453
FXUS65 KTFX 081041
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
441 AM MDT MON JUN 8 2026
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY.
- AN ACTIVE, COOLER WEEK FORECASTED.
- GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1132 PM MDT SUN JUN 7 2026/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
AS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS MOVES OFF TO THE EAST, AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. AS A RESULT, THERE WILL BE DRY
CONDITIONS MONDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. THERE WILL BE A
CONCERN FOR FROST ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MT WITH SOME SOUTHWEST MT
VALLEYS HAVING A CONCERN FOR A HARD FREEZE THIS MORNING. TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY, AN UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH WILL IMPACT THE REGION.
THIS WILL BRING ON AND OFF PRECIPITATION OVER THAT TIME FRAME.
SOUTHWEST FLOW TUESDAY WILL ADVECT IN WEAK INSTABILITY, WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. COLD AIR ALOFT
WORKING IT'S WAY DOWN WILL COOL TEMPERATURES TO BELOW NORMAL
WEDNESDAY. SNOW LEVELS FALLING AS LOW AS 6,500FT WEDNESDAY MORNING
WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT SNOW TO FALL AT THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN PEAKS.
700MB WINDS INCREASE ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND NORTH-CENTRAL MT.
AFTER THAT SYSTEM EXITS, ANOTHER WAVE TRIES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.
MODELS DO DIVERGE A LITTLE BIT THIS WEEKEND, BUT GENERALLY IT LOOKS
TO TREND MORE ACTIVE WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
MODELS DO HAVE THE 700MB JET INCREASING TO 40 TO 50KTS LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTIAN FRONT. THESE WINDS
DO SPREAD A BIT FARTHER OUT TO CENTRAL MT ON WEDNESDAY, SPREADING
OUT THE GUSTY WINDS TO THE EAST. HOWEVER, PROBABILITIES FOR HIGH
WINDS IS LOW, WITH UP TO A 20 TO 40% CHANCE FOR 50 MPH WINDS
ACROSS NORTH- CENTRAL MT AND A 60% CHANCE AT JUDITH BASIN COUNTY.
ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT THERE'S A 40-60% CHANCE FOR 58 MPH
WIND GUSTS WEDNESDAY.
IT SEEMS LIKE THE BEST AREA TO GET PRECIPITATION IS SOUTHWEST MT
WHERE THEY HAVE A 40-70% CHANCE FOR 0.5" OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. EVERYWHERE ELSE, THERE IS GENERALLY BETWEEN A
30 TO 70% CHANCE FOR 0.1" OF PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. -WILSON
AVIATION
08/12Z TAF PERIOD
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF
PERIOD WITH JUST SOME AREAS OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD-COVER STREAMS IN TONIGHT AS
MOISTURE INCREASES WITHIN A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH SHOWERS
MOVING INTO SW MT TERMINALS AFTER 08Z TUE. WEST TO SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS REMAIN BREEZY ACROSS N-CENTRAL MT THOUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH WINDS TURNING EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY THIS EVENING.
HOENISCH
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 72 49 70 46 / 0 0 30 10
CTB 68 46 65 43 / 0 0 0 10
HLN 72 50 68 45 / 0 10 80 10
BZN 72 48 67 38 / 0 10 90 90
WYS 65 37 55 29 / 0 70 100 90
DLN 70 47 66 37 / 0 30 50 50
HVR 73 48 75 46 / 0 0 10 10
LWT 70 46 68 41 / 0 0 60 30
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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