173
FXUS65 KTFX 091730
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1130 AM MDT TUE JUN 9 2026
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND LIKELY AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
- BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH LOCALLY
STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MONTANA ON
WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 440 AM MDT TUE JUN 9 2026/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
AN ACTIVE NORTH PACIFIC JET WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES THROUGH LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
THAT GRADUALLY SHIFTS INLAND AND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY
THIS WEEKEND, BRINGING PERIODS OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
GENERALLY COOL AND BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AT TIMES.
AN INITIAL PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING WITH A BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE AND SOUTHWEST MT BUT BRINGS THE ONSET OF BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS TO MOST AREAS. A SECONDARY PUSH OF COLDER AIR IN THE
MID-UPPER LEVELS SURGES EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SUPPORTING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS, FAVORING AREAS FROM SOUTHWEST MT THROUGH EASTERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MT. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH WITH THIS
INITIAL SERIES OF SHORTWAVES SHIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
WEDNESDAY, BRINGING ADDITIONAL COOLING ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS
AND SOME SHOWERS, MAINLY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MT LATER WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 7000 FT TODAY
AND MAY FALL TO AS LOW AS 6000 FT WEDNESDAY, THOUGH ANY MOUNTAIN
SNOWFALL IS LIKELY TO BE BRIEF WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION. A DRIER
PERIOD FOLLOWS THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE THE
NEXT SERIES OF SHORTWAVES BEGINS TO MOVE IN FROM THE NW LATER
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
CONFIDENCE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DECREASES LATER THIS WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK, BUT MOST LONGER RANGE MODEL ENSEMBLES FAVOR UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BRIEFLY AMPLIFYING OFFSHORE OF THE PACIFIC NW/BC BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS COULD BRING SOME WARMING BUT ALSO MAINTAINS A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES
TO MOVE THROUGH AND A RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOENISCH
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
WHILE MOST AREAS WILL SEE WINDY CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY, A BELT OF
STRONGER MID-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING LOCALLY STRONGER
WINDS TO MUCH OF CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL MT, WHERE A HIGH WIND WATCH
IS IN EFFECT. CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD STRONG (>50MPH) WIND GUSTS
IS LOW, BUT THERE ARE SEVERAL EMBEDDED WIND MAXIMUMS TO MOVE THROUGH
BETWEEN EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WIND MAXIMUM FAVORS MOUNTAIN WAVE
ENHANCED WINDS ALONG AND EAST OF THE ROCKY MTN FRONT WHILE THE
LATER AFTERNOON WIND MAXIMUM FAVORS LOCALIZED STRONGER WINDS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MT, PARTICULARLY NEAR THE ISLAND
MOUNTIAN RANGES. HOENISCH
AVIATION
09/18Z TAF PERIOD
INITIAL CONCERN THIS TAF PERIOD WILL BE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MID-EVENING TIMEFRAME.
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FORM.
INCREASING CROSS BARRIER FLOW WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST BREEZY
WINDS AND GUSTS DEVELOPING ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT, WHICH
WILL SPREAD ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
MOUNTAIN WAVE TURBULENCE AND A FEW INSTANCES OF LOW-LEVEL WIND
SHEAR WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE REGION.
ALL THE WHILE, HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW AND LOWER ELEVATION RAIN NEAR
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THIS EVENING WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. -AM
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 70 45 59 44 / 30 10 50 80
CTB 65 42 54 41 / 20 10 80 60
HLN 68 43 58 43 / 70 20 20 50
BZN 68 37 57 37 / 90 70 50 40
WYS 56 28 51 25 / 100 70 60 10
DLN 66 36 56 33 / 50 40 40 10
HVR 75 45 61 43 / 20 10 80 100
LWT 69 40 57 39 / 80 40 40 90
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR BIG BELT, BRIDGER AND CASTLE MOUNTAINS-FERGUS COUNTY
BELOW 4500FT-GATES OF THE MOUNTAINS-HELENA VALLEY-JUDITH BASIN
COUNTY AND JUDITH GAP-LITTLE BELT AND HIGHWOOD MOUNTAINS-MEAGHER
COUNTY VALLEYS-UPPER BLACKFOOT AND MACDONALD PASS.
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