334
FXUS65 KTFX 111839
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1239 PM MDT THU JUN 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON EAST OF I-15 ON
THE PLAINS.
- ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A COLD FRONT.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES REMAIN INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT TREND WARMER
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING BUILDS IN.
DISCUSSION
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION IN WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING. SUFFICIENTLY COOL AIR ALOFT WILL
COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE PLAINS, MOST FOCUSED OVER THE HI-LINE EAST OF
I-15. WHILE GUSTY WINDS WILL BE A CONCERN WITH THE STRONGEST
THUNDERSTORMS, THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT IS NO CONDUCIVE TO STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS.
TROUGHING THEN BEGINS TO WORK SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA FRIDAY, WHICH
WILL RESULT IN SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND
NEAR A COLD FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY PERSISTS INTO THE OVERNIGHT WHILE
SLOWLY PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SLOWLY BUILD SIN FROM THE WEST LATER THIS
WEEKEND. A FEW CHILLY MORNINGS LOOK TO BE IN STORE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BEFORE TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD. A WAVE LOOKS TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WHICH WILL RESULT IN INCREASED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, ALONG WITH BREEZY WINDS. -AM
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
GUIDANCE IS STILL A BIT SPLIT ON EXACT TIMING OF THE PROGRESSION OF
THE FRONT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GUIDANCE MOVES
THE FRONT OVER THE PLAINS LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON, WHICH
WOULD TREND TOWARD A LOWER PROBABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS. GUIDANCE
THAT IS SLOWER WITH THE PROGRESSION MOVES IT THROUGH LATER
AFTERNOON, WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR GREATER INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE FAVORED IN THIS
SCENARIO.
SUNDAY MORNING STILL LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST AHEAD OF THE BUILDING
RIDGE. CLEARING SKIES SHOULD ALLOW MOST AREAS TO DROP INTO THE 30S,
WITH COLD PRONE AREAS GETTING CLOSER TO 30. GIVEN HOW SHORT THE
NIGHTS ARE AT THIS TIME OF THE YEAR, THE DURATION OF ANY FROST OR
FREEZE LOOKS TO BE SHORT LIVED SUNDAY MORNING. -AM
AVIATION
11/18Z TAF PERIOD
PRIMARY CONCERN THIS TAF PERIOD WILL BE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY OVER THE PLAINS OF NORTH-
CENTRAL MONTANA EAST OF I-15. BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS DIMINISH AROUND
SUNSET. -AM
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 44 67 43 61 / 0 60 70 10
CTB 41 60 39 60 / 10 90 40 0
HLN 44 73 45 63 / 0 10 60 20
BZN 39 72 40 62 / 0 0 50 30
WYS 29 69 33 62 / 0 0 10 0
DLN 38 74 40 64 / 0 0 10 0
HVR 42 64 40 65 / 40 50 10 0
LWT 40 64 39 56 / 10 30 60 40
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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