402
FNUS75 KTFX 261135
FWSTFX
SPOT FORECAST FOR JERICHO CREEK FIRE...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
535 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 0600 MDT ON MAY 26.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
TODAY AND TOMORROW THERE WILL BE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND
THE FIRE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BEGIN TO MOVE OVER THE
FIRE BETWEEN 1200 AND 1500 TODAY. IT WILL BE HOT WITH LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY TODAY WITH A SLIGHT COOLDOWN EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY. TONIGHT THERE WILL BE GOOD HUMIDITY RECOVERY. TODAY AND
TOMORROW WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5 - 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.
ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL PRODUCE GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL.
TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). RAIN
SHOWERS LIKELY AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................30 PERCENT.
AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...30 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....72-77.
MIN HUMIDITY........20-25 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........
SLOPE/VALLEY.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH BECOMING AROUND 10
MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGETOP...........SOUTHEAST AROUND 15 MPH BECOMING 15 TO 20 MPH
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......8000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 10 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST
AROUND 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
TIME (MDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........31 33 41 66 75 74 74 79 73 83 81 81
WEATHER COV.....PTY PTY PTY PTY PTY SCH ARS DEF DEF DEF DEF
WEATHER TYPE....SMK SMK SMK SMK SMK RW SMK SMK SMK SMK SMK TSTM
COV........ SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CWR.............10 10 10 10 10
10 30 30 30 30 30 30 CHC OF THDR (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 20 20 20 30 30
30 TEMP............46 50 53 59 66 70 71 72 71 72 69 68
RH..............70 63 56 46 40 34 31 31 33 35 38 42 20 FT WIND
DIR..S SE S SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE 20 FT WIND SPD..5 5 5 5 5
10 10 10 10 10 10 10 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 15 15 15 20 20 20 20
20 20 RIDGE WIND DIR..S SE SE SE SE SE SE SE E E E SE RIDGE WIND
SPD..15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 20 MIX HGT (KFT)...0.5 0.5
0.5 1.5 3.0 5.0 6.5 8.0 8.0 6.0 5.5 4.0 TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S
S SE SE SE SE SE SE TRANSP WIND SPD.15 10 10 15 15 15 20 20 20 20
20 20
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS
LIKELY AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
IN THE EVENING, THEN CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
LATE IN THE EVENING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS LATE IN THE EVENING. SMOKE EARLY IN THE
EVENING, THEN AREAS OF SMOKE LATE IN THE
EVENING. PATCHY SMOKE IN THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.
CWR.................35 PERCENT DECREASING TO 0 PERCENT OVERNIGHT.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...25 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....41-46.
MAX HUMIDITY........89-94 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........
SLOPE/VALLEY.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH IN THE EVENING
BECOMING LIGHT, THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND
5 MPH AFTER 3 AM BECOMING LIGHT. GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
IN THE EVENING.
RIDGETOP...........SOUTHEAST 15 TO 20 MPH BECOMING EAST 5 TO 10
MPH LATE IN THE EVENING, THEN SHIFTING TO THE
NORTH LATE IN THE EVENING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 5
MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, THEN
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER 3 AM.
TIME (MDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........87 87 85 85 71 73 54 60 34 44 42 45
WEATHER COV.....DEF DEF DEF CHC SCH PTY PTY PTY PTY PTY PTY PTY
WEATHER TYPE....SMK SMK SMK RW RW SMK SMK SMK SMK SMK SMK SMK
TSTM COV........SCH SCH SCH
CWR.............35 35 35 35 35 35 0 0 0 0 0 0
CHC OF THDR (%).25 20 20 10 10 10 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............65 60 56 52 50 49 48 47 47 46 46 45
RH..............52 57 70 78 83 87 87 85 88 86 91 95
20 FT WIND DIR..SE E SE SE E SE SE SE SW SW SW S
20 FT WIND SPD..10 5 5 5 5 5 5 0 0 5 0 0
20 FT WIND GUST.20 15 15 10 10 10 5 5 5 5
RIDGE WIND DIR..SE SE SE SE E N N N N N N N
RIDGE WIND SPD..20 15 15 10 5 5 0 0 5 5 5 5
MIX HGT (KFT)...3.0 2.0 1.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
TRANSP WIND DIR.SE SE SE SE SE SE S SE SE SW SW S
TRANSP WIND SPD.15 15 10 10 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
WEDNESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS IN THE MORNING, THEN RAIN SHOWERS
LIKELY AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON.
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...35 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....69-74.
MIN HUMIDITY........35-40 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........
SLOPE/VALLEY.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH IN
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGETOP...........NORTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST
LATE IN THE MORNING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 5 TO 10 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 15 MPH IN
THE AFTERNOON.
TIME (MDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........54 54 54 53 53 53 76 76 76 76 76 76
WEATHER COV.....PTY SCH LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
WEATHER TYPE....SMK RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........ SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC
CWR.............10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
CHC OF THDR (%).0 0 0 10 10 10 30 30 30 40 40 40
TEMP............44 47 49 53 59 63 65 67 69 69 69 71
RH..............95 89 87 77 70 60 55 51 51 50 46 43
20 FT WIND DIR..N N N NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE
20 FT WIND SPD..0 0 0 5 5 5 10 10 10 10 10 10
20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 5 10 10 10 15 15 15 15 15 15
RIDGE WIND DIR..N NE NE NE NE E E E E E E E
RIDGE WIND SPD..5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 10 10
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.5 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.5 5.5 6.0 4.0 3.5
TRANSP WIND DIR.SE SE E E E E E E E SE E E
TRANSP WIND SPD.5 5 5 5 5 10 10 15 15 15 15 15
FORECASTER...GESELL
REQUESTED BY...WILL MENNING
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2613863.9/TFX
.DELDT 05/26/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL MEGAN.NOLTE@USDA.GOV,AASHDALE@LCCOUNTYMT.GOV,WILLIAM.MENNING@USDA.GOV,MTHDC@FIRENET.GOV,SCOTT.NELSON@DNR.WA.GOV, TFX.OPS@NOAA.GOV
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