907
FXUS65 KTFX 290538
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1138 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGHER TERRAIN SNOW WILL CONTINUE IN SOUTHWEST MONTANA THROUGH
THIS MORNING.
- CONSISTENT RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST,
CENTRAL, AND NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA, DECREASING TONIGHT BEFORE
DISSIPATING EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
- DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE REST
OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH MULTIPLE EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL
LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE IMPACTFUL WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA
TODAY. NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE LOWER TO MID-
LEVELS WILL COMBINE WITH FORCING FROM THE TROUGHING ACROSS THE
REGION TO RESULT IN CONTINUED WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TODAY. THIS
STRATIFORM RAIN WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING. MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL CONTINUE IN SOUTHWEST MONTANA THROUGH
LATE THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LOOK GREATEST NEAR
GLACIER NP, WHERE NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY MID- LEVEL WILL BE
MOST ORTHOGONAL TO TERRAIN. THOSE WITH INTERESTS IN AND NEAR
GLACIER NP SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE RISK FOR ROCKFALL AND CREEK AND
STREAM RISES THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE CWA TOMORROW, ENDING THE
PERSISTENT STRATIFORM RAIN. HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE DAILY CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE WEEK, AS
INSTABILITY IN THE ATMOSPHERE PERSISTS. DESPITE THIS, SHEAR
REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME, INHIBITING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A WARMING TREND, PEAKING
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO HIGH 80S WITH THE
BUILDING OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. - AM AND DZOMBA
AVIATION
29/00Z TAF PERIOD
WET AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE FOUND ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA
TERMINALS (KGTF, KLWT, KHVR, KCTB) THIS EVENING AS A BAND OF
HEAVIER WIND AND RAIN PIVOT THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.
EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE PLAINS AS PRECIPITATION MOVES THROUGH AND
CEILINGS LOWER. SW MT TERMINALS (KBZN, KWYS, KEKS, KHLN) WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN MVFR THIS EVENING, BUT SOME IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
LOWER CEILINGS WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION
REMAINS FAIRLY PERSISTENT ACROSS SW MT AFTER 12Z, BUT BECOMES MORE
SHOWERY ACROSS THE PLAINS ALLOWING FOR SOME OPPORTUNITIES FOR VFR
CONDITIONS. LUDWIG
HYDROLOGY
PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE CWA FROM TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE
STILL EXPECTED BY MONDAY.
IN THE GLACIER PARK REGION, RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE A BIT
HEAVIER, POSSIBLY UP TO 4 INCHES. ADDITIONALLY, WITH SOME HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW STILL LEFT, THE COMBINATION OF RAINFALL/SNOWMELT
COULD LEAD TO SOME FLOODING ON THE EAST SIDE OF GLACIER NATIONAL
PARK. THUS A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS REGION STARTING
ON SUNDAY. SHOULD LATER FORECAST TODAY DECREASE THE PROJECTED
RAINFALL AMOUNTS, THE FLOOD WATCH MIGHT BE CANCELLED.
ADDITIONAL FLOOD STATEMENT MIGHT BE NEEDED IF RAINFALL AMOUNTS
START TO EXCEED 3 INCHES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CWA. BRUSDA
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 58 44 58 48 / 90 100 90 90
CTB 62 47 59 48 / 100 100 90 90
HLN 54 44 56 47 / 100 100 100 80
BZN 51 39 54 42 / 100 90 90 60
WYS 48 28 47 32 / 90 80 100 70
DLN 49 36 55 39 / 100 100 90 40
HVR 66 45 65 48 / 100 90 70 70
LWT 56 41 55 44 / 100 50 80 80
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR EASTERN TOOLE
AND LIBERTY.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR EAST GLACIER PARK REGION.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 3 AM MDT MONDAY FOR BEARS PAW MOUNTAINS
AND SOUTHERN BLAINE-HILL COUNTY-WESTERN AND CENTRAL CHOUTEAU
COUNTY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT MONDAY FOR ELKHORN AND
BOULDER MOUNTAINS-GALLATIN AND MADISON COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND
CENTENNIAL MOUNTAINS-RUBY MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN BEAVERHEAD
MOUNTAINS.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT MONDAY FOR NORTHWEST
BEAVERHEAD COUNTY.
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