103
FXUS65 KTFX 281814
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1214 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2026
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODS OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS WEEK WILL WARM BACK UP TO
SEASONAL NORMALS BY MIDWEEK.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOST DAYS TUE THRU FRI, WITH SOME
STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 439 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2026/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
OVERALL THE SUMMER STORM IS ON TRACK AND CONTINUES TO AFFECT A
GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN A BIT
BELOW WHAT WAS FORECASTED ALONG THE HI-LINE FROM GLACIER PARK
EASTWARD TO HARLEM, OTHERWISE, THE STORM SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK.
RAINFALL REPORTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE COMMON OVER SOUTHWEST MT,
WITH THE RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW FOR ELEVATIONS MOSTLY ABOVE 7000
FEET OVER SOUTHWEST MT. ABOUT 0.25 TO 0.75 INCHES OF RAIN HAS
FALLEN OVER CENTRAL MT, IN THE HELENA, GREAT FALLS, AND LEWISTOWN
AREAS SO FAR. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION FROM
SOUTHWEST MT TO NORTH CENTRAL MT LATER TODAY. AS THIS OCCURS, THE
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTH
CENTRAL MT LATER TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. OVERALL, EXPECT PERIODS
OF PRECIPITATION TODAY WITH SOUTHWEST MT HARDER HIT THIS MORNING
AND NORTH CENTRAL MT HARDER HIT THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE DAY ON
MONDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME BREAKS IN THE PRECIP AND THUNDERSTORMS
MIXED IN FROM TIME TO TIME AS WELL. AT THIS TIME, NO SEVERE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PULLS AWAY ON TUE, ENDING THE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION AND ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
FAIRLY QUICKLY.
FOR WED THROUGH FRI...AND NEW UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DEVELOP TO OUR
WEST, RESULTING IN A MOIST/UNSTABLE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER
OUR CWA. THIS WILL RESULT IN DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA. SOME OF
THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE LATER IN THE WEEK, ALONG WITH PRODUCE
SOME HEAVY RAINFALL.
FOR NEXT WEEKEND, DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
STARTING ON THE 4TH OF JULY AND CONTINUING INTO SUN. A FEW SHOWERS
LINGER ON SATURDAY, MOSTLY OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA,
OTHERWISE IT IS LOOKING MOSTLY DRY, WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
NEAR NORMAL.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
THE CURRENT WINTER STATEMENTS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. SNOTEL SITES
THIS MORNING ARE NOT REPORTING MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION, MOST LIKELY
BECAUSE OF MELTING. THAT BEING SAID, IMPACTFUL SNOWFALL IS STILL
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT FOR HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHWEST MT.
THE FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE FOR GLACIER PARK FOR NOW. THE
FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG HEAVIER PRECIPITATION TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY FOR GLACIER PARK, WITH SOME AREAS GETTING OVER 3
INCHES OF RAINFALL. SHOULD THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS DECREASE, THE
FLOOD WATCH MIGHT BE CANCELLED EARLY.
LOOKING AHEAD TO WED THRU FRI...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT A
FEW SEVERE STORMS COULD OCCUR, ALONG WITH SOME STORMS PRODUCING
HEAVY RAINFALL. IT IS POSSIBLE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR FLASH
FLOODING OVER SEVERE RISKS COULD BE INTRODUCED INTO THE FORECAST
LATER THIS WEEK. BRUSDA
AVIATION
28/18Z TAF PERIOD
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO CIRCULATE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD AROUND LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE AB/MT BORDER.
MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION REMAIN WIDESPREAD WITH
WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. AN AREA OF
STEADY/WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION PIVOTS AROUND THE LOW ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL MT LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD,
BRINGING A FURTHER REDUCTION IN CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY AND
GREATER LIKELIHOOD FOR IFR. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF NORTH-CENTRAL MT THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS PEAKING IN EXCESS OF
40KTS AT MANY N-CENTRAL MT TERMINALS EARLY THIS EVENING. HOENISCH
HYDROLOGY
PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE CWA FROM TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE
STILL EXPECTED BY MONDAY.
IN THE GLACIER PARK REGION, RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE A BIT
HEAVIER, POSSIBLY UP TO 4 INCHES. ADDITIONALLY, WITH SOME HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW STILL LEFT, THE COMBINATION OF RAINFALL/SNOWMELT
COULD LEAD TO SOME FLOODING ON THE EAST SIDE OF GLACIER NATIONAL
PARK. THUS A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS REGION STARTING
ON SUNDAY. SHOULD LATER FORECAST TODAY DECREASE THE PROJECTED
RAINFALL AMOUNTS, THE FLOOD WATCH MIGHT BE CANCELLED.
ADDITIONAL FLOOD STATEMENT MIGHT BE NEEDED IF RAINFALL AMOUNTS
START TO EXCEED 3 INCHES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CWA. BRUSDA
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 58 46 59 48 / 90 90 90 90
CTB 62 47 62 48 / 90 100 100 80
HLN 54 45 57 47 / 100 100 100 80
BZN 51 39 54 41 / 100 90 100 80
WYS 48 29 47 32 / 90 80 100 70
DLN 49 36 54 39 / 100 100 90 40
HVR 66 47 66 48 / 80 90 90 80
LWT 56 41 57 43 / 100 80 70 80
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR EASTERN TOOLE
AND LIBERTY.
FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR EAST GLACIER PARK REGION.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM MDT MONDAY
FOR BEARS PAW MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN BLAINE-HILL COUNTY-WESTERN
AND CENTRAL CHOUTEAU COUNTY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT MONDAY FOR ELKHORN AND
BOULDER MOUNTAINS-GALLATIN AND MADISON COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND
CENTENNIAL MOUNTAINS-RUBY MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN BEAVERHEAD
MOUNTAINS.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT MONDAY FOR NORTHWEST
BEAVERHEAD COUNTY.
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