538
FXUS65 KTFX 101725
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1125 AM MDT WED JUN 10 2026
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY COOL AND WINDY TODAY WITH LOCALLY STRONG WINDS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA.
- SOME HIGHER ELEVATION WET SNOW IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH
ACCUMULATION MAINLY ABOVE 6000 FEET.
- AFTER DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ANOTHER
COOL AND SHOWERY PERIOD IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 453 AM MDT WED JUN 10 2026/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
AN UNSEASONABLY POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND MT TODAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
BE AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH WINDY CONDITIONS
MAKING IT FEEL COLDER. SHOWERS INITIALLY WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD
ALONG NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE INCLUDING THE
GLACIER NP VICINITY THIS MORNING WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE AIRMASS DESTABILIZES
BENEATH COLD/CYCLONIC NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE
TROUGH. AN AREA OF MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO SLIDE
SOUTH ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MT LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND
EVENTUALLY THROUGH EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MT
LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS AN AREA OF MOISTURE ROTATES AROUND
THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH. PRECIPITATION TONIGHT WILL FAVOR AREAS
NEAR THE CENTRAL MT MOUNTAINS AND GALLATIN/BRIDGER RANGES ENHANCED
BY OROGRAPHIC/UPSLOPE MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW. WINDY CONDTIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA TODAY AS UNSEASONABLY STRONG (35-
45KT MID LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THIS EVENING.
A DRIER PERIOD FOLLOWS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
TRENDING BACK TOWARDS SEASONAL LEVELS. ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE
TRACKS SOUTHEAST FROM WESTERN CANADA ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY BRINIGN ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERY AND COOLER
CONDITIONS TO START THE WEEKEND. MOST LONGER RANGE MODEL ENSEMBLES
SUPPORT AN SIMPLIFYING RIDGE EARLY NEXT WEEK CENTERED ALONG THE
PACIFIC NW/BC COAST WHICH FLATTENS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
SHOULD PROVIDE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND INITIALLY DRY CONDITIONS EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HOENISCH
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
SNOW LEVELS WERE GENERALLY AROUND 6500 FT EARLY THIS MORNING AND MAY
FALL TO AS LOW AS 5500 FT FOR A PERIOD LATER THIS MORNING AROUND
GLACIER NP. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATION BELOW 6000
FT IN GLACIER NP IS THIS MORNING WHILE AREAS ABOVE 6000 FT HAVE A 60-
80% PROBABILITY OF SNOW ACCUMULATION TODAY IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED PEAKS ABOVE 7500 FT SEEING HIGHER AMOUNTS. TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION LATER TODAY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL MT AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MT WILL COINCIDE WITH SNOW LEVELS
CLOSER TO 6500 FT. THERE IS 50-60% PROBABILITY FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION
OF 2 INCHES OR MORE OVER KINGS HILL (~7000FT) THIS EVENING.
PRIMARILY IMPACTS FROM ANY MOUNTAIN SNOW TODAY/TONIGHT WILL MAINLY
TO THOSE RECREATING AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN THESE MOUNTAIN
RANGES.
HI-RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW EMEBEDDED AREAS OF STRONGER MID-
LEVEL WIND (45-50KT) MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL MT THIS MORNING AND AGAIN
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL SUPPORT PERIODS WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 50 MPH
ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT THIS MORNING AND GUSTS EXCEEDING 45
MPH ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL MT LATER THIS MORNING AND LIKELY AGAIN
THIS EVENING ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL MT(FERGUS/JB
COUNTIES). THE RISK FOR LOCALIZED GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH ACROSS
CENTRAL MT IS GREATEST (30-60%) ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND BIG BELTS AS WELL AS IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF
THESE AREAS AND THE CENTRAL MT MOUNTAIN/ISLAND RANGES. WITH EXPECTED
ISOLATED COVERAGE OF STRONGER WIND GUSTS THE HIGH WIND WATCH WILL BE
CANCELLED, THOUGH THOSE TRAVELING IN HIGH-PROFILE VEHICLES OR WITH
LIGHTWEIGHT TRAILERS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION. HOENISCH
AVIATION
10/18Z TAF PERIOD
INITIAL CONCERNS THIS TAF PERIOD WILL BE FOR AN AREA OF RAIN MOVING
SOUTH OVER THE PLAINS, WITH AREAS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ADDITIONALLY, BREEZY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE EVENING, SLOWLY SUBSIDING FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT.
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL INCREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT AS THE AREA OF RAIN PROGRESSES THROUGH
THE REGION. LINGERING LOW CLOUDS SLOWLY ERODE TOMORROW MORNING.
-AM
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 60 46 72 44 / 50 70 0 0
CTB 55 42 67 41 / 80 50 0 0
HLN 59 44 72 44 / 10 30 0 0
BZN 57 38 70 39 / 40 30 0 0
WYS 51 25 63 29 / 50 10 0 0
DLN 56 33 71 38 / 30 10 0 0
HVR 60 44 71 43 / 80 80 20 10
LWT 58 39 66 40 / 20 90 10 0
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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