDA.GOV, TFX.OPS@NOAA.GOV
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